Why F1's hot property has nowhere to go

Daniel Ricciardo should hold all the aces. Instead, he's staring at a joker. And it's not at all funny.

Ricciardo is matching the top dogs at Mercedes and Ferrari for victories this season, lies third in the 2018 drivers' championship and drew comparisons to Michael Schumacher after winning in Monaco last weekend. His value to Red Bull is rammed home by team-mate Max Verstappen having one podium and four costly crashes this season. Ricciardo is the best driver on the Formula 1 grid yet to win a world title.

The prospect of a fat pay-rise if he signs a new Red Bull deal is very real, while another carrot dangles in the form of Mercedes and Ferrari being yet to firm up their 2019 driver line-ups. He should have the pick of the best F1 seats for next season, but in reality he has very little choice at all.

Ricciardo has been backed by Red Bull since 2007, but his graduation to the senior F1 team in '14 coincided with its engine partner Renault struggling as the championship moved to a new engine formula. That struggle continues, so Ricciardo has had precious few chances to win, let alone fight for a title.

Now, he has a team-mate who is crashing more than he's scoring podiums, yet it's the young Dutchman who was given a lucrative new deal last year and has been marked out by Red Bull chiefs as the star man; if not a clear favourite now, then at the very least the future of the team.

It's not unreasonable to think Ricciardo's patience has worn thin, for competitive and personal reasons. In a just world, Ricciardo's Monaco triumph would be absolutely perfect for him. It should have removed any lingering doubt that may exist at Red Bull (about doing everything to keep him) or Mercedes and Ferrari (about doing everything to snatch him).

Red Bull has made its intentions to keep Ricciardo clear by putting a new deal on the table, but it also does not seem prepared to wait all year for him to make up his mind. Ricciardo is holding out to see if there's a serious alternative to elevate him above fighting for just a few wins a year and give him the world championship shot he deserves.

The signs suggest this alternative does not exist. Lewis Hamilton has been delaying a new Mercedes deal but is expected to re-sign, while the other car will almost certainly be occupied by either his current team-mate Valtteri Bottas or rising star Esteban Ocon, who Mercedes currently has placed at Force India.

At Ferrari, Kimi Raikkonen's rejuvenated form this season, and the enduring positive relationship between the Finn and Sebastian Vettel, looks almost certain to earn Raikkonen yet another year in F1, should he want to stay. The Scuderia also has the highly-rated Charles Leclerc, a graduate of its driver academy, in mind as well.

A driver having to choose between loyalty and opportunity isn't anything new. Hamilton was in a very similar position to Ricciardo a few years ago, when weighing up staying with McLaren against joining Mercedes. But Mercedes offered a long-term project that was clearly different to what Hamilton had at the time, and was also bending over backwards to persuade him to come.

Ricciardo's situation is different. Ferrari is very happy with the dynamic between Vettel and Raikkonen, while signing Ricciardo would reintroduce Vettel to the only team-mate who has ever beaten him in the championship. Ricciardo's debut year with Red Bull put him up against the four-time world champion and it was the newbie that won the fight, big time: Ricciardo scored three victories; Vettel endured his first winless full season in F1.

Hamilton believes Ricciardo is "pretty much the lead driver" at Red Bull

At Mercedes, Ricciardo is only likely to emerge as a serious option if Hamilton shocks everybody and walks away. That would leave Mercedes needing an established top-line driver and Ricciardo fits that bill better than Bottas currently does. So Ricciardo's best shot at change right now is filling a dead man's boots, and Hamilton looks pretty healthy.

If Ricciardo waits, that might change - but Red Bull is not necessarily going to let him. That the team has placed such expensive eggs in Verstappen's basket is a clear indication of where its long-term priority lies. What's to stop Red Bull deciding that Ricciardo is hanging on too long and Verstappen will thrive as a clear-cut top dog next season? Then it can just promote current Toro Rosso driver Pierre Gasly, or draft Carlos Sainz Jr (who admittedly had a thorny relationship with Verstappen when they were team-mates at Toro Rosso) back from Renault.

That means the man Hamilton believes is "pretty much the lead driver" at Red Bull doesn't really have much choice for next season. Right now, the only place he'd likely be able to force himself into would be a lesser team.

Renault and McLaren, former giants, have certain appeals but represent defeat. Both use the same engine as Red Bull, yet both were nowhere near scoring a podium in Monaco, let alone winning. They would be long-term projects for Ricciardo to invest in, but he wants success now.

Hamilton seems to sympathise with Ricciardo. They joked about it in Monaco last weekend after Ricciardo dominated qualifying, battled an MGU-K failure to earn victory and earned the comparisons to Schumacher taking second place in the 1994 Spanish Grand Prix while stuck in fifth gear. They both know Ricciardo's worth, which Hamilton believes is clear when you compare him to Verstappen.

"We'll see what the others think," smiled Ricciardo in Monaco when Autosport asked if he feels his stock is the highest it's ever been. "I can't pay myself! I feel I've done a really good job the first six races and we've all got two victories..."

Hamilton interrupts: "Are you ahead of your team-mate?"

"Yeah," beamed back Ricciardo.

Hamilton: "Enough said."

Later in the evening, when Autosport asked Hamilton about Ricciardo, the four-time world champion made another reference.

"I said to him he's doing a solid, solid job," said Hamilton. "Ultimately he's got a team-mate that is, from what I hear, making a lot more money than him and yet he's more consistent, keeping the car together a lot more - and, more often than not, pulling through.

"It's important in a team to feel that you're valued according to your contribution. He should definitely have his contract on the table and have his options ready."

Feeling valued is important but Ricciardo would probably take less money to move to Ferrari or Mercedes over a chunky pay-rise at Red Bull. That is an assumption, admittedly, but it is one based on those options being competitively more appealing and that is what Ricciardo craves right now.

Staying at Red Bull would offer no certainty of a title challenge, while moving would boost Ricciardo's confidence that he will have a package to fight for the championship. Red Bull will argue that he can fight on equal terms if he stays where he is, instead of joining Hamilton's Mercedes or playing second-fiddle to Vettel at Ferrari, as Raikkonen has done.

Ricciardo will fancy himself in either of those unfamiliar territories. But we're going around in circles, because where would Ricciardo move to? The man is stuck, undeservedly, in a situation out of his control.

He craves a title shot and has earned it beyond any question. It's not unrealistic that Red Bull could give him that next season, of course. Red Bull's frustration with Renault, and lack of confidence there will be the progress required to fight for titles again, has grown sufficiently for it to be seriously considering gambling on Honda engines in the short-term.

Ricciardo craves a title shot and has earned it beyond any question

It would make Red Bull a works team again and Honda is an obvious differential in the engine war, but the Japanese manufacturer is a gamble after its three unsuccessful years with McLaren. The consequences of this season will not just decide Red Bull's short-term form; it could define the next phase of Ricciardo's career for him.

With little choice on the 'where', Ricciardo will probably need to focus on the 'how' - namely how much will he get from Red Bull and how long does he sign for. The latter is the trickier option as Red Bull knows his value has risen. Ricciardo could give Red Bull and whatever engine supplier it picks just the one year to convince him, while keeping the door open for a move to Ferrari or Mercedes for 2020. Or he could throw his lot in with Red Bull and commit longer-term, which might work out if that's with Honda and the project shows genuine progress.

Hamilton reckons with the right engine that Red Bull is "going to be even closer in the mix with us", "could win a lot more races" this year, and is therefore "not a bad place to be". That's about the only bit of good news for Ricciardo in this situation, because it also looks like it's the only place he can be right now.