Why Albon's F1 dream isn't all over

Being successful as a Formula 1 driver is not just about being in the right team. It's equally as important to be there at exactly the right time.

A seat at a crack squad like Red Bull is a dream for many drivers and, right now, new signing Sergio Perez is full of excitement about what could be on the cards for him in 2021. But, for the outgoing Alex Albon, there was a small element of being in the right place at the wrong time.

Albon's big chance to show what he could do to secure a long-term future at the team happened to come in a season where a tricky car and compressed calendar conspired to hinder his progress. Also, add to the mix a ridiculous set of circumstances leaving a top-rated driver like Perez as both the darling of the paddock, and without a drive.

Everything together made it impossible for Red Bull to ignore the Mexican. A more manageable car for Albon, or Racing Point not having produced its best chassis ever, or the Silverstone team committing to Perez rather than going for the star attraction of Sebastian Vettel, and things could have been very different.

F1 history is full of chaos theory events, though, where one factor somewhere triggers a chain of circumstances that has unforeseen consequences elsewhere. Yet, ultimately, as Red Bull team boss Christian Horner pointed out last week when chatting about his team's decision to go for Perez over Albon, every driver in every car has to deal with the situation that is thrown at them: whether it is fair or not.

"You take what you've got, don't you?" said Horner about Albon. "He's in Formula 1 and graduated to F1 because of Red Bull, which he's very grateful for. He's still part of the team.

"This year's car has been tricky. I think it's improved significantly throughout the year, particularly in the last third of the year. But, again, it's what you make of it, isn't it?

"I think the gap between Alex and Max has largely remained consistent from Austria to certainly Bahrain two [the Sakhir GP].

"He had a good race in Abu Dhabi and, everything else, he's done brilliantly well. He's a great racer. He's an absolute gentleman within the team. He's very popular within a team because he's such a nice guy. And that's what's made this decision harder.

"But when you look at the data, and you trust the facts opposed to emotion, Sergio is the logical choice."

Getting entrenched with the 2022 preparation at the factory and in the simulator will lead to Albon getting a head start over the racing regulars in getting to grips with how the future ground effects cars are developing

Indeed, there is an argument to suggest that Albon actually had some circumstances work in his favour this season to be given more leeway than some of his predecessors. Red Bull was pretty ruthless in the timing of its decisions when Daniil Kvyat (2016) and Pierre Gasly (2019) both found themselves relegated to Toro Rosso midway through a campaign, rather than at the end of it.

Albon earned himself extra time as the result of Red Bull's pretty comfortable position in the constructors' championship. With Mercedes having checked out in front, and Ferrari fallen away, Red Bull was going to finish second in the standings whether Albon scored a bucket load of points or not. In the end, Max Verstappen's tally of 214 alone was more than third-placed McLaren accumulated.

PLUS: How Red Bull fell short of challenging for the 2020 title

Another factor helping stave off a hurried call from Red Bull was the bizarre way that the driver market had played out in 2020. At the very time that Red Bull began weighing up its options to see if it needed to look elsewhere, it was left in a luxurious situation of being able to bide its time.

As well as the rest of the grid having been pretty much locked down, Perez's availability - and the fact that he had no options elsewhere - meant Red Bull did not need to rush to make a call. Perez was not going anywhere other than the beach for 2021; and Albon was not at risk of being snapped up by a rival. So, that meant Albon had the full season to try to convince the bosses that he was worth sticking with for 2021.

In the end, of course, that did not happen. While Albon did make some progress in getting on top of the RB16's quirks, and enjoyed perhaps his most complete weekend of the year in Abu Dhabi, it still wasn't quite enough for what Red Bull wanted. And, having seen how Perez was wringing everything he could out of that Racing Point, as demonstrated with the drive that netted him a maiden victory in the Sakhir GP, there is little doubt that Red Bull was more than justified in its final decision.

Sure, there is a risk that Perez may find himself hamstrung by the same tricky nature of the car that hurt Albon so much. But, equally, there would have been a risk in keeping Albon that the progress he has shown this year had plateaued...

For Albon, the disappointment of getting dropped was clear, as he took to social media at the weekend to say that it "hurt". It says much about him, though, that Red Bull is keeping him on in a development role rather than casting him aside completely.

Red Bull likes Albon. It is impressed with his technical feedback, and would have liked nothing more than for the Thai driver to push forwards and deliver the speed that would justify the team sticking with him. But, with an average qualifying deficit of more than half a second to Verstappen, and all too often his positioning in the races leaving the Dutch team leader without a rear gunner, Red Bull really had no choice but to look elsewhere.

However, in being tasked with the development work on the 2022 F1 car, Albon will be in the perfect position to stake his claim for a return. Getting entrenched with the 2022 preparation at the factory and in the simulator will lead to him getting a head start over the racing regulars in getting to grips with how the future ground effects cars are developing. Being central to the project will also be invaluable in playing to what he wants from a car specifically.

In addition, he will be in a prime spot to pounce should any vacancies crop up within the Red Bull stable. Perez is only under a one-year contract, so there is every chance that Albon will be on the shortlist for a Red Bull seat in 2022. Plus, Albon will be waiting in the wings to see what AlphaTauri gets up to. Rookie Yuki Tsunoda will need to impress in his first year, while Gasly could be tempted to look elsewhere if he gets some interesting offers off the back of another strong season.

Albon only needs to look at what happened to the man who is replacing him as a sign that you must never say never in F1. In 2020, Perez has come from facing career oblivion after having his contract terminated by Racing Point, to being a theoretical contender for world championship glory...

"I wouldn't be here and I wouldn't be doing what I'm doing if I didn't think it was possible [matching Verstappen]" Alex Albon

Just before the end of the season, Autosport spoke to Albon about the difficulties he had faced with the tricky RB16 this year, and how he had managed to push on in spite of the speculation around him. And, for all his mild-mannered personality, and the openness of the lack of confidence he had at times with the way the rear of the RB16 misbehaved, there was one abiding take-out from our chat.

PLUS: The challenge of emulating Verstappen in the same car

It's that Albon has a steely determination and complete faith in himself that, given the right circumstance, he can do the job. When we spoke about if he ever looked at Verstappen's data and saw things that he felt he could not do, Albon replied: "I wouldn't be here and I wouldn't be doing what I'm doing if I didn't think it was possible.

"There are definitely things where I think, 'well that's committed', or the thing's moving around a lot and he's not afraid of anything.

"But, at the same time, as I said before, there is no doubt that I can do. It is just getting it to click and getting it to work."

That then is Albon's immediate task if he is to win an F1 race seat back for 2022. And, with all that is bubbling away as F1 prepares for a new era, he is in the perfect place at the right time to do it.

The Formula 1 season review edition of Autosport magazine, featuring Grand Prix editor Alex Kalinauckas' pick of the 5 best Grand Prix drives in 2020, analysis of Sebastian Vettel's final season at Ferrari and much more, will be available to buy from 31 December.