How Red Bull fell short of challenging for the 2020 title

Red Bull bounded into the 2020 Formula 1 season full of confidence that it was going to fight for the world championship.

A stable set of regulations meant there would be no curveballs like in 2019, when new front-wing rules hindered its prospects with the RB15. There was consistency of engine manufacturer, with Honda hoping to build on the momentum that had delivered the partnership three wins over the previous season. And in Max Verstappen, the team had a maturing superstar who was ready to take on the challenge of becoming a thorn in the side of Lewis Hamilton.

To help ensure it hit the ground running with its new RB16, Red Bull also changed the philosophy of how it approached the build-up to the season. Rather than waiting until the last minute to unleash its car, thereby maximising the amount of development time possible, it chose instead to sign things off much earlier. It was hoped that this would be beneficial in ensuring the team fully understood the car, and wasn't playing catch-up in the early races while dealing with last-minute surprises. Before heading to pre-season testing, Red Bull team boss Christian Horner was in no doubt about its readiness for the campaign ahead. "We feel better prepared than we certainly have for the last five years," he declared.

But it didn't take long for the first alarm bells to ring as the RB16 hit the track in pre-season testing at Barcelona. While the car had not looked slow - indeed, Ferrari was more publicly in big trouble with a down-on-power and too-draggy SF1000 - a number of spins for Verstappen and team-mate Alexander Albon suggested that all was not right with the car. Verstappen brushed off talk that the spins were anything out of the ordinary as he suggested that it was simply a matter of trying to find the limits of the car.

"By having a few spins, I knew where the limit was," he said.

Asked if fans should be worried about the nature of what appeared to be a skittish RB16, Verstappen replied: "They don't drive the car, so they don't know. I'm not worried at all. That doesn't mean that we don't have to keep pushing and improving."

But by the time the delayed season got going in July, it was clear that there was more to the pre-season wobbles than just working out where the boundaries were. Although Albon came close to winning the season-opening Austrian GP after a late-race safety car, and Verstappen pulled off a strong run to second in Hungary, the alarm bells were ringing at Milton Keynes.

First, there was the overall performance deficit to Mercedes, with the two Black Arrows in a class of their own on pace. And there were mounting concerns at Red Bull about its car's characteristics after both drivers had suffered a spate of spins through the first races, proving that what had been seen in winter testing was representative. The balance of the RB16 was not ideal, and Albon in particular was struggling with the very unpredictable rear end. Even for Verstappen, who was better able to hustle the car as it moved around on the limit, it was not easy to find a set-up that was both fast and comfortable. "I think we've got something misbehaving aerodynamically," said Horner after the Hungarian GP. "It's obviously a matter of understanding that and addressing that."

Initially the team tried everything to get a handle on the issues. That ranged from splitting updates and development concepts across its two cars to work out which route was best, or even busting a curfew joker in Hungary to make a dramatic overnight set-up overhaul. Slowly and surely, those imbalances were ironed out. Sure, the car was never a match on comfort for the quite neutral (perhaps a tad understeery) Mercedes, but the feeling inside the cockpit was much better.

"We have just been chipping away at the car and I think that over the last third of the year we've made genuine progress. To beat Mercedes [in Abu Dhabi] in a straight fight is quite an achievement" Christian Horner

Verstappen's win at the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix at Silverstone was proof that the car was not that bad. He felt the aero issues were amplified more by those outside the team than within it. As he quite rightly said, it was hardly a crisis if Red Bull had produced the second fastest car. "I think that's made bigger in the media," he told Autosport. "We have the second fastest car. I think there are a lot worse cars to drive out there.

"We had a few spins in pre-season and stuff. But all the time, when you drive on the limit, a car's not easy to drive. Maybe ours is a bit more difficult compared to Mercedes, but probably nicer than the Williams. So I think it's a bit overdone what people said in the media, I never really felt like that. It definitely did improve through the year, especially from, let's say, the first two race weekends to the middle of the season."

But the aerodynamic anomalies were not the only problem Red Bull faced in 2020. Engine supplier Honda had felt confident about progress over the winter too, and introduced an updated powerplant for the start of the season, only to discover that, relative to Mercedes, it had actually taken a step back. Mercedes had unleashed a beast in the back of the W11, as the push to raise its game in the wake of Ferrari looking a clear step ahead in 2019 had produced an impressive hike in horsepower.

While Red Bull was able to work on overcoming its aero problems throughout 2020, the power deficit to Mercedes was ever-present. The biggest issue was running out of full battery deployment over the course of a lap. This hurt, especially in the races, as the power packs could not replenish themselves quickly enough.

"We were also lacking top speed, especially in the race," added Verstappen. "The clipping is a bit more than Mercedes. I think our car like I had, for example, in Bahrain, wasn't bad at all. But on a track where there are so many straights it's a bit painful sometimes."

Honda's mid-season announcement that it was departing F1 could have erased any hope of Red Bull ever getting on top of matters, but the silver lining from that cloud is the Japanese manufacturer has elected to bring forward what was originally meant to be its 2022 engine to next season. Initial indicators from the dyno are of a step forward in performance, which could help bridge some of the remaining gap to Mercedes.

By the end of the 2020 campaign, Red Bull certainly appeared to have closed the gap to Mercedes as Verstappen regularly threatened for the top spot, and he finally pulled it together in Abu Dhabi for the most clinical pole-and-win double of his F1 career.

But was that Abu Dhabi performance a blip, caused by a combination of Mercedes turning its engines down amid MGU-K reliability concerns and failing to get on top of the soft tyres? Or was it a genuine sign that Red Bull had finally unlocked the magic from its RB16? Horner felt it was the latter.

"Actually our pace in Bahrain [for the Sakhir GP] was very strong. It was just a shame that we lost Max at the fourth corner. He missed out on the pole by five thousandths of a second, and left Bahrain feeling somewhat frustrated. We have just been chipping away at the car and I think that over the last third of the year we've made genuine progress. We were unlucky at Imola, Turkey didn't go our way. The first Bahrain was decent. Second Bahrain, we were unlucky. And to beat Mercedes [in Abu Dhabi] in a straight fight and be the first team to beat Mercedes at that circuit, since winning ourselves in 2013, is a great achievement. It gives the team a huge amount of energy, as we head into what will be a short winter."

But the question remains: how much of Red Bull's progress over the second half of the campaign was genuine? While the lap times showed that the gap had indeed been cut to Mercedes, that could be a false indicator of where things stand. Mercedes openly admitted that it stopped development of its W11 quite early to throw resource towards the 2021 challenger, with aero tweaks still allowed next season despite a chassis freeze.

Asked whether there was a danger of Red Bull getting carried away with the strong Abu Dhabi performance, considering Mercedes had not been improving its car in recent races, Horner said: "The only thing I'd say is that there's obviously significant amounts of carry-over, whether it be gearbox, chassis or elements of the suspension. So a large part of the car is fixed and it's mainly aerodynamics that can be altered for next year. Our philosophy has been that whatever you learn this year, you carry into next year anyway.

"Mercedes are a very strong team, they have great strength in depth. We've seen that they have been bringing in some components to the car, so we expect them to be very strong next year. But I think if we can build on this [Abu Dhabi result] and this momentum, hopefully we can give them a harder time."

Whatever the reality of that gap between Red Bull and Mercedes heading into 2021, one assurance the team takes into the winter is the handling of the RB16 was much improved by the end of the season. The way that Verstappen controlled things so effortlessly in Abu Dhabi, with Albon too finally feeling a degree of confidence, showed that the difficulties that dogged the car at the start of the year had been eradicated.

"Yes, we've improved the car significantly," asserted Horner. "We've understood what those issues are, and hopefully that can be further addressed as we go into next year. We need a car that performs at a whole variance of circuits, which Mercedes have been very good at producing."

"A large part of the car is fixed and it's mainly aerodynamics that can be altered for next year. Our philosophy has been that whatever you learn this year, you carry into next year anyway" Christian Horner

There is another factor that needs to be taken into consideration ahead of 2021, and it's unclear which teams could be helped or hindered by it. The technical regulations have been changed to try to cut downforce, in the face of worries about tyre failures or the necessity to mandate higher pressures, which is not popular. Key to these changes are simplified floor structures around the rear wheels, getting rid of many of the complex slots and holes that have become a focal point of team development.

There were some initial fears that losing the ability to develop this floor area would most hurt Red Bull's high-rake concept, but there is now a growing viewpoint that it could hinder Mercedes more, because its longer wheelbase means its use of the floor to produce downforce is particularly critical.

After a year where it has faced battles to understand its initial aerodynamic anomalies, the carry-over of the current car, allied to the floor tweaks, could be the cocktail Red Bull needs for a flying start for 2021.

But it felt that way as this season got under way, so is history going to repeat itself?

The Formula 1 season review edition of Autosport magazine, featuring Grand Prix editor Alex Kalinauckas' ranking of the 10 best drivers of 2020, analysis of Sebastian Vettel's final season at Ferrari and much more, will be available to buy from 31 December.