When is the perfect time for F1 teams to focus on 2024?

As the reality sets in that Red Bull is not going to be derailed from its relentless march towards both 2023 crowns, the rest of the Formula 1 grid will invariably have to start moving resources over to next year's development, if those other nine teams haven't already done so.

That's not to say that 2023 should be abandoned entirely. There's still plenty of cause to battle on and try to achieve the best constructors' championship placing possible, as this determines the amount of prize money doled out to the teams at the end of the year. You may be able to picture Toto Wolff doing his best Oliver Twist impression and asking "please Stefano, can I have some more?" as he and his fellow team principals line up for their financial benefits. But he and his ilk are well aware that maintaining their efforts over the second half of the year is the only guarantee of more money.

There are many more factors in deciding when to turn over a new leaf, and the decision-making process is complicated further by cost-cap ramifications, aerodynamic testing allowances, and that continuing with 2023 development can theoretically cross-pollinate into next year's car. The technical regulations are set to remain static once again, so it's hardly as if maintaining a steady progression through the latter half of this year will cease to be relevant on the stroke of midnight on 1 January.

If the rules remain static, then why switch at all? Surely continuing the development of the car will allow it to keep improving, rather than build something new and risk starting 2024 having taken a step back? It's not quite that simple, and the current cars only have a finite level of progression with regards to development.

Let's say that a car has a certain characteristic that's detrimental to performance, for example, it lacks traction in low-speed corners. It could be a function of the aerodynamic balance, so you try to bring new parts to boost downforce. It helps a bit, but the problem is identified by the vehicle dynamics department as something suspension related. Set-up tweaks can only offer so much but, if a redesign of the suspension package is needed, there are significant limitations. You can change the shape of the wishbones slightly, but the mounting points are baked into the chassis so these can't really be touched. In that instance, any wholesale changes would have to wait until the next car.

Ferrari made significant sidepod revisions, but was limited in the bodywork it could reshape by internal packaging requirements

Photo by: Erik Junius

It also might affect the scope of changes a team makes aerodynamically. Ferrari, for example, switched its sidepod concept at the Spanish Grand Prix, but the amount of bodywork that it could reshape was limited by the internal packaging arrangement. For a more pronounced change, it would need to incorporate that at the conception stage of its 2024 car.

The inverse is also true that there's no point in building the car and stopping development entirely to spend a full year on the next car. Sure, it affords a team all kinds of resource in the wind tunnel as finance is not stretched around trying to find improvements, but the team learns nothing by trying new fixtures and fittings to inform the new car. With a complete change in ruleset, there's definitely scope in 'doing a Haas' and not wasting any time trying to correct a problem child with minimal budget, but in the case of a static ruleset it would be folly.

Choosing when to avert the main focus of the team onto next season, then, is an important decision to make - but it'll be a familiar step to anyone who has ever worked in project management. Here, it's all about what resources you have and where to allocate them, and determining when people can be peeled away from the 2023 project and start looking into the crystal ball for next year. Teams will likely have a group of people already looking at the 2024 car, and plotting a course through all of the characteristics and inclusions that it feels that next year's machinery needs to take the next step.

The 2024 switchover won't be an immediate process, but a gradual migration of brainpower as and when 2023 projects are completed. As such, there's not a single defined turning point

Mercedes looks as though it's already on the brink of calling it quits with the W14. This year's car was supposed to be a de-bugged version of the troubled W13, but instead prompted the team to drop its unique aerodynamic concept and fall more in line with the other 2023 cars. That switch in philosophy worked for a time, but the W14 was already constrained by having been designed with a different development structure in mind.

"I think [we'll switch to 2024] pretty soon," reckoned Toto Wolff. "We have no choice. The P2/P3, fundamentally doesn't impact me and the team. It's about coming back and being able to win a world championship in that respect.

"That's not going to happen this year. So we need to set our eyes to next year and then see all the races to come to learn, develop. And make sure that we can carry that forward into next year. But having said that, the regulations are the same. So it's not that you're not learning nothing by continuing this car, so it's a balance that we have to strike right."

From one example, where a team is behind its own expectations and is looking to turn things around, to another; a team so far ahead that it can already have one eye on next season. Red Bull could stop developing its RB19 now and still spend its Sundays scampering off into the distance. There's also its cost cap transgression penalty to consider, as it has less wind tunnel and CFD time available - so the less it uses for 2023, the more it can mitigate the effect of the penalty for next year.

Red Bull's current superiority allows it some freedom to advance to next year's car early

Photo by: Erik Junius

The 2024 switchover won't be an immediate process in these teams, but a gradual migration of brainpower as and when 2023 projects are completed. As such, there's not a single defined turning point and instead lots of little ones whenever the resource allocation timelines allow. Some teams will be further along next year's track than others, likely those going for more wholesale changes with the concept, as they seek to find an edge over their immediate rivals.

Others will be pushing their 2023 cars along the development curve until returns begin to diminish, with the aim of absorbing every ounce of knowledge and pouring it into next year's model. Now that McLaren appears to have broken free of the oh-so-tight midfield battle and catapulted itself into the battle with the teams aft of Red Bull, the plot has thickened even more - and the Woking squad might force Mercedes, Ferrari, and Aston Martin to dwell on their 2023 cars for longer than planned.

For the fanbase, as a one-dimensional 2023 does not appear set to change complexion, the potential convergence between teams as the rules remain largely untouched may yet offer a very exciting 2024. We can but hope.

Could McLaren's emergence as a front-runner at Silverstone force others into ploughing more resources into their 2023 cars than planned?

Photo by: Erik Junius