What each team must escape in testing to avoid setting off alarm bells

As ever, it won’t be until qualifying for the Formula 1 season-opening Bahrain Grand Prix that the true competitive order for 2023 fully reveals itself. Differing fuel loads, engine modes, tyre ages and good old lifting-and-coasting will be sure to obscure the lap times during the three days of testing at the Middle Eastern circuit this week.

But there will still be plenty of gauges by which to measure the early credentials of the 10 new cars. Bahrain’s blend of corner speeds and camber changes will help expose unwieldy chassis while the climate will push marginal powertrain and brake cooling that brings about unreliability. Meanwhile, the crop of full-time rookies and those returning from stints on the sidelines will raise eyebrows should they induce a red flag or two.

Here is what each team must avoid for the duration of their Sakhir shakedowns or else risk triggering the early warning system about what lies in store for the season ahead.

Red Bull – Easy-on-the-eye oversteer

Will Perez be able to rediscover his best form with the new car after his early promise in 2022 that yielded Jeddah pole vanished?

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Nothing is unimprovable, only unimproved: even the runaway champion team of 2022 still has the capacity to progress.

Max Verstappen will naturally continue to operate as the clear lead driver, with his 15 grand prix wins and the lack of repercussions for disobeying team orders in Brazil proving the two-time title winner is nigh on untouchable internally. But Red Bull must still work to elevate the results of Sergio Perez so that he can be a more dependable rear-gunner in the event of a sustained resurgence from Ferrari and Mercedes.

It is fair to assume the 2023 creation will again be at the weight limit and pointy. But if this manifests itself once more with the car excessively wiggling its hips and trying to break free at every apex during testing, there will be plenty to suggest that Perez is in for another year of discomfort

The Mexican made a notably strong start aboard the overweight RB18 last term. But then the car went on a crash diet to dip below the 798kg minimum weight limit to allow engineers to place ballast over the nose to suit Verstappen’s penchant for oversteer. That tanked the form of Perez, who turned in too many post-summer break anonymous drives to fourth, fifth and sixth.

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While Red Bull disappointingly only launched a livery in New York City and so its race-spec RB19 is yet to fully break cover, the design department would be foolish to have put back on the pounds to hurt talismanic Verstappen. It is therefore fair to assume the 2023 creation will again be at the weight limit and pointy.

But if this manifests itself once more with the car excessively wiggling its hips and trying to break free at every apex during testing, there will be plenty to suggest that Perez is in for another year of discomfort in the cockpit. If that persists, on the rare days when Verstappen isn’t in the mix, Mercedes and Ferrari may well have an easier run at the spoils.

Ferrari – Turned-down turbochargers

Ferrari turned the wick down on its engines towards the end of 2022, but needs to get its power units working at their best to keep its drivers smiling

Photo by: Ferrari

In response to the catastrophic, headline power unit failures for Charles Leclerc while he was leading in Spain and Azerbaijan, Ferrari understandably wound back the engines for the second half of 2022. Hence the dramatic performance drop-off, with the Scuderia drivers failing to top the podium after Austria, just round 11 of the 2022.

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It would be a touch too simplistic to poke fun and say that Ferrari must avoid breakdowns during its three days of testing at Sakhir - although, of course, like any team, it needs to! Amid some off-season speculation that its 2023-spec powertrain might be even more powerful but similarly fragile, the SF-23 must rack up the miles.

But perhaps the throttle traces rather than the lap counter will be more revealing. Since no team discloses their full hand, Ferrari will likely instruct its drivers to back off down the straights in a bid to obscure times. However, to fully put the new power plant through its paces to expose any weak spots, it’s surely not in the interests of Leclerc or Carlos Sainz to ease up to give the engine a moment’s respite. So, if the data in Bahrain shows plenty of big lifts, Ferrari won’t be maximising its findings.

Mercedes – Wobbling heads and wind resistance

Mercedes will hope the W14 proves more stable than its predecessor and less draggy through the air

Photo by: Mercedes AMG

The Silver Arrows were painfully afflicted by two types of bouncing at the dawn of the second ground-effects era in F1. It was one of the teams most hurt by the returning porpoising sensation many thought had been left in the early 1980s. Gradually, after the summer break, this pogoing was eliminated. But the W13 was still hopping, with the suspension needing to be as stiff as possible to make the car’s aero concept tick.

Lewis Hamilton said of the granite-like ride in 2022: “[There was a] global stiffness to the point where the suspension is pretty useless”. He reckoned there was more give in the sidewalls of the 23-inch Pirellis than what springs and dampers could offer. That extra force through the rubber meant they too were bouncing independently.

A successful starting point in Bahrain will be if the drivers can comfortably sit within touching distance of the car ahead instead of almost invariably being outdragged

Another major area of weakness was the draggy design. Too often the Mercedes' were sitting ducks in a straightline. When Hamilton and George Russell were consistently towards the bottom of the speed traps early on, many believed the Brixworth engines had lost their touch. But it was the stubbornness with which the W13 was slicing through the air that stymied its top speed credentials.

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Therefore, a successful starting point in Bahrain will be if the drivers can comfortably sit within touching distance of the car ahead instead of almost invariably being outdragged. Likewise, if the onboard cameras don’t reveal Hamilton and Russell’s heads to be jiggling excessively as a result of being thrown around the cockpit, then the W14 might prove to be an immediate step forward over its temperamental predecessor.

Alpine – Too much conservatism too soon

Alpine has made significant changes and has plenty to troubleshoot as it targets joining the frontrunners

Photo by: Alpine

The spec of the RB19 is yet to be appreciated after Red Bull’s frustrating livery-only launch. But of the nine other cars that have been partially or fully revealed, Alpine’s appears to be the biggest step forward over its 2022 contender. Evolution rather than revolution has been the order of day. But the Enstone outfit has been more ambitious. It therefore has a lot to troubleshoot.

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The Renault engine plant at Viry-Chatillon can cash in tokens to improve reliability, with the water pump proving particularly weak in 2022. The high-altitude of Mexico and critical thermal conditions in Singapore proved too much for last year’s motor as it gave up the ghost. Plenty of laps need to be logged during sustained stints this week to improve confidence concerning fragility.

The design department has taken steps of its own to improve cooling and boost power at the crank. It has been busy elsewhere changing from a pull- to push-rod rear suspension configuration to save weight and improve airflow. It also provides more room for manoeuvre when it comes to set-up changes.

Combine that with Alpine confidently stating its car is under the 798kg minimum weight limit (it reckons the scrapped 796kg threshold was achievable too) and it now has the freedom to poisition ballast around the chassis. Refining this placement and the rear suspension to suit Esteban Ocon and recruit Pierre Gasly will reasonably take time to perfect. It’s in Alpine’s best interest, then, to not hold too much back in Bahrain purely for the sake of sticking to F1 testing form and being overly discrete.

McLaren – A rusty rookie

Norris has already shaken down the MCL60 in Bahrain - his team-mate Piastri will be eager to get some mileage under his belt after kicking his heels in 2022

Photo by: McLaren

Fernando Alonso argued passionately that without the Alpine unreliability in 2022, there wouldn’t have been such a tight contest with McLaren for fourth in the points. The French outfit would have marched clear. An entirely reasonable response from Woking was to say that if Daniel Ricciardo hadn’t hit his F1 nadir to only score a third of the points of Lando Norris, McLaren would’ve have been much more in the mix.

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The Australian was duly jettisoned a year ahead of time and Oscar Piastri poached from the Alpine books to finally make his grand prix debut this season. The FIA F2 and F3 champion is very highly rated and is expected to repeat the first-year heroics of McLaren forerunners Norris and Hamilton. But after his year on the sidelines at Alpine, he will have rust to shake off.

Piastri must run well in Bahrain to find the tenths to Norris that compatriot Ricciardo so often could not during his two-year McLaren tenure

That will mostly manifest itself when it comes to wheel-to-wheel combat, as Piastri tested a 2021 Alpine and McLaren in Abu Dhabi to keep his eye in. Nevertheless, he must run well in Bahrain to find the tenths to Norris that compatriot Ricciardo so often could not during his two-year McLaren tenure.

Setting the tone in testing with minimal mistakes will better equip him and his team in that fight to lead the midfield.

Alfa Romeo – Anything other than disaster will do

Unreliability dogged testing of the Alfa Romeo C42 in 2022, so the Swiss team will hope for more reliability this time around

Photo by: Alfa Romeo

Only Haas completed fewer laps than Alfa Romeo in the first pre-season test in 2022 at Barcelona. The C42 was sent out only to shred its floor due to porpoising and suffer repeat unreliability to force a hasty return to the garage. But once its challenger was refined, the Sauber-run squad proved immensely competitive from the off with a string of top 10 results.

That it eventually clung on to sixth in the championship ahead of Aston Martin was purely down to that early form. fifth place for Valtteri Bottas in the Emilia Romagna GP decided the contest in Alfa’s favour as both squads tied on 55 points. The car concept was sound enough, but the team lost out substantially in the development race.

But now that Audi has begun its gradual takeover of the Hinwil operation, the team will finally be operating up to the budget cap, something it could not sustain last year. That should pave the way for a more regular and reliable stream of upgrade packages to keep Alfa in the mix until the bitter end.

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The performance of the C43 will not be defined by what takes place in Bahrain, meaning anything other than a torrid rollout in testing can provide a decent enough basis upon which to build.

Aston Martin – Discovering it has designed the wrong car… again

Aston brought a radical B-spec car to the Spanish Grand Prix, and could do with starting 2023 on the right foot to save time

Photo by: Aston Martin Racing

There’s a shiny new Silverstone factory, plenty of investment, one multiple world champion replacing another, and owner Lawrence Stroll’s clear grid-conquering ambitions. All told, only substantial progress will pass muster in 2023 as Aston Martin seeks to improve on seventh in the table.

Tyre preparation in qualifying and race strategy left plenty to be desired throughout the campaign. But Aston had long since started on the backfoot, soon realising it had designed and was developing the wrong car. In the early races, it was trading places at the back of the pack with Williams.

Aston can quite conceivably continue its strong curve. But it needs to lay much firmer foundations at the start of this new season by coming out of the blocks with the right car

Hence the major upgrade in Barcelona that drew heavy comparison to the RB18 and new aero head Dan Fallows taking the lion’s share of credit for the team’s gradual improvements after he finished his Red Bull gardening leave.

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Given the facilities and personnel at Aston’s disposal for the entirety of 2023, it can quite conceivably continue its strong curve. But it needs to lay much firmer foundations at the start of this new season by coming out of the blocks with the right car. While ultimate pace will always be hidden in testing, too many incidences of the AMR23 misbehaving on track will reveal a difficult-to-drive contender. Rookie Felipe Drugovich replacing the injured Lance Stroll will only exaggerate scenes of wayward car balance.

Haas – Hulk taking too long to rediscover his powers

Pressure is on Hulkenberg to be quickly on the pace and vindicate Haas giving him yet another route back onto the grid

Photo by: Haas F1 Team

Ex-Aston Martin reserve Nico Hulkenberg already has experience of this breed of ground-effect machinery after substituting for a COVID-sidelined Sebastian Vettel in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia last season. He performed admirably, even outqualifying Stroll in the season-opener although lost out at the chequered flag the following day before assuming position behind his full-time team-mate in round two. He then tested for new employer Haas at the post-season Abu Dhabi test in December.

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However, as Alonso revealed in the final race weekend of 2022, coming back from an extended sabbatical is not a task that can be underestimated. The two-time champion was much closer to his 2012 peak last season but admitted that had he endured another tame term akin to his 2021 comeback then he would have been ready to walk away. Hulkenberg, currently with a one-year deal in his pocket, doesn’t have the same luxury of time. And nor does Haas.

While Mick Schumacher’s costly crashes forced the team to shelve upgrade packages to comply with budgets, he ran Kevin Magnussen close on pace alone. Looking at each driver’s fastest lap per round compared to the race’s very best time, Schumacher held an average deficit of 2.1s. Magnussen was a slower 2.5s. The former was too erratic, the latter coming back from his own year away. But Haas flicked the German to bring in Hulkenberg to bank on scoring more points to earn more prize money.

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Schumacher was too crash prone and just two points finishes didn’t help his case as being a future F1 race winner. But he was far from a lost cause. Hulkenberg will therefore need to reacclimatise immediately, unlike Alonso, to validate team boss Guenther Steiner’s decision. That starts with the 2010 Brazil pole winner impressing in pre-season testing.

AlphaTauri – Sampling another underbaked creation

With Gasly gone, AlphaTauri will rely on Tsunoda and rookie De Vries to lead it back to the midfield

Photo by: AlphaTauri

Arguably, AlphaTauri has the most straightforward criteria to determine what comprises a successful test in Bahrain. Put plainly and simply, it needs to discover that it hasn’t created consecutive disappointing cars. The squad was still adapting to adopting the larger-scale windtunnel from sister team Red Bull ahead of the ground-effects switch. The result was an initially underproved AT03 that further lost out in the development race.

With the jury still out on Yuki Tsunoda’s ability to lead the team, and full-season rookie Nyck de Vries now completing the driver line-up, the car must be consistent and competitive for the Faenza squad to return to the midfield

AlphaTauri dropped like a stone, from sixth and a race win at Monza in 2021 to just ninth of the 10 teams. Clear team leader Pierre Gasly had his head turned by an Alpine offer after the summer break and, with his patience tested by the backwards step, was content enough to break out of the Red Bull driver holding pattern.

With his experience now gone, the jury still out on Yuki Tsunoda’s ability to lead the team, and full-season rookie Nyck de Vries now completing the driver line-up, the car must be consistent and competitive for the Faenza squad to return to the midfield mix.

Williams – Low-speed lockups

Albon will hope that puffs of smoke from a Williams will be a thing of the past

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

New team principal James Vowles’ first day on the job was 20 February. Top of his in-tray will be to appoint a new technical director to shape the development path of the FW45, which is an evolution of the backmarker 2022 machine. The carryover means straight line speed won’t be an issue for the slippery concept, even if peak downforce is lacking.

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What will be more immediately apparent in Bahrain, however, is how the drivers are faring at low speed, as a concerted effort will be made in testing to finetune car set-up to rectify the wayward and unpredictable balance of last year. Alex Albon says the key indicator of progress will be the downhill, off-camber braking zone into the tight Turn 10 left-hander in Bahrain. If the front wheels are still locking up, then another year of pain might lie in wait.

He says: “That’s the notorious corner. Hopefully, if we're backing it in on the rear axle, that's a good sign. We're trying to change the [mid-corner] behaviour of the car. That might take a bit of time to understand and optimise.” So, come the third and final day of testing, there needs to be a distinct lack of puffs of smoke from the fronts in this heavy braking zone.

Williams has yet to appoint a new technical director to oversee development of the FW45

Photo by: Williams