The unpredictability to expect for F1's one-off return to Sepang in 2026

Malaysia's Sepang circuit is making a one-off return to the Formula 1 calendar as a proxy host for the Bahrain Grand Prix, bringing challenges both familiar and new.

The hot and humid conditions, along with the daily late-afternoon rain downpour, act as a Proustian madeleine for those with previous experience of this venue. For others – including most of the drivers on the grid – these are conditions they have only read about.

Sepang occupies a significant place in F1 history since it signalled grand prix racing's aggressive expansion eastward under the Bernie Ecclestone regime. This was the first of many grand-scale facilities with statement architecture, paid for by governments who wanted to put their countries on the map.

It also set the template for the kind of track designed by the architect who came as part of the package: Hermann Tilke. His belief was that wide tracks with long straights followed by sharp corners would facilitate overtaking organically by provoking drivers to make mistakes. Tilke's detractors describe his genre as bland and failing to deliver on the promise of overtaking.

The downside of state backing is that political winds change. In Malaysia, ticket prices set beyond the reach of most locals – just one would cost the average person's monthly wage – meant largely empty grandstands year-in, year-out.

Not the advert the country wanted. In 2017, after 18 years as a fixture on the calendar, Malaysia terminated its hosting deal a season early.

There are certainly more fans this year than used to be the case at this venue

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For Sepang's cameo appearance in 2026, the F1 cars are entirely different so there are many unknowns. Only the ambient heat and humidity, and the abrasiveness of the track surface, are well understood.

At least one driver has likened the track surface to sandpaper. Built to withstand the harsh weather and provide quick drainage, the aggregate has a very open texture.

Tyres produce grip through a process known as hysteresis. Rubber is a viscoelastic material: unlike a fully elastic substance, it doesn't immediately spring back fully to its original shape once compression forces are removed. As a tyre rotates, the outer layer is compressed against the track surface and some of the kinetic energy is lost as heat as the material tries to return to its original state. 

The rougher the surface, the higher the temperatures. For this reason it's expected that tyre degradation will be more of a factor here than other tracks this season. That will come as some relief after an Azerbaijan Grand Prix which was a nailed-on one-stop race, even with the soft tyre.

Interestingly, while Pirelli has leaned towards the harder end of its compound family, it hasn't brought the hardest tyre of all. Instead the choices from hard to soft are the C2, C3 and C4 – just one step harder than in Baku.

Sepang's layout, with long straights and sharp corners, is likely to be relatively deterministic in the way the teams will approach energy harvesting and deployment – potentially along similar lines to China, where there was plenty of the so-called ‘yo-yo racing' fans and drivers dislike. But there are some suggestions this may not actually be the case.

"We come to an incredible circuit now," said Fernando Alonso, who claimed his maiden F1 pole position at Sepang in 2003. 

"It's going to be sad, the middle sector, because we cannot use the battery there – if not, you don't have [sufficient charge] for the three consecutive straights, you know, from Turn 14 to the last corner, then last corner to Turn 1, Turn 2 to Turn 4, you have to use the full 100% battery on those three straights, so the rest is just charging the battery."

A much younger Fernando Alonso claimed his maiden pole position here at Sepang in 2003 and finished on the podium with first-time winner Kimi Raikkonen

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So the cars are likely to be quite slow through the middle sector as a result – but anyone who uses electrical boost to snatch an overtake will pay for it at the end of the lap.

When deploying the electrical motor, the current cars put quite savage amounts of energy through the rear tyres, so the likelihood of damaging them by causing the surface temperatures to spike is as worrying for the engineers as the longer-term effects of thermal degradation. This will also affect how the teams approach deployment here.

"I think the big difference on this circuit compared with other so-called yo-yo circuits is the tyre overheating," said George Russell. 

"So circuits such as Melbourne, Silverstone, Monza, there wasn't actually that much tyre overheating from the surface. Canada as well. So that kind of allowed the drivers to stay a little bit closer within that one second [which grants access to additional power through overtaking mode]. 

"Even in Baku it was quite cool, the drivers could stay close. Whereas here, surface overheating is going to be a huge thing. You'll be overheating the tyres even on the outlap of a qualifying session, which may make it more challenging to follow closer and to re-attack once you've been overtaken. But that's a total unknown currently."

After several races with little or no degradation, channelling teams into broadly similar strategies, this venue could generate some strategic variety. If so, it would have something in common with the track which usually hosts the Bahrain Grand Prix, another one with a rough surface hostile to tyre life.

This may also be the first proper outing for F1's wet-weather tyres. Here there are more unknowns, given the long-standing fears that the new intermediate tyre is a little too hard, and prone to not warming up quickly enough.

"It will be a good test for sure if it rains," said Carlos Sainz. "A good test for the regulations also because I think with all the issues we have with downshifts, with harvesting, power, variability, corner to corner, the wet is going to be a challenge for sure. 

"Both from a tyre standpoint – from what I heard from people that have run them, this year's wet tyre and inter-tyre are difficult – plus the power unit factor [ie large delivery of torque in slippery conditions], it will be for sure a good test."

In 2009 the race start was moved to a later time of 15:00 local, as it will be this year, and a downpour caused the race to be stopped early. When conditions didn't improve, the restart was aborted

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In Malaysia you can reliably bet on a torrential downpour at around 4 o'clock in the afternoon. Sometimes it arrives early; sometimes it clears up quickly, in which case the heat will dry the track quite quickly.

But there are circumstances where it can be raining but, owing to the heat drying the track surface, not wet enough even for intermediate tyres. This was the case in the 2009 running of the Malaysian Grand Prix.

Most people remember that because it was one of the relatively few races in F1 history to have been red-flagged and not restarted before the full race distance was completed. The race start was put back to 15:00 local that year for the co nvenience of European TV viewers, so a drenching was virtually inevitable – and it should have figured in the thoughts of those who scheduled the race at the same time this year.

But what many people forget is that for at least 10 laps before the rain turned biblical, those who had made an early swap to wet tyres suffered as their tyres overheated. Still, given the general lack of running on Pirelli's wet-weather rubber this year, this area remains an unknown.

"The only thing I remember from Japan [where he tested the wet tyres] is that the tyres have zero grip," said Isack Hadjar. "It would make the racing very dangerous with a lot of water. So, I would definitely welcome any competitive session to be a rain session and qualifying. But at the moment, for the race, with all this energy, I think it would create a bit of chaos. 

"I don't think we're much ready for that. But definitely qualifying – why not?"