The "rabbit hole" that F1 needed to stay out of

After what was perhaps the most unpredictable of twists at the end of a most epic 2021 season, Formula 1 was always going to have a tough time coming up with a decent encore. The chances of the championship being able to repeat a world title fight, decided in questionable circumstances with an overtake on the final lap of the final race that swung the world title, were always incredibly slim.

But as F1 embraces a new rules era, the hope is for an improved and competitive grid – where the cars can race each other better, the field spread is much closer and there is a bigger variety of teams and drivers winning.

PLUS: Unpacking the technical changes behind F1 2022's rules shakeup

Expectations for all that being delivered from the off are probably unrealistic though. Beyond the already emerging scepticism about how much overtaking will be easier, one of the fundamental truths of F1 is that rules overhauls rarely serve to immediately close up the field.

In fact, the opposite is often true. New regulations offer numerous different interpretations by teams – and not all of those prove to be the best. Initially then, there is often a bigger field spread, usually with one team clear out in front having got everything spot on, and the others then forced to play catch up.

It is often only through rule stability – be it over a fair number of years – that the field is able to truly compress. And it is surely is no coincidence that in 2021, the year of perhaps greatest stability ever as teams were forced to keep running the same chassis as the previous season, we were treated to such a compact battle up and down the order.

If things were to be as close when the cars are unleashed at the season opener, then it would be a miracle. Indeed, the highest chance is for the opposite to be true: that one team will likely be well out in front, and there will be a pretty defined pecking order behind.

2021 saw some of the closest competition in F1 for years due to the stable regulations

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

If it does play out exactly like that, of course there will be those suggesting that F1 has made a mistake in trying to shake things up too much. They will argue that we would even have been better off keeping the cars the same.

PLUS: Is F1 set for rule revolution regret again?

It’s something that F1 managing director of motorsport Ross Brawn does not agree with at all. He is crystal clear that the change in rules in not about making the 2022 Bahrain Grand Prix more exciting than the 2021 Abu Dhabi GP. Instead, this is about long term fundamentals and building the foundations for the next decade or more.

“Inevitably when we start the season, we may see some scatter in the performance of the teams,” he said earlier this week. “I think that’s unavoidable. But also I think it’s unavoidable to go that [new] route. Staying where we were was just going to get worse and worse.

"There’s no doubt the cars would just have continued getting worse and worse and worse. And there were some quite complex aspects of the cars we were racing which was causing differentiation between the teams as well" Ross Brawn

“We’ve had a little hiatus in a way with COVID, because the teams have been constrained in what they have been able to do. They’ve had to use the same chassis and various other parts.

“But there’s no doubt the cars would just have continued getting worse and worse and worse. And there were some quite complex aspects of the cars we were racing which was causing differentiation between the teams as well.”

Beyond the fact Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen were going at each other at the front of F1 for a season, it is fair to say there were plenty of alarm bells ringing.

It was undeniable for example, that F1 was stuck in being a two-class system: with the A-class Red Bull and Mercedes well clear of the other B-class teams. Sure the gap was closing up slowly, and Ferrari was certainly back on the road to recovery after its 2020 blip, but there was little reason to think that season-by-season the best teams with the biggest budgets were ever going to get knocked off their perches.

F1 boss Ross Brawn is just weeks away from finding out the true impact of the new rules he helped devise

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

And however good the Hamilton vs Verstappen fight was last year, such a close contest was the exception rather than the rule in F1’s turbo hybrid era. As the FIA’s Nikolas Tombazis explains: "We shouldn't forget that in the how ever many years of this regulation that we had since 2014, and then maybe 2017, in terms of a close fight for the championship, we've really had one other.

"We've had one between [Nico] Rosberg and Lewis in 2016. If you just look at the one year, it was very exciting. But we're trying to create regulations that create this in a more lasting way, and between a higher number of drivers, not just two teams."

There were some critical aspects of F1, like the old 13-inch tyres, that even played perfectly to sealing the advantage of those with more cash to burn. It’s why F1 needed a rethink and restrictive rules to produce a more level playing field.

As Brawn explains: "Getting a 13-inch wheel with all the movement of the tyre to be representative in the windtunnel, was a fascinating but massive exercise. As soon as you go to an 18-inch wheel, the movement of the sidewall of the tyre is much reduced, and then it’s much less complex for a team to model and represent.

"There’s all sorts of things: every decision we’ve made has been towards not dumbing down the sport, but making it more achievable for more of the teams, and to get a closer competition going on for the future, while still leaving it a meritocracy so the best teams still win.

"There’ll be a bit of disparity in the beginning, we all know that with new rules. But I’m not expecting a huge disparity unless somebody makes a huge cock-up! I’m confident these rules and this regime and this culture will lead to much better racing."

There is clearly a fine line to be trod though in terms of shaking things up to deliver excitement, but without making it a complete lottery. One of F1’s fundamentals is that is the best driver in the best car should come out on top in the end. So it cannot be that the new rules suddenly result in superstars like Hamilton and Verstappen tooling around at the back of the grid, while a relative unknown walks away with the title.

George Russell gave the Mercedes 2022 F1 car its track debut at Silverstone during its launch

Photo by: Mercedes AMG

Brawn thinks that the balance that has been set by the new rules is correct.

"I think any win, any victory, has to be on meritocracy," he says. "I mean, I honestly don't think the regulations will change the general order of things dramatically. I think it will bring it a lot closer. And I think we'll see some of what were the midfield teams challenging. So I think we'll have a bigger group of competitive teams.

"As we know, we either expected a Mercedes or a Red Bull to win the race unless something different happened. But we're blessed with a number of great drivers in Formula 1 today. Lando Norris, the Ferrari drivers, we've got George Russell in the Mercedes. I think there's any number of combinations of drivers that will give us a fantastic season. And if there's three or four of them mixing it up, that's even better.

"If we'd stayed with the same rules I think we would have just gone further down that rabbit hole of the nature of these cars, so we had to break away from that" Ross Brawn

"So I'm optimistic about the coming season. I think the good teams will always do a good job. They've got the expertise and the experience.

"Although I'd love to see it, I don't think we're going to see Mick Schumacher dominating this year! In a way we don't want that sort of disparity or that shock, unless it's an unusual race, because that suggests it's all become a bit random, and it can never be random. It needs to be a meritocracy."

The underlying message is clear, though: the new rules need to be given time. And once bedded down, Brawn thinks F1 will then look back at horror at what F1 was doing before – and the dangerous place it could have ended up if it had continued to allow the old model.

“If we'd stayed with the same rules I think we would have just gone further down that rabbit hole of the nature of these cars, so we had to break away from that,” he said. 

Brawn hopes the 2022 F1 rules don't create a lottery of winners and meritocracy is still possible

Photo by: Charles Coates / Motorsport Images

“It will take a little while to settle in. But I think we're going to be in a far better place going forward with the type of car we're going to have than we had. And there lots of optimism for the season.

“I think we'll see some interesting results this year from some of these young hot shoes who are coming through. They get the right car behind them, and we can all have a lot of fun."

Be patient. That fun is on its way.

Fans have been given their first glimpse of the 2022 F1 cars during the launch season, but who will come out on top?

Photo by: Aston Martin Racing