Is F1 set for rule revolution regret again?

Bahrain’s three days of testing has left all in Formula 1 with a whole bunch of questions and uncertainty about what teams were really up to and what lies ahead.

For it is fair to say F1’s final pecking order for 2021 is perhaps harder to predict than it has been for some time.

While it still looks like Mercedes and Red Bull will be left in an exclusive fight for the actual title, the whole grid has about it a sense of things having bunched up a bit.

It’s perfect proof of the mantra in Formula 1 that there is no better way of closing up the field than keeping rules stable.

It triggers the law of diminishing returns for the teams at the front as it gets harder and harder to seek more gains, plus a flow of information and better understanding for those behind on what is needed to go quicker. It’s the perfect cocktail for the gap between the top and bottom teams to get wiped away.

So it is not really a huge surprise that ahead of a 2021 season that has perhaps the greatest stability in history – with teams carrying over their chassis – we look set for a fantastic season.

PLUS: 10 things we learned from F1 testing 2021

For now, the fight for supremacy between Red Bull and Mercedes is too close to call, while no-one can state with any confidence how the midfield pecking order will end up between McLaren, Aston Martin, Alpine, AlphaTauri and Ferrari. It could be that third to seventh in the final standings all comes down to the final race of the campaign.

All the 2021 cars on the grid

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

The 2021 season has all the hallmarks then of being a campaign where small factors make a big difference and no team is able to head in to a weekend with any guarantee about coming out of the other end with a nailed-on result. It means a lot of stress for the teams, but great entertainment for any of us watching.

But amid the excitement of what lies ahead over the next few months lies the potential for the grid to find that the close battles of 2021 are replaced by a huge gulf between the front and the back in 2022.

As F1’s long history has shown, major rule changes often manifest themselves in one team getting things absolutely spot on and roaring away with things – and it taking some time for the opposition to catch up.

The potential is clearly there for F1’s rule revolution in 2022 to repeat history: for the chances are it will be one of the biggest teams that steals a march on the opposition and unleashes something dominant

Just look at what has happened in the turbo hybrid era. The change of engine concept laid the foundations for Mercedes’ domination, and each rule tweak we’ve had since 2014 – such as the switch to increased downforce from 2017 to increase speeds – has helped nudge the Silver Arrows clear of rivals who had started breathing down its neck.

If you go back to the previous major overhaul, the 2009 season, when aero was cut back drastically, on paper it turned out to be one of the closest overall in history. The slowest team Force India was just 1.241% behind pacesetter Red Bull.

However, that was a year skewed by the double diffuser situation.

Brawn GP got the rule loophole right and ran away with things early in the year – enough to hold on when Red Bull finally got things back on track and roared away over the second half of the season.

Were it not for the double diffuser, Red Bull could well have added another title to the tally it notched up between 2010 and 2013.

Jenson Button, Brawn Grand Prix BGP 001 leads Sebastian Vettel, Red Bull Racing RB5

Photo by: Sutton Images

The potential is clearly there for F1’s rule revolution in 2022 to repeat history. Chances are it will be one of the biggest teams that steals a march on the opposition and unleashes something dominant.

It means we could be sitting here in 12 months time after F1’s 2022 pre-season testing already fully knowing who is going to win the title...

But while such a scenario off the back of a close 2021 campaign would prompt many to say F1 did the wrong thing in being so bold with the planned changes, the reality is that F1 has long been clear that what’s coming for next year isn’t about trying to halt Mercedes and Red Bull.

Back at the start of 2020, this writer spoke to F1 managing director of motorsport Ross Brawn about the scenario of a boring campaign with the new rules – and he was adamant that the series would be in much worse shape if things had been left alone.

While a closed-up grid is a positive consequence of rule stability, the fact that F1 for years has had at best a trio of teams fighting it out for regular wins (and a massive spending gulf between the front and the back of the grid) was not sustainable for the long haul.

“There is a risk,” said Brawn about the new era leading to early one-team dominance.

“There's a chance that in 2021 [when the rules were originally coming in], somebody will get a jump on the opposition. But I think it's a necessary reset. Otherwise, I don't know we are going to correct the situation we're in."

Ross Brawn, Managing Director of Motorsports, FOM

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

Indeed, F1 2022 has to be viewed in conjunction with the budget cap and aero balancing rules that are aimed at levelling the playing field up off track. It’s about a philosophy of all teams being able to go in to a race weekend knowing that if the stars align they have a sniff of the win.

Recent comments that F1’s push for sprint races to spice up Saturdays is a waste of time because the 2022 rules should make the racing better anyway, fail to take into account what’s really behind the move.

While there is no guarantee that F1 2022 is going to deliver a competitive order as close and unpredictable as we have for this season, it’s very much a case of it being the short term pain that it needs to go through

F1’s sprint qualifying experiment this year is not about trying to slip up the top teams and mix up the grid. Instead, it’s about making a race weekend more attractive for fans – with relevant action on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

If you drive increased attendance and viewership on Friday, plus added interest on Sunday, more eyeballs can only be a good thing for F1.

So while there is no guarantee that F1 2022 is going to deliver a competitive order as close and unpredictable as we have for this season, it’s very much a case of it being the short-term pain that it needs to go through.

Only by getting the fundamentals right – which go much deeper than having the current close pack triggered by rule stability – can F1 come out the other end in a much healthier place.

Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes W12, Mick Schumacher, Haas VF-21 and Pierre Gasly, AlphaTauri AT02

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images