The factors set to influence the chances of an F1 Suzuka repeat in 2024

If you were on the internet at all following the 2024 Australian Grand Prix, you will know all about the statistics and quirks that result churned up.

How Carlos Sainz and Ferrari are the only non-Red Bull winners in 26 races, that in all three of the Spaniard’s Formula 1 career wins, George Russell has crashed out in a Mercedes. Now, thanks to F1's calendar twist for 2024, the championship is also heading back to the same track that followed Sainz's 2023 Singapore triumph: Suzuka.

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Having been humbled on the street circuit’s bumps and kerbs, Max Verstappen was out to set the record straight. He never publicly admitted it – that’s just not part of his defensive stance to avoid giving absolutely anything away to rivals – but the Dutchman was targeting a statement victory reply.

“He was properly fired up and he said: 'I want to win the race by 20 seconds'," explained Red Bull team boss Christian Horner.

The Japanese track’s mix of corner types – including truly high-speed, high-energy sections that the teams are set to encounter for the first time this year – and abrasive surface mean it combines to be exactly where a Red Bull of the current era is built to dominate in a tyre degradation race.

In 2023, the RB19 was so good on its tyres, Verstappen could unleash a medium-medium-hard strategy and his winning margin was just 0.6s shy of his target. Therefore, predicting anything other than another Red Bull rise back to the front after its shock Melbourne defeat would be utter folly.

But, as ever, F1 is much more interesting than just the fate of the frontrunner.

Piastri impressed for McLaren in 2023 at Suzuka

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

At Suzuka last year, McLaren led the way in terms of chasing Red Bull, with Oscar Piastri edging team-mate Lando Norris in qualifying on a track he had never driven before. He lost out in the race – with the 2024 Japanese event set to be an important test of Piastri’s in-race tyre management progress compared to Norris – but that qualifying lap seriously impressed McLaren.

It will be hoping Suzuka’s high-speed sections and comparatively few low-speed spots can bring it to the front of the chasing pack for the first time this year, having gone well in Australia. At Mercedes, its ongoing high-speed bouncing problem may well be exposed again here.

But the storyline of contrasting fortunes for the Ferrari drivers continues to be worth following closely – with Leclerc now winless in nearly 18 months and Sainz still unemployed for 2025. At Suzuka last year, the latter arrived from his brilliant purple patch of Zandvoort, Monza and the Singapore win, with the former somewhat lagging behind.

The move to an April slot for the first time in the Japanese GP’s history is important. The timing change means temperatures are likely to be much cooler compared to sweltering conditions of 2023

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Yet it was Leclerc who led Ferrari on that autumn Suzuka weekend – thanks to his better qualifying, which he followed up with an attacking drive, including a sumptuous pass on Russell. The need to protect the rear tyres at this venue favours Leclerc’s ability to live with a more lively rear end compared to Sainz. Avoiding rear sliding is critical to any driver succeeding on what remains one of F1’s classic, fearsome tracks – one the competitors love.

But, just six months on from the championship’s last visit here, there are critical differences that may scupper expectations of an exact 2023 repeat.

The move to an April slot for the first time in the Japanese GP’s history is important - expect plenty of references to cherry blossom across the weekend. But the timing change means temperatures are likely to be much cooler compared to the sweltering conditions of 2023.

Mercedes could be in for a solid Suzuka weekend in cooler conditions

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

Early forecasts have the ambient falling by around 10°C compared to a peak of 29°C on race day last year, yet Pirelli is suggesting an average somewhere between 8°C and 13°C is possible, which is notably cooler still. This could boost Mercedes, which reckons its W15 struggles more when the mercury rises, but it’s also something that might worry Red Bull.

It has occasionally struggled with nailing tyre requirements and is just one race on from front tyre graining hurting its potential in Australia (albeit with the caveats of Verstappen’s race DNF and Sergio Perez being compromised there by damage).

The temperature drop means unlike the typical Suzuka two-stopper, a one-service approach might be possible. That could in fact help Red Bull given how well the RB20 treats its rubber, but if its huge downforce potential is unleashed at the expense of the tyres, then another squad trying the one-stopper might end up being hunted down late on.

Yet the opposition is going to have to be perfect to get into such a position. The lower temperatures therefore become relevant again because they will make it harder for the drivers to keep the tyre temperatures in the correct window across the two axles.

Losing this could mean starting out of position and a compromised race if the balance window is lost, given how close the grid is behind Red Bull. This is what hurt Leclerc in Melbourne, but Ferrari overall is in a very different place to 2023 with the less recalcitrant SF-24. It too, is arriving at a big test of its progress on the tyre management front.

On the Sainz vs Leclerc battle, last year it was a floor update that helped the Monegasque racer turn the tables on his team-mate’s great run of form.

The Sainz vs Leclerc battle will continue in Japan this weekend

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

This time, although there have been rumours that Ferrari is rushing to bring its major upgrade it had initially earmarked for Imola to this event instead in a bid to close in on Red Bull, which may have its own ‘zeropod’ updates to come here too in any case, a big car balance shift isn’t guaranteed in the red machines.

Sainz has the momentum right now, something that could also be vital when considering just how the 2024 Suzuka race emulates last year in another important factor. This one extends back to 2022 too. In both post-pandemic Suzuka races, Verstappen started from pole but faced stiff opposition at the rapid opening turns. In the wet two years ago, he monstered Leclerc’s better run on the inside, while last year he had to see off both McLarens, inside and out.

If such a scenario happens again, the familiar stats and quirks F1 fans love naturally suggest there’s a higher risk of an incident for Verstappen at a beautiful, brutal track where crashes can happen.

Suzuka may not provide Verstappen with the crushing bounce back it did last year

Photo by: Mark Horsburgh / Motorsport Images