The 10 unseen factors critical to Verstappen's Brazil F1 rise

“Definitely this one is the best one.” Max Verstappen was unequivocal in ranking his 2024 Brazilian Grand Prix victory, which puts him on a total of eight for the year and now on the brink of a fourth straight Formula 1 world title.

All of that was, however, secondary to one statistic from last Sunday at a soaking Interlagos. How the Dutchman climbed from starting 17th and feeling like he was “almost trying to destroy the garage” in reaction to his Q2 exit, to reflecting it was ultimately “unbelievable to win here from so far back”.

Except it wasn’t, really, because for all of their mid-2024 run being flummoxed against McLaren, Ferrari and occasionally Mercedes, this was still Verstappen and his crack Red Bull squad.

There was an air of inevitability even before his erstwhile polesitting title rival Lando Norris had erred in reacting to the “Aborted Start” message at the brought-forward race’s intended 12.30pm local start time.

This would hang over the McLaren driver the whole race, with Verstappen among the seven that correctly waited for green lights before moving off to commence another start procedure – called only because the cars ahead had already left the grid again.

This was all after Lance Stroll had so poorly (brake failure or not) got his repaired Aston Martin stuck in the Turn 4 gravel on the race’s first formation lap.

While Verstappen made a stunning start, Norris's race began to go wrong from his aborted start mistake

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

But Verstappen’s experience of start rules from his 40 poles wasn’t the difference in one of F1’s great wet-weather performances. Norris and his fellow front-row starter and aborted start gaffe-maker George Russell were also eventually only fined €5000 each for their mistake, which 11 others followed.

No, there were 10 far more important factors in Verstappen’s “Donington 1993” performance – per Red Bull team boss Christian Horner – none of which were immediately apparent.

1. Verstappen’s start so good he “didn’t even see” Perez

After the extra 10-minute wait for the start, it was Russell that made the best getaway of the leaders. He and Norris reacted very similarly, but the McLaren driver getting wheelspin in the second phase while feeling “the left side looked a bit better than the right” in terms of grip made the difference.

"It's very hard to pass around here with the new [asphalt]. I had confidence on the brakes as well" Max Verstappen

Russell was through and immediately pulled a 1.3-second lead by the end of lap one of a contest the stewards would declare over a quarter of the way through would be to 69 tours and not 71 thanks to Stroll’s off and the extra formation laps.

By this stage, Verstappen had gained six places from his lowly starting spot – made worse by Red Bull fitting a sixth internal combustion engine of the year after his air intake leak last weekend in Mexico had left him running a power unit from pooled parts slightly down on power there. Two came automatically with Stroll and Alex Albon’s Q3-crashed Williams absent. But the rest were brilliantly well earned.

For a start, Verstappen carved by Oliver Bearman in Kevin Magnussen’s Haas on the row ahead off the line, then went around the outside of Red Bull team-mate Sergio Perez on the outside line at Turn 1. This was a move Verstappen claimed he “didn’t even see” in the cooldown room nearly three hours later.

Verstappen, just about visible in the background, about to go by Perez and others like they weren't even there

Photo by: Lubomir Asenov / Motorsport Images

Come Turn 3 and Franco Colapinto had recovered the other Williams to be back just ahead of Verstappen, but here – 2016-Brazil-like – he powered around on the outside and got Valtteri Bottas’s Sauber too.

Over the next 26 tours in effectively the first act in this race of two distinct near-halves, Russell held off Norris lap after lap. Verstappen, meanwhile, passed former title rival Lewis Hamilton for once without controversy at the Senna S on lap two, then did likewise to Pierre Gasly on the fifth tour, plus Fernando Alonso’s remaining Aston the next time by at Turn 4.

It then took Verstappen two laps to erase a 2s gap to Oscar Piastri in the second McLaren, and at Turn 1 the Australian didn’t offer any battle at all. Verstappen was easily by at what was clearly already his favourite passing spot, even with its new surface “oily layer” and so “very limited” grip levels in the wet – per Pirelli motorsport boss Mario Isola.

“It's very hard to pass around here with the new [asphalt],” Verstappen said afterwards. “I had confidence on the brakes as well.”

But, once he’d been basically waved by Liam Lawson into Turn 8 on lap 11, Verstappen’s charge was blunted. He erased the near three-second next gap to Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc ahead, but overall spent 11 laps trapped behind the red machine.

The 2022 title contenders did have one thrilling scrap through all this – the only resistance Verstappen faced at Turn 1 all race.

At the end of lap 21, Verstappen had the perfect run on Leclerc up the long, meandering pitstraight. But when they braked into the start of the Senna S on the fast-arriving next tour, Leclerc was stubbornly on the inside line.

He held this, gave Verstappen room on the outside and as the sequence unwound stayed sixth.

Leclerc giving Verstappen just enough racing room fighting into Turn 1

Photo by: Lubomir Asenov / Motorsport Images

Verstappen hypocritically and incorrectly called foul, but didn’t have long to fret. Because just two laps after their refreshingly clean battle, Ferrari called Leclerc in to take another set of the intermediates the pack had all started on.

2. Red Bull’s new inters and upgrade progress

Leclerc, along with Russell and Norris a short while later, would get used inters in his service. They’d all had come into the race with no new sets available, while Verstappen – on the flipside of his Q2 exit rage – had started on a new set of the green-walled rubber and had two more for race use too.

Unlike the softs, inters after a heat cycle weren’t heavily damaged, but there can be no doubt the freshness of new ones was a handy boon in the treacherous conditions all throughout the elongated race day.

With Leclerc now bottled up, Verstappen was unleashed to chase Esteban Ocon and Yuki Tsunoda – the other stars of wet qualifying for Alpine and RB respectively – and their battle for third

“The team have worked very hard to try and understand these tyres,” Horner said of Pirelli’s range overall, with his next bit important too. “The upgrades that we've bought [lately], we really started to get the most out of them here.”

3. Leclerc’s pitstop while fifth

As Leclerc was making for Interlagos’s undulating pitlane, the clouds above the track had already darkened considerably. The intermittent rain of the race’s opening phase and the steady drizzle of early Sunday morning qualifying was about to be replaced with something far more serious.

Leclerc had asked Ferrari to “find free air”, which it did ahead of Bearman and Hamilton’s scrap over 11th. But Ferrari team boss Fred Vasseur said his team “underestimated the loss in the pit exit” on colder inters and when Leclerc understandably exited gingerly, he “lost a couple of tenths”, again according to Vasseur, and so rejoined behind Hamilton.

Leclerc's pitstop call was undone by a low pit exit and the red flag to follow

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

With Leclerc now bottled up, Verstappen was unleashed to chase Esteban Ocon and Yuki Tsunoda – the other stars of wet qualifying for Alpine and RB respectively – and their battle for third. At this mini-phase, Verstappen was a maximum of 15.3s adrift of first place, having dropped back from 10.5s behind Russell when he’d first caught Leclerc.

On lap 27, Ocon mugged Tsunoda delightfully at Turn 10 – where Perez had spun the other Red Bull solo back on the opening tour – to grab a podium berth he wouldn’t lose thereafter. But barely 30s after the Frenchman’s pass, the race ahead was forever altered, in a way that would catapult Ocon into a shock lead.

4. Mercedes overruling Russell proves key

Far back from the leaders on lap 27, Nico Hulkenberg made another wincing memory in Interlagos’s Turn 1 run-off by braking on the white line – “I took a little break from paying attention”, he’d later say – and spinning off. The Haas came to rest initially stuck on a drain.

This meant the virtual safety car was activated when the leaders were heading out of Turn 3 on lap 28. They obviously couldn’t pit, but behind Piastri led Alonso and five others into the pits to take more inters (or in Perez’s case, full wets).

The state of the inters removed from Perez’s car meant Red Bull could see “the tyres were in very good shape so that's why we elected not to pit [Verstappen] for a new set of inters and go longer”, said Horner. “Because we [also] knew more heavy rain was coming. So, it was a question of, ‘Right guys, you're in survival mode’.”

McLaren had already told Norris this was the case with the clouds looming, but the orange squad changed its mind when, according to team principal Andrea Stella, “with the VSC and with the increased amount of water on track it was important to go on to the new tyre”.

From the lead, Mercedes ordered Russell in forcefully – with team engineering director Andrew Shovlin coming in on his radio and “overruling my engineer to say ‘box’,” per Russell. The Mercedes – quickest down the straight to Turn 4 and therefore a potentially massive stumbling block to Verstappen’s rise – never saw the front again.

With Russell and Norris pitting, Ocon became the surprise leader just before Colapinto's red-flag crash

Photo by: Lubomir Asenov / Motorsport Images

5. Red flag rules stop Norris's clear gains

Although Ocon, Verstappen and Gasly had cycled to the podium spots by not stopping, with Tsunoda going to full wets when he came in well behind Russell and Norris, the early leaders’ real frustrations were still yet to come.

For on lap 30, with the rain absolutely pelting down, Norris sailed by the suddenly timid Russell into Turn 4. And coming back up the hill he’d got within a few car lengths of Gasly and Verstappen ahead, having been around six seconds behind the Red Bull exiting the pits. Ocon, at this point, had pulled an impressive eight seconds to the good in the lead. But here the race was neutralised by the safety car’s activation – called “when visibility was deemed too poor”, per Isola and amid the lack of an official explanation from the FIA.

This then became a red flag stoppage when Colapinto crashed (not quite 2003-Mark Webber/Alonso-style here given the lower speeds involved) into the Turn 14 outside wall heading up towards the grid. He’d stopped when the safety car was first called.

The race was neutralised by the safety car’s activation – called “when visibility was deemed too poor”, per Isola and amid the lack of an official explanation from the FIA

A near 25-minute delay followed, during which Verstappen and Gasly were able to fit new inters without losing places, while Ocon did likewise with used ones.

6. Verstappen beds in his brakes wisely post-restart

The lap 33 restart was a rolling one – and after just a single lap of safety car accompaniment. This surprised Horner, who felt “it just seemed over-ambitious to get the race going again” as “the back of the tail hadn't caught up”.

Indeed, Bearman and constant backmarker Zhou Guanyu fell off in separate incidents at Turn 12 running well adrift of the pack, while Ocon ahead was getting ready to light up the restart.

Ocon tore away at the restart in his bid to lose Verstappen

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

He did this magnificently and blasted to a 1.5s lead at the end of lap 34 – evoking memories of his 2021 Hungarian GP win in other wild circumstances. Ocon even extended his lead to 3.4s over the next three tours.

Back on the first restart lap, Norris locked up and went deep at Turn 4 – handing Russell what was now fourth back as they raced back up the hill to Turn 6.

On lap 39, Verstappen had just cut Ocon’s lead to 3.2s when the race was interrupted again. This time, Carlos Sainz had spun after braking for Turn 8 from the perilous white line and had whacked the barriers. Sainz was eventually out when it was clear how much damage he’d sustained, but he actually put his steering wheel back on under orders from Ferrari and briefly pulled away when the marshals had already started fitting a recovery lifting tether to the Ferrari’s roll hoop. Sainz was reprimanded for his infraction.

“He just couldn't see a thing [and] he wanted to bring the brakes in nicely,” Horner later said of Verstappen’s time behind Ocon before Sainz’s crash. “He was very conscious of just bringing all the temperatures up. The weather was only gonna get better and so, again, was just using his head.”

Alpine team boss Oliver Oakes also insisted “the advantage was being in front with no spray”, which he said couldn’t be denied on a day he felt his team had to stay “humble”.

7. Ocon's unwillingness to risk Alpine’s result

Ocon again had to use his nous for the second restart three laps later. Here he was also magnificent – dropping Verstappen as they climbed back towards the grid hatchings. But it wasn’t enough.

From so far back, 0.3s as they crossed the start/finish line, Verstappen dived to Turn 1’s inside. It looked wild, but it wasn’t – he got it stopped commandingly well on that oily, bumpy surface.

Verstappen dives for the race lead at the final restart, before leaving Ocon in his wake

Photo by: Lubomir Asenov / Motorsport Images

“I was in the tow,” Verstappen said. “And I knew that I passed a few people there before. So, I was like, ‘I'm going to send it up the inside’.

Ocon, like so many before him, didn’t make a fight of it because “Max clearly was quicker on that second stint, so there was no way for me to be fighting” and he’d recalled how in qualifying “90% of my laps I had the front locking into Turn 1”.

“He made it stick,” added Ocon, who had Alpine’s potential $30million constructors’ prize money gain in going from ninth pre-weekend to sixth leaving Brazil at play too. “And it was a nice move.”

8. McLaren's brake issues hamper Norris

Behind Verstappen’s surely title-clinching pass, Norris was in trouble again. Leclerc was attacking at the restart in a move that also got him by Russell’s Mercedes.

"We have struggled with the lock-ups all weekend in wet conditions with both drivers. And I think from a car point of view this is also something that we need to look into" Andrea Stella

Norris, with Leclerc on his inside, locked up again and slid off into the Turn 1 run-off. He later admitted “I made a couple of mistakes, which I own up to”. But Stella said there was another unseen factor at play in Norris eventually finishing sixth – aided by Piastri waving him through three laps after the Turn 1 off.

“We have struggled with the lock-ups all weekend in wet conditions with both drivers,” said Stella. “And I think from a car point of view this is also something that we need to look into. We didn’t give the drivers easy material to handle in these difficult conditions.”

After McLaren’s 1-2 in the sprint race, Norris had also come off its nifty new medium-downforce rear wing, which had made the MCL38 quickest in dry conditions. This change was to provide better stability via a bigger rear downforce arrangement in the wet. Indeed, Norris felt “the wing was helping”.

Norris saw the race slipping away from him with locking brakes and a run-off into Turn 1

Photo by: Lubomir Asenov / Motorsport Images

But his GP comment about “we just weren’t quick enough” had much to do with how the extra downforce hampered his chances of passing the slippery early leading Mercedes when “we were faster than Russell but no way to overtake”, per Stella.

9. Ferrari's new-found struggles in cold conditions

Another ‘what if’ from this contest is how Austin and Mexico winner Ferrari tumbled from being only a fraction behind Red Bull on dry race pace in the sprint to nowhere in the wet. Leclerc blamed his own set-up going in the “wrong” direction, which Vasseur insisted was a team effort. But Leclerc had another theory too – around Ferrari’s impressive gains on tyre management this year. This doesn’t bode well for the Scuderia in the coming cool night conditions of Las Vegas next time out.

“We've done a big step in tyre management,” Leclerc reflected. “Which means that we also left something behind in cold conditions and tyre temperature – just like today.”

After his restart heroics, Leclerc fell off at Turn 4 three laps later and let Russell back by through the ensuing Turn 5.

But he kept ahead of Norris to the finish, while the Mercedes in front “damaged his tyres a bit” when running very close to Gasly late on – according to the Alpine driver – and so the phase one leader could never have “the idea of trying anything” to rescue a consolation podium.

10. Verstappen's pace to the flag

Once finally in free air, Verstappen checked out. In the final 26 tours, feeling “the car was having a nice balance” for once in Red Bull’s post-Miami downturn, he eased away from Ocon at a rate of 0.7s a lap to win by a whopping 19.5s.

And while his fastest lap efforts kept flashing up on timing screens, the total number of times he lowered the benchmark was not. All told, Verstappen set it 17 in the race, with 14 coming once he’d grabbed the lead.

That extra point means Verstappen leaves Brazil leading Norris by 62, with 86 left to race for in 2024’s final triple-header. It’s all over bar the inevitable online shouting.

Verstappen looks strong favourite to seal a fourth world title in 2024

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool