Renault is now on the bottom rung of F1's real ladder

It's a cliche to talk about Formula 1's ultra-competitive midfield battle these days. But that doesn't mean it's not valid to do so, and with three quarters of pre-season testing in the history books it seems F1's 2019 'Class B' will be every bit as tight as last year - or perhaps even more so.

But one team in that group is an anomaly.

Renault is a full-blown manufacturer operation, one that has built impressive resources over the past three years and plans to cross the no-man's land separating the rest from the big three in the coming seasons. To do that, it first must be at the front of the midfield pack - and ideally more comfortably than it was last year. In short, it must not only finish fourth this season, but a better fourth.

Before Renault can take root in the wasteland as it attempts to bridge across to the big three, it needs to defeat the rest of Class B. Testing has so far been encouraging but inconclusive, despite Nico Hulkenberg setting the fastest time of the first test (which still stands as the second fastest of pre-season) on Thursday last week.

Daniel Ricciardo was asked to give his estimation of where Renault stands and admitted there was no "hard evidence" that it was at the front of the midfield group, let alone clear of it. With the traditional big three - Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull - once again ahead, the gaggle behind appears to comprise Renault, Toro Rosso, Racing Point, Haas, Alfa Romeo and McLaren. As for Williams, it's currently looking to be off the back of that pack.

So, where does Renault really stand? Is it set to rise above the midfield morass, or is it in a dogfight to hold onto fourth place? Right now, the evidence suggests it's in the mix at the front of that pack, but not yet decisively clear.

A look at the fastest times set so far paints an illusory picture. For the record, here are the quickest lap we've seen over the six days of running from the midfielders.

Fastest 2019 testing times by F1's midfield

1 McLaren, 1m17.144s (C4)
2 Renault, 1m17.393s (C5)
3 Toro Rosso, 1m17.637s (C5)
4 Alfa Romeo, 1m17.762s (C5)
5 Racing Point, 1m17.824s (C4)
6 Haas, 1m18.330s (C5)

But this is not the order of the midfield. McLaren, for example, is not the quickest and judging by long runs Haas has the pace to be right at the front of the pack. Given the fuel and tyre variables, the 1.2s gap from front to back is in no way representative. So, what can we say about Renault's performance?

Last season, Renault was on average 1.166% off the pace of Red Bull. Based on pace analysis from pre-season testing, it looks like the gap could be around the half a second mark, which would mean the deficit is not far off being halved, as last year's figure would equate to about nine tenths.

Of course, that all depends where the 2019 Red Bull is on pace, with the comparison further complicated by the team switching from comparable Renault engines to very different Honda propulsion. But given Red Bull has started to show some very promising speed, that does suggest Renault has got closer. There are also signs the whole midfield is not only more closely packed, but also edging towards the front group as well, perhaps partly because the reduced complexity of the front wings has helped the smaller teams. Things could get very congested.

While Renault's car looks good dynamically, it's perhaps not as impressive as the Red Bull or the Ferrari

Ricciardo is in a unique position to judge Renault's position given he's just spent five seasons racing for Red Bull. Among all the usual lip service paid to the team about having everything it needs to match Red Bull - admittedly, not ridiculous given the vast investment it has made both in personnel and equipment - it's difficult to be sure of the reality. But having jumped out of a Red Bull and into a Renault, he doesn't point to any obvious weaknesses - although he's non-committal about its performance over the kerbs, which was a particular Red Bull strength.

"The basic characteristics are the same," says Ricciardo. "I don't feel that the car has, let's say, massive understeer everywhere. You are always a bit limited generally by entry stability and then you get understeer and then you want more traction. So, the basics are the same.

"It is trying to bring that closer and have less of everything [negative]. That is where Red Bull was so strong, especially in the faster and medium-speed corners, where they had their strengths over the past few years.

"The car is not doing anything out of the picture at the moment, which is positive, we are just trying to clean it all up.

"I know in the past I have not been that happy with the ride here, but I had never driven the car prior to this. It is not really that representative here in Barcelona, it is such a smooth circuit, I don't know what it is going to be like with kerbs and all that at the moment. There are no harsh surprises or anything like that that I am really taken aback by. I know we have got work to do but it is nothing that I think is unachievable."

On track, the Renault looks like a decent and usable car, and it has improved as testing has gone on. The early problem with the top flap of the rear wing breaking thanks to the DRS has not been repeated (it was described as an easy fix).

But while the car looks good dynamically, it's perhaps not as impressive as the Red Bull or the Ferrari. There have been a few moments when on edge that it's been seen to get a little snappy, and while decent enough over the kerbs at the chicane, it's not taking them effortlessly. And there have been hints that Ricciardo can't be quite as decisive on turn-in as he was in his Red Bull days. Again, this points more to midfield than top three.

The other key question is the Renault engine package. With its ERS proving its worth last year in Red Bull's dominance at altitude at Mexico City, Renault has set its sights on improving the V6 engine itself this year. On top of that, it's hoped the increased focus on more aggressive qualifying engine modes will pay off.

"Maybe we pay too much attention to what we develop to go racing and we did not put that much emphasis on Saturday," said engine technical director Remi Taffin at the end of last season.

"By not taking advantage of that state of mind a few years ago, it takes a while before you get back on top of it, which is one of my biggest regrets so far - not having taken the edge on quali. That's something we will bring forward, making sure we can be competitive on a Saturday afternoon."

We have no idea whether Renault has made effective strides with its Saturday settings just yet, but it needs to given that Honda has made gains in this area and the advantage Ferrari and Mercedes already had. Hulkenberg is confident things have improved, despite the increase in rear wing size meaning cars are now in the neighbourhood of 5km/h slower on the straights (with the DRS not open, as with it open the increased gap means the top speeds are about the same).

If Renault is on a journey to the front, it's at least taken half-a-step in the right direction so far this year, perhaps more

"We have made a good progress there," he says. "The comparison to last year is not very fair. These cars with the big rear wings, we know they are more draggy, which obviously affects the power and accelerating feeling. But I do feel still with more drag on a car, that there is more power, so I feel that we have made good progress on that area. Is that enough? We'll only find one once we really go to quali and races."

The upshot is that Renault looks to be in good shape, but still needs to do better. Estimates vary for its true pace deficit to the front, but we can be confident that, barring a leap forward, it's not with the top three yet. And it shouldn't be, because realistically it takes time to get to the front.

What's more, this is an all-new car. Before testing, the team's technical supremo Marcin Budkowski said that only the power steering system was carried over from last year's machine. Given the significant effort that has been put into making components more compact, improving the packaging, and the fact this could increase the performance potential, Renault was always going to have work to do. In effect, it finished last year at the top of a smaller team ladder, but is now on a low rung of a top team ladder that it must climb rapidly.

Renault's most serious competition at the front of the midfield appears to come from Haas and Alfa Romeo, with Racing Point and Toro Rosso not far behind and hopeful of making gains as the season progresses. McLaren is also there, but, despite some flashy low-fuel runs, it doesn't appear to be a big threat to those at the front of the midfield. But upgrades are still coming, and it's in the hunt.

That could mean that six teams and 12 drivers are competing for what will usually be just four spots in the Q3 top 10 shootout. The situation was similar last season, and it's exactly where Renault doesn't need to be.

Overall, this isn't a bad position for Renault. It should have the power to out-develop its midfield rivals on the chassis side, and if the Viry-based engine department has achieved its goals there will also be gains to be made there. Finishing a better fourth in 2019 looks eminently on the cards based on what we've seen so far.

But it's not the only upwardly-mobile team in the midfield. The threat posed by teams such as Racing Point, which also has good reason to expect strong progress through the year and is one of the most, perhaps even the most, formidable race team in F1, must not be overlooked.

If Renault is on a journey to the front, it's at least taken half-a-step in the right direction so far this year, perhaps more. Certainly, everything looks to be going in that direction. But if it's going to be fighting for wins and titles by 2021, it needs to leave the midfield behind as soon as possible.