How Hamilton’s Brazil crash could spoil epic finale

It's funny how things work out in Formula 1 sometimes. After clinching his fourth world championship two races ago in Mexico, Lewis Hamilton promised to stay flat-out to the finish and win the final two grands prix of the year, to avoid the complacency that accompanied his 2015 title success and helped Nico Rosberg steal the crown away the following season.

That mission fell apart in spectacular style when Hamilton stuffed his Mercedes into the wall on his first flying lap of qualifying for the Brazilian Grand Prix, but that uncharacteristic mistake may become the foundation upon which Hamilton utterly crushes his opposition at the season finale in Abu Dhabi.

By taking the opportunity presented by Hamilton's crash to start him from the pitlane at Interlagos, Mercedes fitted Hamilton's car with a totally fresh engine and turbo package for the final two races of the year.

With his main rivals all potentially hamstrung by engines, Hamilton's position at the top of the Friday practice pile looks ominous

Hamilton utilised the power on offer from that fresh power unit to devastating effect in Brazil, climbing all the way back to fourth and finishing with 4.5 seconds of race winner Sebastian Vettel - a performance that had Red Bull team boss Christian Horner reaching for the Valium.

While it's true Hamilton had help from an early safety car period to close his deficit to the pack, and took further benefit from running a favourable alternative tyre strategy, that doesn't change the fact he lost next to no time compared to Vettel between the safety car restart at the end of lap five and the conclusion of the race 66 laps later, despite spending much of the race in traffic.

The Brazilian Grand Prix was Vettel's fifth since he last had an engine change (in similar circumstances to Hamilton) ahead of the Malaysian Grand Prix; Kimi Raikkonen's Ferrari has done four races since it last received a new motor; Valtteri Bottas has completed a whopping eight races since Mercedes introduced a fourth engine of 2017 to his pool ahead of August's Belgian Grand Prix.

Red Bull drivers Max Verstappen and Daniel Ricciardo are the only two among the top teams that can come close to Hamilton's current minimal engine mileage, but Renault's parts shortage means they are simply trying to survive to the end of the season rather than throwing everything they have at the opposition.

With his main rivals all potentially hamstrung by wheezing and ageing motors, Hamilton's position at the top of the Friday practice pile in Abu Dhabi looks ominous.

Pure pace ranking

1. Mercedes (Hamilton) 1m37.877s
2. Ferrari (Vettel) 1m38.026s
3. Red Bull (Ricciardo) 1m38.180s
4. Force India (Perez) 1m39.323s
5. Renault (Hulkenberg) 1m39.529s
6. McLaren (Alonso) 1m39.559s
7. Williams (Massa) 1m39.635s
8. Toro Rosso (Gasly) 1m40.694s*
9. Haas (Magnussen) 1m41.128s
10. Sauber (Wehrlein) 1m41.270s

*Time set on super-soft tyres

Hamilton was only 0.149s quicker than Vettel during their qualifying simulation runs in FP2, but Hamilton gave up 0.131s to Vettel through the second sector of the lap, which is basically two long straights linked by two chicanes and a hairpin.

Hamilton felt he gave away time in Turn 9, which suggests he could easily have gone faster still. He was miles ahead of the best Ferrari and Red Bull could manage over one lap on the super-soft tyre, and would have been further ahead had he not been forced to abort his final flying lap thanks to Stoffel Vandoorne going off and taking an age to restart his McLaren.

The order behind Hamilton was intriguingly jumbled - a Ferrari second, a Red Bull third, another Ferrari fourth, the other Mercedes fifth, the other Red Bull sixth, all covered by half a second. That hinted at a potentially epic fight between F1's big three teams, but not if Hamilton - already showing glimpses of his unrivalled Brazil speed - can utilise his engine advantage to waltz off into the distance.

Long-run ranking (ultra-soft)

1. Mercedes (Bottas) 1m42.754s (5 laps)
2. Ferrari (Raikkonen) 1m42.831s (7 laps)
3. Red Bull (Ricciardo) 1m43.003s (6 laps)
4. Renault (Hulkenberg) 1m43.947s (6 laps)
5. Force India (Ocon) 1m44.029s (6 laps)
6. Williams (Massa) 1m44.153s (7 laps)
7. McLaren (Vandoorne) 1m44.190s (8 laps)
8. Haas (Magnussen) 1m44.946s (7 laps)
9. Toro Rosso (Gasly) 1m45.068s (5 laps)
10. Sauber (Wehrlein) 1m45.285s (8 laps)

Long-run ranking (super-soft)

1. Mercedes (Hamilton) 1m42.290s (7 laps)
2. Red Bull (Ricciardo) 1m42.666s (4 laps)
3. Ferrari (Vettel) 1m43.216s (6 laps)
4. Force India (Perez) 1m43.326s (4 laps)
5. Williams (Massa) 1m43.499s (2 laps)
6. Renault (Hulkenberg) 1m43.804s (9 laps)
7. McLaren (Alonso) 1m44.724s (8 laps)
8. Toro Rosso (Gasly) 1m45.433s (8 laps)
9. Sauber (Ericsson) 1m45.469s (10 laps)

*Haas completed no long-run laps on this tyre

Low-fuel, high-fuel, on both main tyre compounds, Mercedes was on top. Hamilton played down the advantage, suggesting it would be "close between us and Ferrari. It's closer than you would think".

But Mercedes often uses older, higher-mileage engines during Friday practice, to preserve its best stuff for the business end of the weekend. Bottas - who felt he gave away time in sector three and to running a different set-up to Hamilton - was using his 'number two' engine' at Yas Marina. Mercedes confirmed Hamilton was actually using his Brazil race engine on Friday in Abu Dhabi, but "not necessarily running it harder than any other Friday", which suggests he has a chunk of extra performance still to come for qualifying.

Of course, Ferrari plays similar games, and should find some extra performance of its own when it cranks up Vettel's and Raikkonen's race engines for final practice and qualifying, but it's difficult to see Ferrari closing the gap given how much extra room Hamilton potentially has to play with on such a power-sensitive track.

Beating the world champion is probably going to rely on a mistake. That is possible. The type of tight, slow-speed corner sequences that proliferate on this circuit, coupled with its smooth asphalt, have proved difficult for Mercedes this season. As Hamilton says, "this is particularly one of these circuits where having the car work optimally in those different windows between high, medium and low-speed corners is really tricky".

Keeping the rear tyres alive for a full qualifying lap is difficult; Verstappen lapped only 0.148s off the pace in FP1 but fell away as conditions cooled in the evening

Hamilton's individual long run on the ultra-soft tyre was around four tenths per lap slower on average than his team-mate's, so he is potentially vulnerable on the tyre compound that will be used for the business end of qualifying and probably the first stint of the race. Not anywhere near as vulnerable as he was early in the season in Russia and Monaco, but clearly not totally comfortable.

If there is any residual weakness there, Vettel will need to exploit it fully in qualifying, given how historically difficult it is to overtake on this circuit. Vettel did his super-soft long run on a much higher fuel load than his rivals, so Ferrari is probably closer to the pace on that tyre than it looks too. Raikkonen dipped into the 1m42s with one flying lap on that compound at the end of the session.

"They are very quick," said Vettel of Mercedes. "I was very happy with the [qualifying simulation] lap. Maybe the last sector there was a bit more. Overall it was OK. This morning, we started off on the right foot. If I can behave in the last sector, there should be some more time there.

"If we can do the usual step to Saturday, improve the car a little bit - I don't think we need to do much - it should be a good day and then we'll see what we achieve in qualifying. It's a tricky place, a long lap, so you need to get everything right."

It is definitely not easy to keep the rear tyres alive for the duration of a qualifying lap here, as shown by the struggles of Mexican GP winner Max Verstappen, who lapped only 0.148s off the pace in the first session, but fell away as conditions cooled in the evening, regularly complaining that his rear tyres weren't offering the grip he needed.

Engineers say it is easy to overreact to the results of FP1 in the daytime heat, given teams are so used to the track temperature increasing for FP2 ordinarily, rather than cooling off as night approaches. Verstappen admitted to making set-up changes between sessions that clearly didn't work.

"Second practice I just didn't feel happy," said Verstappen, who was a second off the pace in FP2 and half a second per lap off Red Bull team-mate Ricciardo on both tyre compounds used for the longer runs. "I couldn't get the car to turn quickly enough and on this track it is quite killing as it is a sequence of corners. We have to get that back in the car tomorrow."

Ricciardo is an old master at the type of tyre discipline needed here, which he showcased often in the more delicate Pirelli era in places like Singapore. He was on form again on Friday in Abu Dhabi, despite Romain Grosjean's best efforts to spoil his party.

Ricciardo was faster than Verstappen in every sector of the lap in FP2, but particularly quick through the final one, where those tyres are really feeling the heat. The challenge for Ricciardo will be avoiding the sort of strange Saturday performance drop-off he has suffered recently in Mexico and Brazil.

Red Bull would probably be even more competitive here if this race took place at Mexico City altitude. The corner sequences in Abu Dhabi suit the RB13 in a similar way, but Red Bull will struggle to keep pace with Mercedes and Ferrari's in the power stakes given the continued need to detune the Renault engine to preserve its reliability.

Team boss Christian Horner spoke ahead of practice about F1's three-engine per driver limit for 2018 being "barking mad", and it seems there is potential for the type of tactical engine change made by Hamilton in Brazil to provide even greater benefit next season, as everyone has to work that much harder to eke out engine life across the balance of 21 races.

Hamilton has already made his feelings on this subject known, suggesting the stricter limits for 2018 "suck", but this will be of little concern to him now, knowing he is the one who stands to benefit most from having bags more engine potential in his locker to unleash on the opposition in the final race of '17.

"I have this real burning desire to finish off in a strong way," Hamilton said. "Ultimately, when you finish off strong it makes it easier to start strong the following season, so that's my goal. We've worked so hard as a team that we deserve to finish with a strong race."

With all that extra poke in the back of his Mercedes, all thanks to stuffing his car into the wall in Q1 at Interlagos, Hamilton has a very good chance of signing off this season in style.