F1's performance pecking order revealed

Performance and performance improvements are always hard to quantify in Formula 1. What we've seen so far is that the cars are 1-2 seconds per lap faster than they were in 2015, but that can be a result of many things.

Car improvements play a big part, but some of it is also down to the tyre regulations, which in effect allow the teams to nominate one-compound softer tyres than Pirelli would have done last year.

Power unit development has improved the performance throughout the grid, unless you are Toro Rosso using a 2015 Ferrari package. The team has moved from Renault, so initially there's a slight step forward, but overall there's a performance deficit to the opposition before Toro Rosso even started.

What's important is to look closely at the relative performance of each team and whether or not each one has closed the gap to the pacesetter or the team that was directly ahead last year.

This can be analysed by taking the fastest single lap from each team from each of the last four grand prix weekends of 2015 expressed as a percentage. This can be compared to the average figure for each team from the first four races of this year.

As Mercedes is still on top, with a performance figure of 100.000% (ie, it has set the fastest individual lap in each of the first four race weekends of 2016 and the final four of last year) there's no clear way to measure its improvement, but for the remaining 11 teams we can look at their gains/losses relative to the pace.

Just as with laptime, you want a minus figure to show you are closing, rather than a plus figure for a loss.

MERCEDES
Late 2015: 100.000%
Early 2016: 100.000%
Change: N/A

Mercedes dominated in 2014 and 2015, and this year it's a case of more of the same with Nico Rosberg winning all four races to date.

But as everything gets pushed closer to the limits, reliability problems have cropped up. This is a little surprising, because during pre-season testing Mercedes kept pumping in the miles with no apparent problems.

Lewis Hamilton's suffered most of the problems, but that's either luck of the draw or because his driving style demands a slightly different set-up of the highly complex energy recovery systems. No other driver has suffered this way, so that's not out of the question.

But those who are peddling conspiracy theories need to realise no team intentionally favours one driver. Equal effort is put into both cars as it's the only way to win the constructors' championship. Beyond that, it's up to each driver to beat the other.

In last year's Russian Grand Prix, it was Rosberg that suffered a failure. In general, over the past couple of seasons, he's actually had worse reliability.

MAKING GAINS

MANOR
Late 2015: 106.548%
Early 2016: 104.733%
Change: -1.815%

Manor's performance has certainly improved and the Mercedes power unit is a major part of that.

There was a lot of room for improvement at the end of last year, and I'd say that right now the team has reached the bottom of the mountain. That's good, but there's still a mountain to climb!

Manor is the smallest team in F1 so if it can hang on to this performance deficit or even close it slightly, it will be a job well done.

McLAREN
Late 2015: 102.643%
Early 2016: 102.558%
Change: -0.085%

When you are winning, it's fine to be a corporate oil-tanker. If you are ducking and diving with the have-nots, it becomes embarrassing.

McLaren has made a small step from the end of 2015, but there's still a lot of room for improvement. This performance analysis is based on the fastest single lap of a weekend, so we're talking about when the Honda power unit is at full blast.

If this deficit is still all from the Honda power unit and all at peak horsepower, I would make the estimate based on the fact that the driver can be on full throttle for roughly 55 per cent of a lap. So requesting maximum power for that amount of the lap means the deficit is in excess of 60bhp.

It won't just be at peak power, it will be a deficit right through the power curve.
I can't help thinking there's more to come from the chassis. Jenson Button's comments on the radio suggest the car's balance is always on a knife-edge. When it is like that it's very difficult to get the best from the chassis or driver.

SLIPPING BACK

FERRARI
Late 2015: 100.667%
Early 2016: 100.750%
Change: +0.083%

The numbers tell the tale. Yes, Ferrari has had some bad luck, but the deficit to Mercedes has slightly increased.

As with anything it's not just one weakness. The car just doesn't have the overall aerodynamic grip of the Mercedes and the power unit doesn't have the ultimate performance when everything is turned up to the maximum for those quick laps in qualifying.

Ferrari needs to close this gap, and quickly, or there is potential for an implosion at Maranello. The powers that be are not hiding their frustration and are right to say Ferrari should be winning races.

It has one of biggest budgets in the business, if not the biggest, and in Sebastian Vettel one of the best drivers on the grid. Ferrari has no hiding place and regular visits to the top step of the podium is the least that should be expected.

TORO ROSSO
Late 2015: 101.944%
Early 2016: 102.040%
Change: +0.096%

Performance-wise Toro Rosso has just about held on to Mercedes. The change to a 2015-spec Ferrari power unit has no doubt helped - at least for the first part of the season. But Toro Rosso could easily lose ground as the year progresses.

Still, credit where credit is due. Toro Rosso is a small team with solid financial backing and I would compare the team's attitude to that of Williams - it's in F1 to go racing.

Toro Rosso has now lost Max Verstappen to Red Bull and got Daniil Kvyat in return, and that will change the dynamic within the team. It should release Carlos Sainz Jr to express himself more freely and compare himself to Kvyat.

WILLIAMS
Late 2015: 101.253%
Early 2016: 101.434%
Change: +0.181%

Williams had a terrible time in the wet at the 2015 US Grand Prix, with a percentage performance of 107.515. That skewed its average, so for the purposes of this analysis we are looking only at a three-race sample set.

Even doing that, Williams has still lost out a little to Mercedes. It's still in more or less the same position overall, but the team will be disappointed not to have closed the gap.

Consistency is the area Williams needs to focus on. Its performance seems to be more circuit and grip dependent than any other team; pinpoint why that is and overall it will improve.

RED BULL
Late 2015: 101.281%
Early 2016: 101.506%
Change: +0.225%

Like Ferrari, Red Bull has dropped away from Mercedes. It has also lost a little bit of performance relative to Ferrari, even with what's been described as a small improvement of the Renault power unit.

I disagree with those who argue the Red Bull is the best chassis in F1. Yes, it's up there but it has always run a car that has had huge levels of downforce and was fairly draggy, so straightline speed suffers. Red Bull is in the midst of a new learning curve of how to get the best laptime, and straightline speed has become more of an influence.

At least this year Red Bull has settled down a bit and is not continually bad-mouthing Renault. That, together with Renault's collaboration with Mario Illien, should meant that by mid-season we might just see the true Red Bull performance.

But when I say settled down, what I should say is Red Bull has turned its attentions to putting pressure on the drivers. There seems to be a belief that playing Russian roulette with Max Verstappen is the best way to motivate everyone.

Kvyat's problems come directly from that pressure. What the team management needed to do was put their arms around his shoulder and they might just have helped him through this difficult time.

But after his mistakes in Russia, the decision has been made to replace him with Verstappen. Only time will tell if Red Bull has thrown the baby out with the bath water, or if the new baby is the real deal.

FORCE INDIA
Late 2015: 101.537%
Early 2016: 102.036%
Change: +0.499%

The magnitude of Force India's performance drop-off is a little worrying. It leaves the team in that congested mid-grid area where one weekend you can comfortably be in the top 10 and another you can be down the order and vulnerable to incidents.

It's difficult to know where Force India is budget-wise. Team principal Vijay Mallya has been going through some interesting times and this could be affecting planning and potentially the team's stability. But only he knows what's really going on.

Sergio Perez outshone Nico Hulkenberg at the end of last year and he seems to have continued that trend at the start of this year. Hulkenberg is a genuinely good driver and needs to get over his frustrations and deliver.

SAUBER
Late 2015: 102.763%
Early 2016: 103.738%
Change: +0.975%

I expected more from Sauber this year, especially with Mark Smith on the staff. With his experience, the team should have started 2016 on a sound midfield footing, but his pre-season departure set alarm bells ringing.

Budget restrictions in recent times mean the team has been living from day to day. You can't do this in as competitive a world as Formula 1, as moving forward is all about research and manufacturing planning as anything else.

Unless you have a stable budget, you just can't do that. It doesn't have to be the biggest, but it needs to be stable.

For Sauber to improve, it needs a partner with big pockets.

RENAULT
Late 2015: 102.240% (as Lotus)
Early 2016: 103.840%
Change: +1.600%

Last year the team had a reasonable season considering how underfunded it was, but with the Renault takeover taking so long, it has lost ground.

Renault will need time to regroup and employ a few new top-end engineers. This could take time, so don't expect a dramatic improvement in performance this year.

HAAS
Late 2015: N/A
Early 2016: 103.463%
Change: N/A

Haas has probably surprised itself as much as anyone else. The big question is whether it can maintain its fine start to the season.

The early points-scores can muddy the performance figures, but Haas has slotted in ahead of Sauber, Renault and Manor. That's no mean feat, and many other recent new teams would have been delighted to achieve that.

Haas just needs to get on with the job. It should have a reasonable budget to plan upgrades. If this happens and performances improve, it will have justified its place in F1.