How McLaren can shake up F1 midfield

McLaren is expected to bring a major update to its MP4-31 for this weekend's Spanish Grand Prix. The rate of development has been impressive in 2016: the team has brought updates to the car at every race so far this year.

The Spanish update is another milestone in McLaren's fight back to competitiveness, and it appears the team could have turned the corner with regards to its chassis performance.

Before the Honda partnership began, McLaren's chassis was not at the level of Red Bull and Mercedes. The team had to rebuild its design operation after Paddy Lowe's departure for Mercedes.

When the initially uncompetitive Honda engine was mated with the car last year, the lack of pace was predictable. However, McLaren has worked hard to get back on terms with the rest of the grid, hiring Matt Morris and Peter Prodromou to join Tim Goss as a technical triumvirate to run the design office.

The Mercedes-powered MP4-29 of 2014 differed from many rivals with its unusual radiator packaging and the aero detailing of its rear suspension, but more recent cars have been far more conventional.

This year's MP4-31 is unremarkable as a design, in as much as it takes on the commonly used concepts of its rivals. The car sports a short nose, S-duct, complex front wing, conventional side/radiator positioning and a normal rear suspension layout.

Allied to the design is the car's steeply raked set-up, with some 13-14cm of clear air below the rear end, giving it a nose-down attitude that greatly benefits aerodynamics. Understanding how to get these aero and set-up concepts working meant a lot of pain throughout the 2015 season for McLaren. Since this learning had to be conducted during race weekends, it was very much in the public eye.

But even with this return to convention, the MP4-31 package isn't competitive. The reasons for this remain centred around two areas: the aerodynamics and the Honda power unit.

Taking the latter first, the confined packaging of the Honda remains an issue. The turbo compressor and MGU-H were updated over the winter, but the compressor is still mounted inside the "V" of the engine and is undersized compared with its rivals.

This costs engine horsepower and restricts energy recovery, and since the unit is running at the limit of its RPM for so much of the time, the strain it is under risks unreliability.

Honda, like Renault, has not yet adopted the pre-chamber "jet" ignition of Ferrari and Mercedes, which has an effect on power and fuel consumption. In the races the drivers have to actively manage fuel to make the car run the distance on the 100kg allocation. A consequence of this is that McLaren is forced to start its drivers with the full 100kg of fuel, unlike rivals who can start several kilos lighter and therefore run at a faster pace early in a grand prix.

Honda's step in engine development is due for Canada next month, although this will not be a re-laid out set up with the turbo outside the "V", but merely an updated version of the current layout with improved combustion technology. So it won't be a complete cure, but a large step towards removing the fuel consumption handicap.

On the chassis side, there's evidence to suggest the car can put in fast lap times when not handicapped by the engine. This has been helped by the frequent chassis updates, as Prodromou brings the level of the aero detail ever closer to that of Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari.

At its launch and through early testing the MP4-31 was very much a development of the MP4-30. At the end of testing a new aerodynamic package brought the car to its Melbourne specification. Again the focus was on the front wing, because getting this right with the step rake set-up is fundamental in getting the car to 'work'.

As well as the carbon bodywork, these developments also influenced the suspension set-up and the clever hydraulic mechanisms working the remote spring, as an unlinked replacement for FRIC.

In-season development has revolved around the Bahrain front wing update, then largely small add-on parts to the Melbourne set-up: extra flicks on the wing, a vane under the nose and other small pieces. So as the current design of the car stands, where does McLaren go to find more pace in the chassis?

The car already has all the right features, with no oddball parts or areas obviously lacking. With this in mind and with the present generation of car design at a mature stage, it's unlikely the next package - described as "significant" by the team - is going to be a radical visual change.

Instead it's more likely the update will be a collection of updated parts such as wings, floor and turning vanes. Individually each one is unlikely to be a huge step from before, but all optimised to work together. So don't expect a 'B-spec', but a step forwards nonetheless.

However, other teams also have large updates planned for the return to the traditional European leg of the season, so McLaren's step will need to outperform developments from midfield teams such as Force India, Renault and Haas in order to have an effect.

Given McLaren's resources, getting this right will have two potential consequences: first the obvious effect of more pace, then secondly the psychological effect on its midfield rivals. For many teams money is tight this year, the cost of in-season development is huge, and that needs to be tempered with preparations for the big rule changes next year.

So if McLaren takes a step clear of its rivals, it's all the more likely that those teams will consider switching focus to 2017 and cut back 2016 development. This in turn could result in a further gain for McLaren over the course of this year.

However, the reverse situation could also occur, where the update fails to bring the team closer to the front; perhaps it will end up being McLaren that switches focus to 2017 early.

The result of the Spanish GP weekend will therefore be critical for McLaren and for the midfield.