Can F1 drivers avoid Alonso's mistakes?

Stick or twist? That is the confounding question perennially facing Formula 1 drivers when trying to read the driver market, and how their own futures might fit into that shifting landscape.

It's something akin to crossing the road backwards wearing a blindfold, while being chased by a rabid dog. Your life absolutely depends on making the right move, but it's a situation fraught with peril, about which you can never know the full picture.

"Part of being a complete Formula 1 driver is being able to pick the teams to race at, being able to read the paddock and choose where to be at the right time," says Channel 4 F1 analyst and former grand prix driver Karun Chandhok.

"Alain Prost left Renault to go to McLaren when McLaren was on the up; he took a sabbatical as a gamble knowing he could get to Williams and win another championship in '93.

"Having that ability to read the paddock, and choose where you want to be at the right moments, is such a big part of the sport."

Even F1's top drivers struggle with this. Fernando Alonso is a double world champion, but hasn't won a title in 10 years since leaving Renault at the end of 2006.

He departed a championship-contending team in McLaren at the end of 2007, one season into a three-year deal. Since then he's always battled the handicap of driving for teams not quite capable of mounting a proper challenge.

Lewis Hamilton has played a blinder - quitting McLaren four years after his first world championship to join Mercedes. Now he is a triple world champion and winner of 51 grands prix. Only Michael Schumacher has won more in all of F1 history.

This is all about having the foresight, judgment, and opportunity, to read a constantly evolving competitive picture, and somehow know what will make the most sense for your long-term career prospects.

Trouble is, there is almost no such thing as a nailed-on long-term prospect in Formula 1, such is its fluid nature. All you can do is play the probabilities.

This is even more difficult if you are one of F1's midfield hopefuls, desperate to work (or buy) your way towards a top drive, lacking the clout of a world champion or multiple race winner, but believing you have the ultimate talent and potential to succeed.

Hot young properties come and go like the wind, so it is important to take chances when they come, or else you can quickly find yourself forgotten.

Take Nico Hulkenberg. Once feted as a future multiple world champion, the German has spent his entire career to this point flitting between midfield teams, from Williams to Force India to Sauber and back to Force India. He has finally been offered the chance to join a manufacturer team in Renault, and has grasped it with both hands.

This is logical. Hulkenberg is 29, and there appears little chance of him joining any of the big four names on the grid (Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull, McLaren) any time soon.

Current Force India team-mate Sergio Perez has taken a different view, turning down the chance to go where Hulkenberg is headed for 2017. The 26-year-old Mexican has a bit more time on his side, and has taken the short-term view that Force India is the place where he can achieve the best results now. Should he continue to perform, the logic goes, opportunity will come knocking again.

Carlos Sainz Jr has taken a similar approach, also turning down the chance to race for Renault on a multi-year agreement for a one-year extension at Toro Rosso, and 12 months more to prove to Red Bull he belongs in its A-team.

But he is also aware that his stock may not be so high in a year's time. He's chosen to stick, and back his own ability to vanquish Daniil Kvyat and remain one of F1's hottest young pretenders.

But let's face it, this is not clear-cut. Renault is going to finish ninth in the constructors' championship this year, and has a long way to go to get back to the front of the grid, with no guarantees it will ever get there (or not pull out before it does).

Romain Grosjean was so unconvinced that Renault would even complete its buyout of Lotus at the end of 2015 that he chose to jump ship to newcomer Haas for this year, and focus on trying to become Kimi Raikkonen's eventual successor at Ferrari.

A lot of drivers will have half an eye on that opportunity, as and when it presents itself. Valtteri Bottas (remaining with Williams for a further season, alongside newcomer Lance Stroll) came close last year, and will probably fancy his chances again. As will Perez, Grosjean, and Sainz too.

They all ultimately decided Renault wasn't for them right now. Kevin Magnussen joins their camp by jumping ship to Haas (perhaps fancying his ultimate chances at Ferrari as well), after finally allowing the option in his current Renault contract to expire.

The Dane previously insisted he wanted to stay with the French manufacturer and fight for his future. "I want to stay here, that's my target and what I want to do," said Magnussen recently. "It's a factory team that has the ability to fight for championships in the future, and that's what I want to be a part of."

With Magnussen deciding his immediate future lies away from Enstone, and talented rookie Esteban Ocon emerging as the favourite to succeed Hulkenberg at Force India, the way became clear for Magnussen's current team-mate Jolyon Palmer to remain at Renault alongside Hulkenberg.

Magnussen has faced down the tricky stick or twist conundrum. He has peered into the murky crystal ball and decided he's better off leaving a team that openly courted other drivers, and might still have ultimately overlooked his efforts and prior loyalty.

He has decided to join a different outift, with perhaps less potential, but seemingly greater desire to incorporate his talents, and possibly a future route into F1's most famous manufacturer team.

Haas incumbent Esteban Gutierrez must now hope he can somehow force his way past Ocon into Force India, make an unlikely return to former team Sauber (with whom he split in acrimonious circumstances at the end of 2014), or try to join the revitalised Manor operation.

Has Magnussen made the right call? It could be the best move he ever makes, or it could blow up in his face further down the line.

These decisions are not often straightforward. If it were easy Alonso would surely have got it right every time...