Analysis: Formula One has that Shrinking Feeling

Formula One is in the grip of a wasting disease, with Arrows poised to follow Prost into oblivion and little sign of any new blood to revive the suffering series.

From twenty teams entered in the 1989 championship, when there were so many cars jostling for space that the likes of Zakspeed, Eurobrun and Coloni were forced to pre-qualify, the glamour sport is now down to ten.

Arrows have vowed to appeal against the governing International Automobile Federation's decision to bar them from competing next season but any action looks fraught with difficulty.

Of greater concern is the fact that there are no replacements on the immediate horizon and that Arrows may not be the last privately-run team to give up the unequal struggle against well-funded manufacturers.

Prost collapsed in January owing around $28 million and Arrows have sought to go into administration. Nearly half the teams have laid off people this year.

Bosses met on Wednesday to discuss ways of cutting costs amid fears that the grid could soon be whittled down to 16 cars, a point that would force the remaining teams to field three cars, unless action is taken.

"People have got to start taking the issue of there possibly not being enough cars on the grid in future pretty seriously," Jordan's business development director Ian Phillips said after Arrows were left off the 2003 entry list.

"It could drop from 20 to 16 cars by the start of the 2004 season and if something isn't done urgently then I would say there is a fair chance of that happening."

Small Fortune

The quickest way to make a small fortune in Formula One is to set out with a big one but the costs have risen dramatically since that joke was first cracked in the early days of Grand Prix racing.

Any new team coming into Formula One must buy one of the most expensive tickets in world sport - posting a $48 million bond just to secure one of the 12 entry slots.

Japanese car giant Toyota, making their debut last season, are unlikely to have had much change from $200 million.

Australian Paul Stoddart, who bought Minardi last year, faces an annual outlay of at least $35 million to keep the smallest team on the grid running.

An entrepreneurial team such as Jordan operates at a medium level on an estimated $75 million while champions Ferrari, whose dominance has seen a decline in television viewing figures, inhabit another universe.

The Fiat-owned team's estimated budget for 2001, according to Eurobusiness magazine, was $284 million.

McLaren boss Ron Dennis has likened Formula One to a monster that devours cash and with sponsorship thin on the ground, neither Minardi nor Jordan have title backers for next year, it is becoming increasingly difficult to feed it.

Minardi had free Asiatech engines last year but that mysterious company is now in liquidation and the Anglo-Italian team are likely to have to pay around $15 million for Ford's Cosworth units in 2003.

Compare the situation to 12 years ago when Irish wheeler-dealer Eddie Jordan launched his team from an unpromising lock-up garage at Silverstone with a budget of around $3.0 million.

Jordan gave future champion Michael Schumacher his debut in 1991 and, equipped with Ford engines, the team regularly embarrassed works rivals Benetton.

That kind of money would barely get you into the paddock as a minor sponsor nowadays and men like David Sears, a successful Formula 3000 team owner, can only dream of making the logical progression to Formula One.

Those carmakers not involved in Formula One might baulk at the cost at a time of global recession.

"The problem is that there is no line of succession to the likes of Jordan and Sauber," said one paddock insider this week. "Say Volkswagen wanted to come in and it was going to cost them $200 million plus, they're not going to think about it."