A strategic masterclass: How Antonelli put himself on the cusp of F1 title at the US GP

Two points. This is all Kimi Antonelli needs to secure the 2026 Formula 1 title, a story that could see its resolution next weekend in Mexico City after his victory at the United States Grand Prix. He can surely feel it now: his name soon to be engraved in the drivers' championship trophy, as history is on the precipice of being written.

He's not there yet, and he knows that. He's still got a job to do at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez, a breathless 71-lap encounter still to be completed, but he can surely excuse himself the smallest thought of the roars around the Foro Sol if - if - he completes his mission with the professionalism to which we are accustomed.

But first, Austin. Despite forecasts of a one-stop strategy, the levels of degradation seen through practice hinted that the race could theoretically cross into the realms of a two-stopper if a team wanted to stick with the softer grades of tyre through the course of the race. Indeed, this had been in Red Bull's mind from the outset; it put Max Verstappen and Isack Hadjar into Q3 with just one set of tyres, with the intent of going all-in for Sunday's race to keep Verstappen's barely perceptible championship hopes alive.

Ferrari, too, was keen on taking an aggressive approach to the race. After reeling off the fastest times in all three practice sessions, the Prancing Horse looked poised to gallop through qualifying - but that final escalation of pace in Q3 simply did not arrive, and the brace of scarlet cars were gazumped to the top three positions on the grid by Antonelli's Mercedes and the two Red Bulls. Race pace, however, is Ferrari's forte - and if a race breaks beyond an out-and-out one-stopper, it has proven to be a factor this season.

It hadn't looked like Antonelli would sit at the head of the field at any point during the weekend; Mercedes was still honing its knowledge of the Sepang-spec updates that had caused some degree of consternation across the previous two weekends. But by Q3, that long journey through the desert - surrounded by reams of data - seemed to have produced a meaningful result: Antonelli pulled out the quickest lap among the first runs, and neither Verstappen, Hadjar, nor the Ferraris could beat him.

There was the suggestion of a chance that Antonelli could be overlapped at the start. Mercedes had appeared to commit to the one-stop, and Antonelli was equipped with the medium tyre; the quartet of cars behind him were all equipped with the soft, raring to make use of the expected advantage in traction off the line...assuming they could match Antonelli's getaway speed.

Verstappen could not do so. Primed to pin his car to the inside with the hope of forcing Antonelli to the outside kerb, he could do little but watch the Mercedes glide off into the distance with a beautifully measured start, before turning his attention to his wing mirrors as the Ferrari pair attempted to knock him further back. Leclerc forced his way past through the esses and Hamilton tried to follow suit, but Verstappen at least kept his 2021 title rival at bay. Sure enough, Leclerc had used a chunk of his battery in shaping for that move, which afforded Verstappen a riposte; after drawing close on the boost button on the run to Turn 12, the Dutchman dived past Leclerc during the switchback section at Turn 15, recapturing second place.

The only problem was that, in the drama, Antonelli had already scampered into a two-and-a-half second lead - and duly maintained it through the early laps. It was softs versus mediums, and the mediums were winning out.

Verstappen's strategy: soft-soft-medium

Verstappen found himself being mobbed by the Ferraris as Antonelli scampered away at the start

Photo by: Logan Riely / Getty Images

For Verstappen, having saved multiple sets of softs with his parsimonious approach to tyres in qualifying, the plan was to two-stop and try to rattle through the pack. If he could do that with clean air and get onto the tail of Antonelli, he'd be looking good; with a final stint on fresh mediums, he might have the upper hand versus a hard-shod Mercedes.

It was at the close of the 13th tour where Verstappen made his first stop: it came early, and the next set of softs locked him into the two-stopper. The gap between the McLarens and Liam Lawson had already yawned wide enough to allow Verstappen to drop in, and thus mitigated the work that the four-time champion needed to do. Lewis Hamilton made that one less overtake needed after responding a lap later, as did Oscar Piastri and Charles Leclerc on lap 15. Leclerc had been around two seconds behind Verstappen before the pit cycle opened, and five seconds behind once the Monegasque had made his stop, demonstrating the speed that Verstappen had found on the new tyres.

Lando Norris also moved aside when he stopped at the end of lap 17, switching to the hard for what ultimately became a one-stopper, meaning that George Russell was first on Verstappen's hit-list. Russell, encumbered with a five-second penalty for leaving the track and gaining an advantage on the opening lap, didn't really have an answer to the Red Bull and Verstappen eased past at Turn 12. Hadjar was next, but was evidently less keen to move aside when Verstappen cruised up behind him on the 23rd tour. Unsurprisingly, Verstappen complained that his team-mate had cost him time; Hadjar was running to a one-stop, and proved unnecessarily prickly when given the command to move aside.

Pre-race predictions put the delta between the medium and hard to around 0.9s per lap, but the medium was hanging on less adeptly compared to those predictions and the crossover between them emerged sooner

At this point, Verstappen was now over 12 seconds behind Antonelli - but the Italian was set to serve his sole stop at the end of the following tour; on doing so, Verstappen had the lead, but also had another stop to serve.

But the softs were starting to run out of performance, and his gap to Leclerc - and, by association, Antonelli on a fresh hard, was starting to fall. Verstappen began to complain that the RB22 was undriveable, flummoxed by the degrading performance and asked to juggle different torque maps to sort out the cornering performance. This was allowing Leclerc to catch up, shaving that five-second gap to just 1.2s, and this prompted Verstappen to complete his second stop of the race to take the medium.

Leclerc's strategy: soft-medium-hard

Leclerc found incredible pace during his final pair of stints - but fell short of a potential win

Photo by: Colin McMaster / LAT Images via Getty Images

Leclerc and Ferrari chose to peruse the full rainbow of Pirelli compounds over the US Grand Prix, particularly as it became clear from Norris' lap times that the hard tyre was performing better than expected. Pre-race predictions put the delta between the medium and hard to around 0.9s per lap, but the medium was hanging on less adeptly compared to those predictions and the crossover between them emerged sooner.

When Verstappen stopped, Leclerc assumed the lead - but scarcely for anything more than half a lap as Antonelli had scythed away at the Ferrari's advantage. Having been just under four seconds behind Leclerc after his stop, Antonelli was demonstrating the power of the hard tyre and was right on the SF-26's gearbox once Verstappen had called in to pit. With a run on Leclerc on the 32nd tour, Antonelli cruised past ahead of Turn 12, and then got his lines right through the following corners to protect against the switchback; the Ferrari was strong in the Turn 13-16 complex, but Antonelli was wise to it.

Still, Leclerc was not due to pit for a bit longer. Ferrari was plotting a final stint on the hard and, with the pace unlocked over the course of the race, it knew that Leclerc could effectively go flat-out with a robust compound and potentially challenge for second - and even the win.

Leclerc thus hung it out until the end of lap 39, stopping a lap later than Hamilton, and duly picked up the hard tyre. This time, the gap to Verstappen - who'd been motoring along well on the medium - had grown to nine seconds, with 16 laps left to play for. A second a lap? A tough ask. Yet, as Leclerc demonstrated, he began to find even more than that.

Verstappen, in the meantime, was facing a problem: Norris' McLaren. Once he'd got within two seconds of the papaya machine, he was finding it very difficult to break the back of the remaining gap and his progress had started to stall out. He was finding time on Norris, granted, but nowhere near at the rate required to cut into Antonelli's lead; with the same 16 laps remaining, he also needed to find over a second per lap - but the pace that Antonelli was registering out in front was sufficiently covering half of that off. Verstappen was initially finding about 0.5-0.6s per lap but, as Norris drew closer, this delta to Antonelli continued to fall.

At this point, Mercedes was starting to fear Leclerc more than Verstappen. Indeed, for every circulation that the Red Bull stayed behind the reigning champion, Leclerc was finding over 1.5s per lap - and about six laps after stopping, the Ferrari was already on the cusp of benefitting from an active overtake button. Verstappen soon had a choice: put a risky sneak-attack move on Norris, or face being relegated a position by Leclerc.

The subsequent dive on Norris at Turn 1 to open lap 47 was sublime, and it kept the wolf from the door...momentarily, at least.

Antonelli's strategy - medium-hard

The Lone Star meets the star of 2026, as Antonelli made a one-stop strategy work

Photo by: Alex Slitz / Getty Images

As Verstappen and Leclerc drew their battle lines, the situation was perfect for Antonelli. Although Mercedes had played a masterstroke in calling the one-stop, it nonetheless required Antonelli to put together a rapid assortment of laps despite the age of his tyres relative to his pursuers. Aside from one brief slip at Turn 12, having been frustrated by a due-to-be-lapped Alex Albon ahead, Antonelli was making the magic happen.

Norris' position as Verstappen's roadblock helped further; Verstappen was logging laps in the high 1m39s and low-1m40s between laps 40-46, which allowed Antonelli to open a 14.5s lead over Norris to a 16.5s advantage. Leclerc, in the meantime, was running in the low-to-mid 1m38s...

Once Verstappen was past Norris, Antonelli's lead felt the faintest tickle, but the Red Bull driver was then starting to struggle and could scarcely contain the rapid Leclerc for much longer. It actually looked easy when Leclerc got the run out of Turn 11 on the 49th lap, and he'd already dispatched Verstappen before the two had even started turning for the subsequent corner at the end of the back straight.

This was the classic slow-burner in Austin, one defined by strategic variance and the power of the tyre off-sets - but Antonelli and Mercedes didn't much fancy playing the game with Ferrari and Red Bull

But Leclerc was out of time. He needed to find over 2.5s per lap to have a hope of catching Antonelli - let alone passing him - and the race was subsequently put beyond all doubt when the virtual safety car nullified the race late on when Valtteri Bottas' Cadillac gave up the ghost. On the arrival of the green flag, Leclerc only made inroads as Antonelli wisely elected to back off slightly, lest he evoke the ire of any track limits officials - his proximity to a penalty in Singapore having informed his decision to keep it light in the dying stages of the grand prix.

Verstappen counted his blessings with the VSC as he accepted third place; Hamilton was tearing into his advantage either side of the break in full-speed running, and the delay had left the Briton without enough time to grab a double-podium for Ferrari. This was the classic slow-burner in Austin, one defined by strategic variance and the power of the tyre off-sets - but Antonelli and Mercedes didn't much fancy playing the game with Ferrari and Red Bull. They did their own thing, and it paid off handsomely.

Now, they just need to do the same again in Mexico. One more time should be enough.