The maths behind Antonelli becoming F1 world champion at Mexico GP

The Mercedes driver is set to win his maiden F1 crown

Kimi Antonelli has taken another giant step towards becoming Formula 1 world champion by dominating the United States Grand Prix from pole on Sunday.

The Mercedes driver consequently took his ninth victory of the 2026 season and it leaves him with one hand on the championship trophy - though it has been for a while.

So, when will he do it and become F1’s youngest ever world champion?

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There were six mathematical contenders heading into Austin - Antonelli, George Russell, Lewis Hamilton, Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris - as 139 points separated the drivers with 150 left available pre-Texas.

Three of those - Verstappen, Leclerc and Norris - have now dropped out of contention though, due to them finishing third, second and fifth respectively. All solid results, but it just shows how unlikely world championship glory was for them as it meant their hopes had ended.

For Antonelli to become champion at Circuit of the Americas, he needed to win with Russell finishing ninth or below and Hamilton taking fifth. But as his Mercedes team-mate took eighth and the Ferrari driver, who he succeeded at the Silver Arrows, finished fourth, the fight goes on to next weekend.

How Antonelli becomes world champion at Mexico GP

Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / LAT Images via Getty Images

There are now 125 points left available in the 2026 campaign with five rounds remaining - Mexico, Sao Paulo, Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi - provided the Middle Eastern grands prix go ahead amid the conflict.

Russell is now 123 points behind Antonelli and Hamilton is 124, so the 20-year-old Italian is all-but certain to take the crown at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez. After that race there will be 100 points left on the table, but the other two must be behind Antonelli by 99 or fewer, due to the championship leader having the most wins this season by a comfortable margin - so he would win it on countback.

This means both must outscore Antonelli by 24 and 25 points respectively. So for Russell, that entails him winning and his team-mate finishing no higher than 10th, while for Hamilton, he must also take victory but Antonelli not take any points.