The Mercedes weapon Ferrari lacks

'Success breeds success' is one of those aphorisms that encapsulates a more complicated truth than it presents. It superficially tells us much about the Mercedes Formula 1 team, which, far from stumbling in what was touted as likely to be its toughest season in years, has emerged from the first three races of 2019 in a stronger position than ever before. But it's more revealing to view Ferrari through this prism.

The Italian squad has achieved much in recent years, recovering quickly from its slow start to the V6 turbo hybrid era and emerging as a genuine title contender. While that is success of a sort, sport is fundamentally a binary question and Ferrari has not answered it by winning the world championship. As a consequence, it faces a tougher challenge going forwards than Mercedes would were their positions three races into the 2019 season reversed.

Inevitably, Ferrari team principal Mattia Binotto has gone from new-broom flavour of the month to being under pressure in just a few weeks. Yes, he has problems to tackle, but none are too serious.

The 2019 Ferrari hasn't been fast enough often enough - but not by much. The problem of managing established star Sebastian Vettel and rising one Charles Leclerc has flared up - but not by much. Its Chinese Grand Prix strategy highlights a longstanding weakness of Ferrari not knowing when to attack those in front or cover from behind and that cost it - but not by much. It has also already tackled the reliability problem that cost Leclerc victory in Bahrain. None of these problems, provided they do not grow, demand that Ferrari be demolished and rebuilt - it's only about small tweaks.

Binotto and those around him will have ruminated on these problems and worked hard to eliminate them. But Binotto lacks one crucial weapon that Mercedes has, one wrapped up in the idea that success breeds success. Mercedes has the confidence that comes from its years of triumph and, were it in the position in which Ferrari currently sits, it could just double down on the processes that have proved their robustness time and time again.

By contrast, Ferrari's world championship winning muscle memory has faded over the past decade. But overreacting to this disappointing start would worsen the situation. Binotto is a studious, calm character with a clear vision of what must be done. Those are the strengths that will stand him in good stead and allow him to focus on the areas that need improving without damaging so much that is good about Ferrari today.

No team is perfect. During its five years of dominance, Mercedes successfully tackled intra-team rivalries, reliability problems, cars with diva-like qualities and strategic mishaps and dug itself out of ostensibly bigger holes than Ferrari is currently in.

But every time you successfully solve a problem, confidence in the system builds. If you're under pressure and playing catch-up, provided you keep working in the way that's proved its worth - and avoid a blame culture to ensure staff can be honest about any weaknesses that must be tackled - that confidence is your most powerful weapon.

The confidence Mercedes had in its development direction and manufacturing capacity to take an audacious approach to pre-season testing was extraordinary. Running the first test with an early version of its car, then taking a giant leap forward with fundamental changes introduced at the second test that were the result of a development programme pushed as late as possible proved to be a masterstroke.

Given that most of the aero surfaces of the car were influenced, that also reflected confidence in the team's ability to get the most out of its design based on four rather than eight days of testing. It's also one of the reasons why we didn't see the best of the car in testing, with further gains made by interrogating the vast amounts of data in the gap between Barcelona and the Australian Grand Prix.

This confidence played a part in Mercedes prevailing last year. In the end, it was a comfortable victory but the battle with Ferrari was nip and tuck for two thirds of the season. Every time one team appeared to land a decisive blow and edge ahead, the other would riposte.

Ferrari derailed its own chances in 2018 with some rushed developments that didn't work, but Mercedes avoided getting too grabby and stuck with its tried and tested approach to development. Will Ferrari be secure enough not to go overly aggressive as it bids to close the gap this year?

The only danger of this confidence is that it transmutes into overconfidence. What may be termed 'confidence toxicity' is the greatest enemy of the successful, and is one of the reasons Toto Wolff and the Mercedes drivers downplay their success and talk up Ferrari. When you expect to win simply by turning up, you lose.

The season is only three races old and calm heads are needed to prevail. Now, it's about focused, detailed, rigorous work - the kind of thing Binotto is effective at fostering

Ferrari is in a different position. Decision-making processes haven't been battle-hardened as effectively as they have at Mercedes. But far from this reflecting as a weakness in Binotto, it's a chance for him to show how effective he really is.

Your two drivers pushing each other is not a bad problem to have, doubly so given Vettel's performances over the past 18 months have been patchy at times. He's still capable of being devastatingly fast, but you have to wonder if he got a little too comfortable with Kimi Raikkonen in the second car. So, provided it's managed properly, the consequence of this match up is either that Vettel is pushed back to his best, or Leclerc gradually eclipses him and becomes Ferrari's new spearhead.

Tempting as it is for teams to have a number one and number two driver, it's the easy option. Having a lesser driver in the second car gives you one less bullet in the chamber to fight with and can also reduce your chances in the constructors' championship. There are some infamous examples of two top drivers being in the same team causing problems, but it can also work extremely well. If Ferrari is to fight back in this championship, it needs to be racking up one-two finishes - like the one it already lost in Bahrain.

When Binotto was appointed, many lauded the fact that Ferrari had a leader who is calm, logical and sensible enough to avoid the scapegoating and bloodletting that has historically been the go-to resolution for Ferrari. It has always been at its best when avoiding these pitfalls, and given that its current plight is hardly catastrophic - no matter what certain parts of the Italian media may think - this is a good opportunity to build up some of that confidence from which Mercedes benefits.

It also depends on those above him in the Ferrari hierarchy - Louis Camilleri and John Elkann - allowing Binotto to do his job. There were times in Luca di Montezemolo's regime when he pushed the team to pursue short-term gains at the expense of the longer term, which was one of the reasons why Ferrari made such a dreadful start to the V6 hybrid era. A racing team can only develop at the pace it can develop, and introducing dicey or unproven upgrades to try to get ahead of its own natural development curve is fraught with danger.

The season is only three races old and calm heads are needed to prevail. The days when you could bolt a fan onto the back of a car and transform it are gone, so pursuing a magic bullet is the wrong direction. Now, it's about focused, detailed, rigorous work - the kind of thing Binotto is, by all accounts, effective at fostering.

There will be upgrades in Azerbaijan this weekend, and given most teams appear to be struggling to master the set-up nuances of the new regulations there's also a chance Ferrari will get more out of its car than it was able to in Australia and China.

Now is the time to back Binotto and let him do things his way rather than swinging wildly from hailing him as the second coming a few weeks ago and now declaring him a busted flush.

Ferrari hasn't had the start to the season it wanted or that was widely expected, but it's not been a disaster. Only by Binotto being given the chance to make his own changes will Ferrari have the chance to establish its own robust foundations and move towards the dynastic success expected of it.