Ferrari shows Mercedes how to handle a superstar

The latest unexpected twist in the Formula 1 driver market is that somehow Ferrari - that most conservative of teams when it comes to picking its driver line-up - has ended up making a decision for 2019 that puts the spotlight onto Mercedes.

It's the first time in a very long time that Ferrari has had the courage to promote a young, inexperienced driver. But it is totally justified given the talent in question is Charles Leclerc.

It means Ferrari ends up making the sort of decision we normally associate with Red Bull, while Mercedes is facing the prospect of its own junior superstar Esteban Ocon being left on the sidelines as alternative options gradually dry up around him.

In fairness, Mercedes has been somewhat unfortunate here. But it could have avoided being caught out by the recent chain of events that has made the 2018-19 driver market silly season one of the most explosive in recent memory.

Let's not forget that as F1 headed for its summer break after the Hungarian Grand Prix, Ocon was expected to move from Force India, after the first two years of a three-year deal with the Mercedes customer team, to Renault.

It was an arrangement of mutual benefit for two rival F1 manufacturers: Mercedes got its star-in-waiting the new experience of working with a big team, while Renault liked the idea of getting a French superstar into one of its cars, even if it was unlikely to ever turn into a permanent arrangement.

Presented with that scenario, and ignoring the benefit of crystal-clear hindsight, Mercedes' logic looks fine. It was going to further Ocon's development, while being able to maintain the harmony in its own team that developed almost immediately when Valtteri Bottas was drafted in as a short-notice replacement following Nico Rosberg's shock retirement at the end of 2016.

Mercedes could have avoided being caught out by the recent chain of events that has made the driver market silly season one of the most explosive

Mercedes announced a new deal for Bottas on July 20, yet two weeks later its Ocon plans were blown apart by Daniel Ricciardo's switch to Renault. It was a move that even caught his own Red Bull team out, so Mercedes could hardly have been expected to see that one coming.

In between those two 2019 deals, Ocon's current team Force India went into administration, starting a chain of events that resulted in an ownership change that is expected to result in Lance Stroll following his father Lawrence - now part of that new ownership regime - to the Silverstone-based outfit.

Mercedes probably could have seen this one coming, given that its relationship with Force India would have given it some insight into the team's financial plight. But again in many ways it had already covered off this eventuality by working towards finding Ocon a home elsewhere with Renault, so did it really do anything wrong?

Taking each incident that's affected Ocon's future in isolation, it's hard to pinpoint any precise moment that Mercedes reached a fork in the road and clearly went in the wrong direction. If Ocon ends up without a seat for next year, Mercedes can legitimately say that it's a scenario that only becomes obvious when looked at in hindsight.

But Mercedes had one option available before everything kicked off in the driver market, and it's the step Ferrari has taken: if you think your wonderkid who is driving for a customer team is the real deal, then promote him to one of your own cars.

This isn't a pitch to talk Bottas out of a top F1 seat. After covering his formative years in Formula 3 and GP3, and watching him develop into a solid performer with Williams, it was great to see him get a surprise chance at Mercedes and get to prove himself as a grand prix winner. This argument isn't actually about the merits of Bottas at all.

It all comes down to how great Mercedes thinks Ocon is. The fact that he has a defeat of Max Verstappen on his CV - when they were fierce rivals in European F3 and Ocon took the crown - is just one of the many achievements he has to his name that backs up the talk in the F1 paddock that he could be something special.

If Mercedes truly believes he is the real deal, and effectively the heir to Lewis Hamilton at the top of the tree (or should that be three-pointed star?), then if it had shown the conviction to back him, it would never have found itself in a situation where his career momentum is at stake, and his fate was in the mercy of the decisions of other teams and drivers.

Some drivers become that irresistible force that cannot be ignored

Some drivers can make a year on the sidelines early in their career work out - it didn't hurt Fernando Alonso when he skipped the 2002 season after a year at Minardi then instantly became a frontrunner with Renault in '03 - but he spent his year off completing more than 7000km of testing.

If Ocon is shuffled into a reserve role for 2019, he won't get anywhere near that kind of seat time. Antonio Giovinazzi, one of the higher-profile reserve drivers in F1 at the moment, has managed just over 2000km and two FP1 outings, and that's with both Ferrari and Sauber making use of him.

Some drivers become that irresistible force that cannot be ignored. Leclerc did that under Ferrari's watch and convinced the late Sergio Marchionne that he was the man for the job in 2019 before the chairman's death this summer. After the initial talk that the new hierarchy would favour Raikkonen instead, they chose to honour Marchionne's wishes.

Ferrari wasn't making this decision under much pressure, because Leclerc's back-up option with Sauber was never going to go away. Taking the conservative option of giving Raikkonen another one-year deal was available because it has a say over one of Sauber's seats, so the scenarios that have effectively cost Ocon two berths on the grid could not come into play.

Ferrari still took what many would consider to be the braver decision. Those people need to pay more attention to how good Leclerc is.

Mercedes has been unfortunate with Ocon over the past two months, certainly, and it should be applauded for its efforts to help drivers progress up to, and in recent cases into, F1. But this is a situation it left itself at risk of being caught in when it decided to give Bottas a new deal before the other moving parts in the driver market had come to a halt.

Hopefully it doesn't ask for too much sympathy over the situation (Mercedes motorsport boss Toto Wolff has already said "It makes no sense to complain"), which is further complicated by Red Bull - ever the opportunist of an organisation when it comes to snapping up talent - making clear it would be interested in Ocon for Toro Rosso if he was contractually free.

Red Bull has already beaten Mercedes to the signing of Verstappen when he was first out of karts, largely based on the fact that it could offer him a fast-track to F1 because it has two teams on the grid. But Verstappen would have also detected its record for promoting drivers to the A-team when the time is right.

If anyone else is given the choice of Red Bull or Mercedes in the near future, they could well look at Ocon's situation, and the similar fate that could affect Formula 2 championship leader George Russell, and wonder if the big silver door will ever open.

Red Bull, like any other team on the grid with a vacancy, would love to get its hands on Ocon, although that would initially be to place him at Toro Rosso rather than its own top team.

But that's the advantage it's afforded by taking the expensive route of owning two F1 teams. Mercedes has ruled out ever doing the same, and from a financial perspective that probably makes a lot of sense.

However, the feedback from the other teams on the grid that have been looking for drivers has been unanimous. No matter how good he is, a Mercedes-contracted Ocon is not a prospect they want to take on, because they'll almost certainly have to give him back one day, and ultimately they'll have just helped Mercedes prime him for a promotion.

Mercedes has admitted it may have to consider its ties to Ocon if they end up preventing him from getting a drive, but it can understandably make a case that after investing in him to this stage, it wants to be the one that reaps those rewards.

If it had believed in him enough two months ago, it wouldn't be in this situation.