Could Russell match Verstappen's shock debut victory feat?

As impressive as George Russell's Formula 1 career may have been to date, the way he has seamlessly slotted into the Mercedes squad in Bahrain has been remarkable.

A little over 24 hours after driving the Mercedes W11 car for the very first time in place of COVID-positive Lewis Hamilton, Russell qualified second for the Sakhir Grand Prix, falling just 0.026 seconds shy of a maiden pole position as he lost out narrowly to team-mate Valtteri Bottas.

Russell said he felt "gutted" to have lost out by such a small margin, but the result was still admirable. He's racing with smaller race boots than normal, an unfamiliar steering wheel and a seat that is not entirely comfortable - and yet none of it appears to be stopping him.

"Having been thrown into the cold water, he's definitely swimming," said Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff after qualifying.

"Our expectation was that if he finished in the top five in qualifying, that would have been good enough, because he was drafted in at such short notice. We are all impressed, but we are not surprised."

Nor were many of Russell's peers. On Thursday, Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris were quick to talk up the Williams regular's chances of even winning the race. Leclerc went as far as saying he would bet on it, were he that way inclined.

So when Russell continued his solid practice form from Friday - where he led both FP1 and FP2 - by sticking his car on the front row of the grid, the possibility of a new F1 winner does not look outside the realms of possibility.

The last time a driver won on their debut for a team came in 2016, when Max Verstappen took a remarkable victory for Red Bull at the Spanish Grand Prix.

Verstappen had been promoted into the Red Bull seat four races into the season after a rough period for Daniil Kvyat, who was sent in the opposite direction back to Toro Rosso.

Just as Russell has gone from racing far down the order and never paying much thought to silverware before this weekend, Verstappen also experienced a similar shift as he was catapulted into a front-running car part-way into his second season in F1.

"I remember in Q1 and Q2, [Max] actually had the upper hand on Daniel. But then just not having any experience with the car as the circuit was evolving, Daniel wound more front wing into the car and extracted a great lap" Christian Horner

"That car will feel night and day different, in a good way," Verstappen said when asked what Russell would experience this weekend.

"I had the same when I jumped in the Red Bull car. There was a lot to learn, but I drove out, and I was like, 'oh my God, what a difference a car can make!' You don't know before."

That was not a luxury afforded to Verstappen in 2016. In the third year of the V6 hybrid era, Mercedes comfortably remained the fastest team, and would go on to enjoy the most dominant season in F1 history by winning 19 out of 21 races.

In qualifying, Verstappen would finish fourth, over a second off the pole time set by Hamilton in the Mercedes W07. He had led team-mate Daniel Ricciardo in both Q1 and Q2, but struggled to find much time in Q3, leaving him four-tenths of a second back from the sister Red Bull in the final session.

"He astounded us from the moment he got in the car because there was no shakedown or anything like that, similar to George," remembered Red Bull team boss Christian Horner.

"I remember in Q1 and Q2, he actually had the upper hand on Daniel. But then just not having any experience with the car as the circuit was evolving, Daniel wound more front wing into the car and extracted a great lap and they qualified third and fourth."

The Red Bull drivers had been anticipating to scrap for the final podium position in Barcelona, which in itself would have been a huge result on Verstappen's team debut. But when the two Mercedes cars collided on the run to Turn 4 in one of the final major fractures in the Hamilton/Rosberg relationship, it suddenly became a battle for victory.

Red Bull immediately moved to split strategies on the restart as the Ferraris of Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Raikkonen lurked behind.

"We ran different strategies in the race, giving Daniel what we thought was the preferred strategy on what was a three-stop," said Horner. "But Max went out and made a two-stop work, as did Kimi on that day - and won the race!"

Both Red Bull and Ferrari felt the offset of the Pirelli tyres was great enough to trump track position around the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya, where it is notoriously difficult to overtake.

But even with fresher tyres, Ricciardo and Vettel were powerless to get ahead of either Verstappen or Raikkonen in the closing stages, allowing the 18-year-old to lead home the train of four cars and become F1's youngest winner.

"It was astounding that someone of his experience and age - you have to remember at the time - the maturity and control that he showed," said Horner. "It was a fairytale debut."

Verstappen's promotion was swiftly agreed in the aftermath of the Russian Grand Prix, where Kvyat had crashed twice into Vettel in two corners, giving Red Bull all the reason it needed to make the switch. It ensured there was some time to at least complete some simulator work and get the Red Bull RB12 a little more to his liking.

"People are expecting a lot, but I think it's all just more get up to speed, don't think about the outside, just work with the team and enjoy. It's the best car on the grid to drive, so you've got to make the most of it" Verstappen's advice to Russell

But that kind of time is not something that has been afforded to Russell. Although he is known to the Mercedes team and has worked with many of the mechanics and engineers on test programmes in the past, he is very much fitting straight in to what is Hamilton's team. He could not do any simulator work or adjustments ahead of first practice on Friday - yet was able to be on the pace from the off.

Russell is also facing a new level of intensity across the garage in the form of a proven grand prix winner. Bottas may have sunk in the title fight against Hamilton this year, but the gap between them in qualifying has been around one-tenth of a second in average this season. Bottas' bad luck has also denied him a couple of victories, and on his day, he is extremely difficult to beat.

PLUS: The risks and rewards of Russell's Mercedes opportunity

It marks a new benchmark for Russell. There was always a fairly large gap to Robert Kubica through their time together at Williams, and although Nicholas Latifi has been a more even match, he has not been on Russell's level. When Verstappen moved up to Red Bull, it came after a fairly tense battle against Carlos Sainz Jr at Toro Rosso as both looked to stake a claim for a future seat with the senior squad, meaning going up against Ricciardo was less of a shock.

But much as Russell is in new territory, so is Bottas. He has gone from being the chaser trying to match one of the greatest drivers in the history of F1 to being the reference point. As much as Mercedes may deny this is a shootout for a 2022 seat, the chance to get a direct comparison between Russell and Bottas is something that will only intensify talk of a possible replacement in the future.

Matching Verstappen's debut win feat will be tough given Russell has had less time to prepare, but the one huge factor in his favour is the level of opposition. In truth, he has two drivers to beat: Bottas, and the man he is trying to emulate, Verstappen.

"He knows many of the people and it's the best car currently in Formula 1," said Horner. "It's won the most races this year, it's an enormous opportunity for him, and one that I'm sure that he's looking to make great use of.

"It benchmarks him against Valtteri. I'm sure Toto's looking to use it to perhaps negotiate Lewis's contract in some way, shape or form. It will be fascinating to see how it plays out but it's great to see another youngster getting that chance and opportunity."

But Verstappen's advice to Russell was simple: "Just enjoy it."

He added: "People are expecting a lot, but I think it's all just more get up to speed, don't think about the outside, just work with the team and enjoy. It's the best car on the grid to drive, so you've got to make the most of it."