The risk and reward of Russell's Mercedes opportunity

Had Lewis Hamilton's positive coronavirus test come back when the teams gathered in the Bahrain paddock tomorrow, then there is little doubt that Stoffel Vandoorne would be making his Formula 1 return for Mercedes this weekend.

As designated reserve driver, Vandoorne is the man that Mercedes trust to jump in the car in an instant should one of their regular drivers suddenly find themselves unable to continue.

But it was the timing of Hamilton being taken down by COVID-19, on the morning after the Bahrain Grand Prix, and with four days to go before cars returned to the track, that opened the doors for Mercedes to think bigger picture.

The easiest option would have been for team boss Toto Wolff to simply slot Vandoorne in anyway. The Belgian would have done a perfectly good job; probably finishing on the podium and then being able to return to his more regular focus on Formula E.

But Wolff is never someone who does something just because it is easy. He is always thinking one or two steps ahead; he has shown time and again he is able to balance the risks and rewards that come with any decision he makes.

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Whatever the financial or personal settlement that has been made between Mercedes and Williams to oil the cogs that meant George Russell would be released for at least this weekend, it would have been at the very bottom of the list of considerations when it came to the driver choice.

Instead, there is a much bigger picture at play here: one that will play out over two time frames: the immediate exciting one this weekend, as Russell is handed the chance to show what he can do in the best car on the grid. But there is also a longer term trend here that revolves around the future driver line-up.

As a Mercedes young driver, Russell has always been viewed as part of its future works programme, and it's always seemed to have been a question of when, not if he would get the big call up.

It has certainly happened sooner than anyone could have anticipated, but what a great opportunity this is for him to show the class, speed, intelligence and talent that we've seen through his successful junior career (GP3 and F2 champion), plus at Williams when the car has allowed him.

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A strong showing in the Sakhir GP will serve simply to leave Mercedes even more convinced about what he can offer when it comes to the next time it has to make a call on who takes the main seats.

With a front running car, only the very best job will be good enough. If he qualifies one second off Bottas, and ends up battling outside the points to come home in 14th, then that's going to be viewed as a poor weekend

But it's not all sunlit uplands for Russell and Mercedes. For beyond the benefits of his outing, there are some obvious risks, especially when it comes to the reputations of both the drivers who will be in the W11 this weekend.

For Russell, there will be incredible scrutiny on the job he does in Bahrain. He is stepping into the quickest car on the grid, and there will be no excuse if he is not mixing it there at the sharp end of the grid.

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One of the benefits (indeed the very reason) that Russell is having his learning experiences at Williams is that he is much more out of the spotlight than if he was put in a car much higher up the grid.

When he shines and does something sensational, it gets noticed. If there is some small slippage in performance and he has an average weekend, he doesn't face a barrage of criticism and stress. It's only really when something goes catastrophically wrong in public - like that spin behind the safety car in Imola - that there is a bit more focus on the downsides.

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With a front running car, only the very best job will be good enough. If he qualifies one second off Bottas, and ends up battling outside the points to come home in 14th, then that's going to be viewed as a poor weekend.

And in a sport where you are only ever as good as your last race, a black mark against his name for what he did when he was handed a Mercedes opportunity may well dampen talk that he is the man who should be grabbed full time by the works team.

But it's not just Russell's reputation at stake; Bottas is under some pressure too. Thanks to a mixture of bad luck and Hamilton brilliance, the Finn has had more frustration than joy this season in a campaign that never really gained much momentum.

With Hamilton out of the frame for this weekend, Bottas is now the clear favourite for the win in Bahrain. For all the talent that Russell has, Bottas is the man with the experience of the W11, the understanding and relationships inside the team and knowledge of how Mercedes beats its drum through a GP weekend.

Should Russell rock up, whack the car on pole by a similar margin to what Hamilton habitually does and then disappear up the road on Sunday, then that will add fuel to the fire to those who suggest that perhaps Bottas isn't the right man to be there for much longer.

The dangers for both drivers' reputations are obvious, but being a successful F1 team is about constantly judging the risk/reward ratio. And when you sit back and analyse the pros and cons of choosing Russell, the positives far outweigh the negatives.

If Russell has a poor weekend, then ultimately so what? Mercedes knows (it has access to all the understanding and data at Williams) that there is a longer term project in play and him not performing as a last-minute replacement will not serve to divert him from that path.

If an F1 driver wants to be the best, then he has to be ready to be up against the best. That's the very reason Mercedes has gone the way it has for this weekend

Even if there is no hard result at the end of it, Russell will return to Williams such a more knowledgeable and better driver. He will understand what a race-winning grand prix car feels like, he will know how a title-winning team operates and he will better understand the pressures and strains that come from fighting at the front of the grid.

Williams will be getting back a much-improved driver whatever the result at the chequered flag at the end of the Sakhir Grand Prix.

For Bottas, the value of being up against and beating Russell is much greater than it would be seeing off Vandoorne, who hasn't raced in Formula 1 since the end of 2018.

While Russell will likely keep Bottas on his toes, let's not forget the Finn has been facing off against potentially the greatest F1 driver of all time for the past few years. If he has managed to cope with that, then there is ultimately nothing to fear from a team-mate stepping up into the team on a last-minute call up.

Bottas stamping his authority on the field this weekend, and edging Russell home (even if there is a bit of a battle), will act as a confidence boost and proof of exactly what he brings Mercedes.

If an F1 driver wants to be the best, then he has to be ready to be up against the best. That's the very reason Mercedes has gone the way it has for this weekend: it's best for the team, it's best for Bottas and, perhaps most exciting of all for now, it's best for Russell.