Why the DTM driver market is about to go crazy

The sort of fanfare that came with Gary Paffett's new Mercedes contract this week is something that never usually surrounds a simple contract renewal in the DTM, even when the three-pointed star signs new deals with big name ex-Formula 1 stars.

But this wasn't a case of Stuttgart purely over-egging a small piece of news in the hope of grabbing a few additional headlines. This was a line being drawn in the sand as the DTM driver market prepares to burst into life like never before.

Since the beginning of 2006, Audi and Mercedes have had the DTM all to themselves. During that time, no driver has moved directly from one marque to the other. That has been partly down to a gentlemans' agreement that is effectively in place between the two manufacturers - if they don't poach from each other, there is no real market for the drivers to use to their advantage, making it much easier to control salaries.

But that is all changing now BMW is preparing to rejoin this arena for the first time since 1992. The third element of the DTM's 2012 German love triangle knows that it will need some current DTM expertise within its ranks, and since last year it has been on an aggressive recruitment push for drivers and team personnel.

Paffett was the first of the Mercedes stars to commit to a new long-term deal © LAT

It has certainly handed some power back to the drivers - several have admitted in private over the winter that a bit of interest from BMW strengthens their position when negotiating with their current employers. That doesn't just apply to financial demands, but it can also be a powerful weapon for those in older-spec cars pushing for a promotion.

All of this has upset the very stable waters that Mercedes and Audi had created over the past few years. Plenty of drivers on the current DTM grid have had talks - some more serious than others - with BMW about joining its six-car line-up from 2012. And this is what leads us back to the significance of Mercedes making such a fuss about securing Paffett's future.

As much as anything else, it is the best way of Norbert Haug's squad issuing a firm 'hands off' warning regarding one of its hottest properties. The last thing one of the current teams will want is lose one of its top drivers to the new rival at the table. And they won't want speculation about departing drivers upsetting their 2012 plans, so we can expect more of these announcements as the year goes on.

But all of the finer details of the DTM driver market will remain top secret. I know that certain drivers who have been in discussions with BMW have had very stern warnings not to utter a word of it to anyone - it's certainly been a new experience for some to be getting in trouble with a manufacturer they are not even signed to!

For that reason, any public denials from drivers regarding a potential move to BMW have to be taken with a pinch of salt. Some could well be telling the truth, but others are certainly having to tell the odd white lie out of fear of upsetting a very delicate situation.

BMW's return is set to end the 'gentlemans' agreement' between Audi and Mercedes © LAT

Mercedes and Audi will be keen to get drivers signed up for next year so they can really get to work on developing their next-generation cars that will start racing next year. For now Mercedes can rest safe in the knowledge that Paffett can assume most of the 2012 development work, as there is no risk of him then departing to Munich armed with a wealth of very useful information.

Paffett is the first big name to be officially taken off the market, but that still leaves plenty of fruit on the tree for BMW to pick at. In its six-car line-up it is widely expected that at least two seats will be taken by drivers already contracted to the Munich-based manufacturer. But it will have to pick up somebody with some current DTM experience so that it can at least have a benchmark.

Recently departed Audi drivers such as Markus Winkelhock and Alexandre Premat would fit that bill, but neither are proven race winners at this level, nor have they ever led a top team in the latest-spec machinery.

Pinching drivers from the top of Audi's line-up is always going to be tough, as the additional opportunities in sportscars tend to prevent star names from looking elsewhere for employment.

For much of last year, Jamie Green was often suggested by paddock insiders as the man BMW needed to go after. At that time he was in a second year in older machinery - and doing a seriously impressive job it must be said. But Paul di Resta's departure from the Mercedes HWA fold left a hole at the top table, and Green's thoroughly deserved promotion will most likely prevent his head from being turned.

Spengler has denied he wants to leave Mercedes for BMW © LAT

Bruno Spengler has long been linked to a switch to spearhead BMW's programme, and his track record in the series would certainly fit the bill. But for years the Canadian has been the perfect cog in the Mercedes machine. No matter what goes on behind closed doors, his public persona is always spot on, and he has always seemed the ideal product of a well-controlled PR machine.

To think of Spengler anywhere other than Mercedes had always seemed unlikely, but that is a relationship that turned down a rocky road after he slipped from a dominant position mid-season to lose out to both di Resta and Paffett in the 2010 title race.

There were reports of a bust-up during winter testing which resulted in Spengler leaving a test and Mercedes having to call in one of his team-mates at the last minute. And it should be noted that his deal for 2011 was only confirmed around five weeks before the start of the season.

Spengler has put all that behind him to make a very strong start to this season, so for the second year running he is sitting on top of the standings. And recently he denied having any interest in leaving the Mercedes fold. But it is surely quite telling that his bosses put re-signing Paffett - and doing it so publicly - at the top of its agenda.