Rating the Chase contenders

For the first time since the Chase format has been in place in the NASCAR Sprint Cup, all four Hendrick Motorsports drivers are in contention for the title - counting for a third of the play-off field.

Despite recent rules tweaks, a consequence of developments pioneered by the leading Cup outfit, Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Jeff Gordon and Kasey Kahne should continue to deliver the kind of performances that have yielded seven wins for the outfit in 2012.

However they face some strong opposition, led by reigning champion Tony Stewart, who has had a few rough weeks leading into the Chase but has Hendrick machinery at Stewart-Haas.

Meanwhile Joe Gibbs Racing's sole contender Denny Hamlin arrives with great momentum, winning two of the last three races, as does Brad Keselowski in Penske's final season with Dodge. Keselowski has scored more points than anyone in the past 10 weeks.

Greg Biffle leads Roush Fenway's championship hopes, following an impressively consistent regular season, while his team-mate Matt Kenseth hopes to bid farewell to his team with his best Chase yet.

While there are no new faces in contention this year, Michael Waltrip Racing brings in some fresh air by making the play-off for the first time in its history with Clint Bowyer and Martin Truex Jr.

Last year Stewart proved the Chase can be quite unpredictable. Win-less in the regular season and on the cusp of missing the Chase, he triumphed in five of the 10 play-off races.

THE CONTENDERS

1. Denny Hamlin
Joe Gibbs Racing
Points: 2012 (4 wins)
Age: 31
Hometown: Chesterfield, Virginia
Wins: 21 - 4 in Chase races
Last 10 results: 3, 25, 2, 6, 29, 34, 11, 1, 1, 18
Average finish last 10: 13.0
Average finish Chase races: 14.1
Regular season average finish: 12.6

Hamlin should lead Toyota's title bid. He came very close to halting Johnson's championship streak in 2010, only to succumb to the pressure of leading the points into the season finale. Two years later Hamlin is a bit more savvy, ready to become a father in January, and with champion crew chief Darian Grubb calling the shots for his #11 team he looks better equipped than ever to put up the fight. He has four non-finishes thus far in 2012 and needs to avoid any more.

Hamlin says: "I'm just going to have way more fun this time around. If you put me back in that [2010] situation at Homestead I guarantee a championship."

Rating:

2. Jimmie Johnson
Hendrick Motorsports
Points: 2009 (3 wins)
Age: 36
Place of birth: El Cajón, California
Wins: 58 - 20 in Chase races
Last 10 results: 6, 36, 7, 1, 14, 3, 27, 2, 34, 13
Average finish last 10: 14.3
Average finish Chase tracks: 9.0
Regular season average finish: 11.3

The five-time Cup champion has led the most laps this year and outscored his rivals at intermediate tracks but on the other hand he has five DNFs, including the three restrictor-plate races, of which there will be one in the Chase. His play-off numbers are unmatched, but getting too 'greedy' over a sixth title could well get in his way.

Johnson says: "My experience is when I do the best job I can and my team does, none can beat us. So why worry about them? That's how I've won five championships and I'm not going to change it."

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3. Tony Stewart
Stewart-Haas Racing
Points: 2009 (3 wins)
Age: 41
Place of birth: Columbus, Indiana
Wins: 47 - 11 in Chase races
Last 10 results: 32, 1, 12, 10, 5, 19, 32, 27, 22, 4
Average finish last 10: 16.4 (worst among Chasers)
Average finish Chase races: 12.5
Regular season average finish: 13.4

The reigning champion picked up where he left off last year, winning twice in the first five races of 2012, then claiming a third victory at Daytona in July. However the last few weeks have delivered a sudden slump, even deeper than this time last year, when he downplayed his title chances. But then he has proved that he can turn things around like flipping a switch, just as he did last week at Richmond where he finished fourth after being among the slowest in practice the day before.

Stewart says: "I feel like we're in a better position than we were last year, but I still feel we're not exactly where we need to be."

Rating:

4. Brad Keselowski
Penske Racing
Points: 2009 (3 wins)
Age: 28
Place of birth: Rochester Hills, Michigan
Wins: 7
Last 10 results: 1, 8, 5, 9, 4, 2, 2, 30, 3, 7
Average finish last 10: 7.1
Average finish Chase races: 18.8
Regular season average finish: 17.4

Some reckon Brad Keselowski is the 2012 Chase's dark horse. He certainly was last year, but this time around he is expected to be more of a true contender given his season-long performance. He has outscored everyone in the 10 weeks leading into the Chase and has better momentum than his maiden play-off campaign a year ago. The hopes of Penske and Dodge rest solely on him.

Keselowski says: "I think we have as good a chance as anyone else, if not better. In the last 10 weeks there's been nobody stronger."

Rating:

Greg Biffle © LAT

5. Greg Biffle
Age: 42
Points: 2006 (2 wins)
Place of birth: Vancouver, Washington
Wins: 18 - 7 in Chase races
Last 10 results: 21, 21, 9, 3, 15, 6, 1, 19, 15, 9
Average finish last 10: 11.9
Average finish Chase races: 14.5
Regular season average finish: 9.7

After missing the Chase last year Greg Biffle has led his Roush Fenway team-mates in 2012, topping the standings for most of the regular season, as Carl Edwards did last year, but winning twice in the process. He has finished every race, has completed more laps than anyone, leading around 10 per cent of them, only bettered by Johnson and Hamlin. He should be a factor, but will probably need to exceed his regular-season numbers in order to win the title.

Biffle says: "I think we need to do exactly what we've done. We've beaten them up to this point, now we just have to do it for 10 more weeks."

Rating:

Clint Bowyer © LAT

6. Clint Bowyer
Michael Waltrip Racing
Points: 2006 (2 wins)
Age: 33
Place of birth: Emporia, Kansas
Wins: 7 - 4 in Chase races
Last 10 results: 16, 29, 3, 15, 8, 4, 7, 7, 27, 1
Average finish last 10: 11.7
Average finish Chase races: 13.0
Regular season average finish: 11.5

The stats show Bowyer has been the best driver at short tracks during the regular season but unfortunately those are not prevalent in the Chase. Yet, MWR cars have proved fast everywhere and Bowyer heads into the play-off boosted by his latest victory at Richmond. Year one of the Bowyer/Waltrip alliance has delivered more than anyone expected and he seems ready to continue surprising in the coming 10 weeks.

Bowyer says: "If we can keep this bus going at MWR I think we can compete. This could be the year - this is the best I've ever run leading into the Chase."

Rating:

Dale Earnhardt Jr. © LAT

7. Dale Earnhardt Jr
Hendrick Motorsports
Points: 2003 (1 win)
Age: 37
Place of birth: Kannapolis, North Carolina
Wins: 19 - 2 in Chase races
Last 10 results: 4, 15, 4, 4, 32, 28, 4, 12, 7, 14
Average finish last 10: 12.4
Average finish Chase races: 19.4
Regular season average finish: 9.9

Dale Earnhardt Jr sounds relaxed, happy, like he is enjoying the moment. By far, 2012 provides NASCAR's most popular driver with his best shot at winning a Cup title, having shown impressive consistency through the regular season, adding his first victory in nearly four years. This should be his best Chase yet, but he will need to step it up in order to get to Homestead with a fighting chance.

Earnhardt says: "We've been pretty strong throughout the whole season. I feel like we've gotten better and better as the year's went."

Rating:

Matt Kenseth © LAT

8. Matt Kenseth
Roush Fenway Racing
Points: 2003 (1 win)
Age: 40
Place of birth: Cambridge, Wisconsin
Wins: 22 - 2 in Chase races
Last 10 results: 7, 3, 13, 35, 23, 8, 17, 25, 9, 5
Average finish last 10: 14.5
Average finish Chase races: 14.8
Regular season average finish: 10.3

If the Chase turns out to be as competitive as it looks, then consistency will be key to contending for the title. When that's the case, you expect Kenseth to be in the mix. The 2003 Cup champion hopes to finish his tenure at Roush Fenway Racing on a high, but it remains to be seen if his imminent departure dents his hopes in any way. Certainly his results haven't been any better since he announced it.

Kenseth says: "I think the distractions were May and June. I really feel like that's behind us. Everybody's known for so long what's going on."

Rating:

Kevin Harvick © LAT

9. Kevin Harvick
Richard Childress Racing
Points: 2000
Age: 36
Place of birth: Bakersfield, California
Wins: 18 - 2 in Chase races
Last 10 results: 11, 23, 8, 13, 16, 15, 16, 15, 5, 10
Average finish last 10: 13.2
Average finish Chase races: 13.3
Regular season average finish: 12.0

Harvick and his Richard Childress team have gone winless this season and the two-time Nationwide Series champion made the Chase by virtue of consistency. Gil Martin, his crew chief when he finished third in the points in 2010 and '11, has been called back to try to reignite the spark recently lacking Harvick, who hasn't won since Richmond last year.

Harvick says: "We don't know how it's all going to turn out. We've got to go race some races and I know I feel a lot better about where we are the last few weeks than I did three months ago."

Rating:

Martin Truex Jr. © LAT

10. Martin Truex Jr
Michael Waltrip Racing
Points: 2000
Age: 32
Place of birth: Mayetta, New Jersey
Wins: 1
Last 10 results: 8, 17, 11, 8, 3, 10, 10, 11, 4, 21
Average finish last 10: 10.3
Average finish Chase races: 19.8
Regular season average finish: 11.3

Martin Truex Jr has shown both speed and consistency, scoring more points than his team-mate Bowyer in the regular season. But then he has been unable to translate that into wins, coming close twice but just not closing the deal at Kansas and more recently Atlanta. This is his best Cup season yet, but he needs to win more in order to be a true championship contender.

Truex says: "We've got to make good decisions, got to be smart and for us, this being our first Chase as a team, not let the emotion of being in the Chase and going for the championship get in the way of doing our jobs properly."

Rating:

Kasey Kahne © LAT

11. Kasey Kahne (wildcard 1)
Hendrick Motorsports
Points: 2000 (2 wins)
Age: 32
Place of birth: Enumclaw, Washington
Wins: 14 - 2 in Chase races
Last 10 results: 2, 7, 1, 12, 2, 13, 3, 9, 23,12
Average finish last 10: 8.4
Average finish Chase races: 18.5
Regular season average finish: 14.3

Kasey Kahne is in the Chase only for the third time in his career but this certainly seems his best shot at really contending for the title. In his first year at Hendrick Motorsports he has totally turned his season around. Having been 31st in the points after six races while going through all sorts of issues, he earned his place in the play-off thanks to victories at Charlotte and Loudon, two of the 10 tracks also in the Chase schedule. This is the year where Kahne has to show his true potential as a future champion.

Kahne says: "I feel that we can contend because of where we've come from. We started off pretty poor and have fought back to where we are now."

Rating:

Jeff Gordon © LAT

12. Jeff Gordon (wildcard 2)
Age: 41
Points: 2000 (1 win)
Place of birth: Vallejo, California
Wins: 86 - 3 in Chase races
Last 10 results: 5, 12, 6, 5, 1, 21, 28, 3, 2, 2
Average finish last 10: 8.5
Average finish Chase races: 12.7
Regular season average finish: 14.9

The mustache from Gordon's early Cup days is growing back this year as the four-time champion fulfils a promise he made to his team if he made the Chase. He claims to feel rejuvenated and only Keselowski has scored more points than him in the last 10 races leading to the play-off. But Gordon has yet to show he can be as strong as Johnson or Stewart in the last 10 weeks of the season. Eleven years have passed since his last title, claimed before the play-off was implemented.

Gordon says: "We don't have anything to lose. People didn't expect us to be in [the Chase] and I'm sure they don't expect us to win it. It kind of puts us in a nice position."

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