Shaping Up

The best news is that Toyota's early promise in Australia, as suggested by Jarno Trulli's front row grid slot, was not just an illusion. At Albert Park, Trulli's performance was largely credited to the vagaries of the weather during qualifying - an assumption backed up by his rapid drop through the field during the race itself.

At Sepang, Trulli repeated the feat and teammate Ralf Schumacher was not far behind. This time, however, the Italian held off Giancarlo Fisichella's Renault with ease for a well-deserved second place. The result was validation for Trulli's growing reputation as more than just a one-lap specialist, and served to confirm that his sudden lapse in form during the second half of 2004 was almost certainly the car and not the driver.

Equally important, the Sepang performance elevates Toyota to the previously unthinkable status of genuine Championship contenders. If F1 is to thrive as a competitive formula, it needs more variety than the repetitive Ferrari-Williams-McLaren cycle of dominance that marked the mid-1980s to early 2000s.

With all the best intentions and highest ambitions in the world, that level of competition was never going to emerge from the likes of Jordan, Sauber and Minardi. That left BAR-Honda, Renault, Toyota and Jaguar as the major manufacturer challengers. Jaguar's effort may have ended fruitlessly, but BAR and Renault both showed great promise during 2004. Toyota's long-awaited graduation from the second half of the grid completes the picture, and sets up a balanced and unpredictable tussle for the remainder of the year.

For now, with a pair of pole positions and victories to their credit and the lead in both championships, Renault appear to be well settled. However, it's little more than that. Team boss Flavio Briatore's assertion that Renault are in "a different class"' smacks of hyperbolic wishful thinking. With Ferrari still waiting to debut the F2005, and McLaren and Williams sure to improve on disappointing early season pace, Renault's current dominance may be short-lived.

However, that is speculation. The one indisputable fact is that, following Malaysia, this year's WDC Championship battle is spearheaded by three drivers who have no experience at all of leading, let alone clinching, F1 Championships. Alonso, Trulli and Giancarlo Fisichella are all deserving race winners, but none of them has ever had to put together a consistent string of races under increasing late-season Championship pressure.

Trulli is reputedly fragile and Alonso has the reputation of making unforced errors, so the smart money should be on Fisichella's vast experience. Oddly, it was Fisichella who blinked first, with an ill-advised move on Mark Webber's Williams, pitching them both into retirement.

It's difficult to imagine what Fisichella felt he had to gain. Taking the dirty inside line at Sepang's final corner is a risky move even in a car that is handling brilliantly. In a Renault that had lost a barge-board and a degree of downforce, it was lunacy. No driver sacrifices positions willingly, particularly not when his teammate is leading the race. It's also a certainty that Fisichella would have had to defer to Webber's teammate Nick Heidfeld, either at the same corner or shortly thereafter. Nevertheless, even losing both positions would have still netted four points for Fisichella and kept him within two of race winner and Championship leader Alonso. With his DNF, he now faces a deficit of six points.

Webber's role in the accident was equally mystifying. By his own admission, Webber knew that Fisichella was entering the corner too hot and on the dusty line, and would never make the apex. Under those conditions, giving the Italian exactly one car's width seemed overly optimistic on Webber's part.

Even Michael Schumacher, the most pugnacious of drivers (when it suits him) has the spatial awareness to steer out of the way (right off the track if necessary) when a following driver tries an 'all or nothing' move. We've seen him do it on a couple of occasions with Juan Pablo Montoya, and the World Champion has never regretted the Championship points he's saved in the process.

It seems most likely that Webber's refusal to back down was based not on Fisichella (for Webber easily had the measure of the ailing Renault) but on the third man in the incident - his own teammate Nick Heidfeld. Earlier in the race, after a bout of wheel banging between Webber and Toyota's Ralf Schumacher, Heidfeld had challenged his team leader for track position. Webber had almost taken the pair of them off, such was his tenacity in defending the position.

In a career where he has enjoyed the luxury of obliterating marginal teammates, Webber has built a reputation as a clean and solid racer. Now that he has a teammate with the speed and the will to attack him, Webber's resolve will be tested. The accident was an unlucky break, and Webber is right to feel aggrieved that the prize of a podium finish still eludes him. But, in this instance, he was at least partly to blame. Heidfeld, by contrast, will feel satisfied that he not only rattled Webber's cage, but also earned a podium finish for his new employer before team leader and prospective franchise driver Webber.

Behind the leading three drivers, there is a wealth of experience waiting to capitalise on any slip. Red Bull's David Coulthard, Ferrari's Rubens Barrichello and McLaren's Juan Pablo Montoya have all been in the Championship hunt before. Coulthard will not be a factor when the bigger teams start improving, and Barrichello is also in a parlous position. If Ferrari (or, more accurately, Bridgestone) fail to improve, then Barrichello does not have the proven talent to win in inferior machinery. If the Ferrari does come good, then the Brazilian will inevitably be overhauled by Michael Schumacher.

That leaves Montoya as the leading candidate, although he has looked curiously restrained so far in the McLaren. It's not for lack of trying, Montoya has been locking brakes and driving off the road in his quest for points. However, the normally explosive Colombian currently looks incapable of doing anything more than grimly hanging on to whatever points position he inherits.

Of the McLaren pairing, Raikkonen has looked racier and more able to make things happen for him, even if bad luck has prevented him from scoring in either of the first two races.

Of course, Ferrari's Michael Schumacher remains the central figure in the Championship scenario. Even with only two points to his tally so far, Schumacher has overcome bigger deficits in his career - most notably in 2003, when he trailed Raikkonen by 16 points after three races.

Bridgestone will respond to the challenge by throwing hundreds of new tyre compounds, shapes and profiles at the problem, and the new Ferrari will undoubtedly be as reliable, powerful and aerodynamically efficient as expected.

For now, though, neither Schumacher nor Raikkonen is in the Championship frame. Alonso and Fisichella will want to keep it that way. With Schumacher and Raikkonen's proven ability to rack up points relentlessly when the car allows, the Renault pairing will need every advantage they can get. As the teams head to Bahrain, the season is shaping up very nicely indeed.