The 2007 Italian GP Preview

The circus heads to Autodromo Nazionale Monza for the Italian Grand Prix, home of the tifosi, who are all hoping to see Ferrari continue to close in on McLaren in the world championship. With four drivers capable of winning, there could be a tougher fight in prospect than the locals wish for.

Analysis

The Italian Grand Prix is regarded as the last remaining true, low downforce circuit: the long straights and fast corners ensuring that low drag is dominant. With sizeable kerbs, aggressive driving is a requirement, though being too aggressive will result in broken suspensions. Mistakes yield overtaking opportunities, particularly as the low downforce settings mean that grip is at a premium.

Besides efficient aerodynamics, there is a significant benefit from a powerful engine, with peak power more important than traction in this instance. Brakes will be subject to high wear, so there will be some long brake pedals late in the race - probably resulting in a couple of retirements.

As the teams tested fairly extensively here a week before the race, they should be quick to dial their cars in, so it should be little surprise to see teammates lined up in close proximity after qualifying; the race has a tendency to be processional, but good strategy will offer some progress: over-aggressive driving can promote mistakes, leading to overtaking opportunities, as the low drag set-ups offers closer running than usual through the fast corners.

Flashback

In 2006, qualifying saw Schumacher pipped to the pole by Raikkonen - to the tune of two thousands of a second. Heidfeld put in a super lap to take third away from Massa, whilst Alonso damaged his aerodynamics with a puncture, limiting him to fifth, ahead of Button. A tidy lap put Kubica in seventh, leading de la Rosa, Barrichello and Fisichella. Afterwards, Ferrari protested Alonso for impeding Massa - even though he was over 100 yards ahead, resulting in the Renault driver being demoted to tenth.

On race day, Raikkonen made a clean start in front, whilst Schumacher ceded the first corner to Heidfeld, before passing back in to the first chicane: Heidfeld also lost a place to Kubica in that shuffle, after his teammate had made a blinding start to pass Button and Massa: both of whom also pushed past Heidfeld. Alonso followed, having passed Barrichello and Fisichella, then de la Rosa in Roggia.

Alonso fought to get alongside Heidfeld coming out of Parabolica, and both braked too late going in to turn one, with the World Champion cutting across the grass to make his way in front - surprisingly not getting a penalty for his troubles. He was stuck behind Button after that, until his stop, as those behind Kubica stacked up.

The first round of stops saw Schumacher pass Raikkonen for the lead, leaving Kubica in the lead for five laps; Alonso remained stuck behind Heidfeld, but was given an easy out when the BMW-Sauber was awarded a penalty for speeding in the pit lane.

The second round of stops saw the Ferraris stop in sequence - costing Massa a crucial 1.3s more time, letting Alonso and Kubica stay ahead; indeed, Alonso passed Kubica as he exited the pitlane, looking set for an unlikely third spot, before his engine failed two laps from the end. Massa, surprised by the event, locked up and flat spotted a tyre, requiring an extra pit stop that dropped him out of the points.

Schumacher took his win, and a press release announcing his retirement was circulated, even before he made it to the podium ceremony.

Pos  Driver        Team                      Time
1.  M.Schumacher  Ferrari              (B)  1h14:51.975
2.  Raikkonen     McLaren-Mercedes     (M)  +     8.046
3.  Kubica        BMW-Sauber           (M)  +    26.414
4.  Fisichella    Renault              (M)  +    32.045
5.  Button        Honda                (M)  +    32.685
6.  Barrichello   Honda                (M)  +    42.409
7.  Trulli        Toyota               (B)  +    44.662
8.  Heidfeld      BMW-Sauber           (M)  +    45.309

Fastest race lap: Raikkonen, 1:22.559

Qualifying best: Massa, 1:21.225

Weather

Sunny weather is expected all weekend, air temperatures could reach 80 degrees every day, with track temperatures up to 110: this will make sure that the teams have to consider their cooling solutions very carefully. With little wind predicted, and almost no chance of rain, teams are expected to have relatively little trouble setting up their cars.

Strategy

There should be a fairly straight emphasis among the top ten drivers to opt for two-stop strategies as they take out fuel in the search for good grid positions, with those behind seriously considering single stopping as the best route forwards.

Conclusions

The pressure of the tifosi on Ferrari should not be underestimated - with Schumacher now gone, Massa and Raikkonen will be subject to considerable interest from these fans, who expect nothing less than dominance by their team. And perhaps they will get it, but the odds are that McLaren are going to make it very difficult: any mistakes will be punished.

Behind the leading duo, the BMW-Sauber team will be waiting to pick up the pieces. They are expecting to be very quick here, looking to capitalise on any opportunity to take another podium finish; they ought to be clear of the midfield, where Renault, Toyota and Williams should be fighting over the remaining points. The Red Bull and Honda teams might have some pace on race day, but they will struggle to get near the points unless there are an unusual number of reliability problems at the front.

A Lap of Monza with Lewis Hamilton

"Monza is a great circuit. It is very hard to overtake here as, when following another car, you just lose a lot of downforce going into most of the corners. Despite having long straights you are just keeping up because you loose so much downforce.

"It's a nice event, I had a fantastic race in GP2 last year and although it looks fairly straightforward because there are only a few corners it is, however, very complex. Getting the right set up here is key. The car needs to be as low as possible to be able to maximise the speed on the straights without losing through the corners.

"Having a stable car under braking is crucial. It is very important to brake as late as possible into all the corners, but also to come off the brakes and run across all the kerbs, like Turns One and Two. The two right-handers of the Lesmos are pretty famous and they are very quick.

"It is important to run a lot of speed through there, but it is fairly straightforward. Then you have the long straight down into Curva del Vialone, which is one of the hardest parts of the circuit. You brake and you use the kerb going in to the left, but then you are flat out through the right hand part, then it swings into the left again and it's just such a fast corner. It can be really hard to follow another car here.

"Then you come to the last corner, Parabolica, which is such a key point as you've got such a long straight afterwards, the pit straight. You really have to make sure you maximise the speed when you go through there, so its not about braking late or braking too late to gain on entry, its about just having the right balance, just getting the speed right going in and carrying it on the exit."

Team by Team

McLaren Mercedes

The Italian Grand Prix was one of the best outings for the team last year, with pole and second place from the departing Raikkonen, but it nicely illustrated the team's strength and depth that they are able to put in the time and effort to produce such a strong challenge, even during a tough season.

In Turkey, the team looked set to take third and fourth behind Ferrari, before a puncture took Hamilton back to fifth: the performance was close to their rivals, but frankly not close enough to justify getting on either of the top steps of the podium.

The recent test in Monza seems to show McLaren will be raising their game this weekend; they remain underdogs, but ought to be able to take the fight right to Ferrari and have a good shot at winning.

1. Fernando Alonso: historically, Alonso has shown some impressive pace at Monza, where he has illustrated that overtaking is very definitely possible. With the car in an unusual configuration, he will be hoping that his teammate will take longer to settle in and his experience will be an advantage, letting him at least close the gap in the drivers' championship, even if it proves impossible to take the fight to Ferrari.

2. Lewis Hamilton: with a seven to five advantage over his teammate in qualifying, Hamilton will be looking to confirm his relative dominance with another solid showing this weekend, and target a win if the Ferraris can be challenged. He could use a bit more luck this time out, though, as another puncture can only help the competition close the gap.

Objectives: Both cars on the podium.

Renault R27 © LAT

Renault

It was a rough outing for Renault in Italy last year, with Alonso damaging his aerodynamics through a puncture in qualifying, still getting up to fifth, but being demoted for inadvertently interfering with Massa's qualifying lap; he was unlucky to suffer an engine failure when set for a podium finish, though Fisichella did do enough to finish fourth.

The team showed pretty decent pace in Turkey: Kovalainen was able to chase Hamilton to sixth whilst Fisichella recovered from an early spin to climb back to ninth, showing good pace.

On the face of it, the car appears to be the fourth best on the grid, though the gap to Toyota and Williams is very small. Despite an emphasis on designing for next year, the team should be able to score points on every outing, and this weekend should be no exception.

3. Giancarlo Fisichella: having finished in the points at Monza four times in the last five years, Fisichella has to be expecting to extend that record this weekend - this is usually a strong outing. This is his home race, so a lift from the crowd is to be expected.

4. Heikki Kovalainen: with some momentum after the last race, it should be interesting to see what Kovalainen makes of Monza, with the low downforce configuration and high kerbs; the Finn has proven himself quick at new circuits all year, and benefits from a recent test this time out. Another strong performance should be on the cards.

Objectives: Both cars in the points.

Ferrari

Always a huge weekend in the Ferrari calendar, last year the tifosi witnessed Schumacher take a solid win and then announce his retirement - which is a huge act to follow.

The one-two finish in Turkey ably demonstrated that Ferrari are in excellent shape, but they have to be keeping a weather eye on McLaren this weekend, as Monza has often seen that team step up their game. Not only would the fans be disappointed if Ferrari failed to win, but it would make it even more difficult to close down the eleven points gap (FIA appeal pending) and win the constructors' championship.

Arriving back in Monza with a little momentum is no bad thing: the car was looking quick in testing and ought to be in a good shape to let the drivers compete for the race win.

5. Felipe Massa: an average race in 2006 that saw Massa finish out of the points is not the most positive indication against a teammate who demonstrated tremendous pace last season; nevertheless, Massa will be looking to illustrate a repeat of his recent performance, seeking to qualify and race at the front, hoping lead his teammate home again.

6. Kimi Raikkonen: a single mistake during qualifying in Turkey put Raikkonen back enough that he could not win the race without a mistake from Massa - which was not forthcoming. That said, whilst the Finn has perhaps not delivered quite the performance some might have expected, there is no doubt that he remains exceptionally quick and totally capable of winning this race if he makes no more mistakes.

Objectives: Pole and race win.

Jenson Button © LAT

Honda

Last year, with two engine failures on Friday for test driver Davidson, the team revised plans to run a new power unit and instead kept their drivers on the old supply - losing out not only on the extra power they offered, but set-up time on the track. In the event, they qualified and raced well, finishing with both cars in the points.

It was a pretty miserable experience last time out in Turkey, too: changing both engines after discovering problems following qualifying put the drivers to the back of the grid, though race day pace was relatively encouraging.

In principle, the team have a good baseline set-up from the recent test, but it is telling that they are expecting less from qualifying than on race day: if nothing else, it means that they will struggle to score points.

7. Jenson Button: often surprisingly quick at Monza, there is every reason for Button to expect a better performance there than in recent outings, considering the poor showings. It is unlikely to be sufficient to target a points finish without attrition at the front, but a top ten finish might be the reward for a strong performance.

8. Rubens Barrichello: winner in 2002 and 2004, Barrichello has had some phenomenal races in Monza, including an impressive run from sixteenth to fourth for Jordan in 1994. It will be interesting to see what he can pull out of the bag this time around, as a points finish would go a long way.

Objectives: Finish in the top ten.

BMW Sauber

Last year, the weekend in Italy was a highlight for the team, who had both drivers qualify strongly, despite heavy fuel loads, with Kubica finishing on the podium and Heidfeld in the points, even after a pitlane speeding penalty.

The Turkey experience was a little mixed: the team filled the third row in qualifying, but had mixed results on race day as Kubica's strategy did not pan out. Heidfeld brought home another solid result with a fourth place finish, so the team are solidly demonstrating their credentials as 'best of the rest'.

With an emphasis now on developing their new car, it remains to be seen quite what they have brought for the low drag set-up in Monza: the chassis has excellent low speed handling, and has performed ahead of the midfield all year - this might even be an opportunity to take it to the leaders, if they have dropped the ball.

9. Nick Heidfeld: for the most part a very quick racer, a repeat of the performance from last season, but without a drive-through penalty, might give Heidfeld a podium finish. Certainly, he will be disappointed with anything less than qualifying and finishing in the top six, even though his has not been a good circuit for him.

10. Robert Kubica: a year from his first podium, Kubica has to be optimistic about his chances for getting his second this weekend; the car is showing more promise than last season and he has been pushing hard.

Objectives: Both cars in the points - shooting for a podium finish.

Toyota front wing detail © LAT

Toyota

Lacking any form of speed last year, the team struggled badly in qualifying, with the result that Ralf Schumacher spent the race fighting Toro Rossos and Red Bulls. Trulli, meanwhile, made the most of a one-stop strategy to salvage a couple of points.

Turkey illustrated that Toyota have plenty of pace, given Trulli's ninth place in qualifying, but a spin on race day was disastrous: even on short fuel he was not well placed to make the passes required to climb through the field.

The weekend ahead should be interesting. The team have the resources to work on a decent one-off aero package for this race that might well see them move forwards, relative to their midfield competitors: with the gap to Williams and Renault currently very close, that would put them in contention for points.

11. Ralf Schumacher: an indifferent outing in Turkey has done little to enhance Schumacher's chances for a ride next season, so things are getting interesting for his future; but this is a circuit that has often seen him excel in the past, scoring points every time he has finished, bar last year, so there is every chance he will pull something out of the bag this weekend.

12. Jarno Trulli: with a mixed record in Italy, Trulli should be worth watching - on a good day, he will finish in the points, but on a bad one, nothing remarkable will be forthcoming. Recognised as a qualifying specialist, he should be expected to out-perform his teammate, and looking to make it into Q3.

Objectives: Get a car into Q3 and a points finish.

Red Bull Racing

It was another indifferent weekend for Red Bull in 2006, as they struggled to find pace in qualifying or the race. They fought well amongst the midfield but never threatened to get up to the points paying places.

The Turkey weekend was pretty indifferent for the team; they struggled in qualifying then showed little progress on race day, which was a positively discouraging experience. Adding insult to injury, Webber retired early on with a hydraulic failure.

Clearly, reliability is a problem, but it is not the only one: right now, the car is nowhere near the pace of the front-runners, nor looking like closing down the gap. At this point in the year, it is very easy to see effort being concentrated on next season's challenger and only limited development coming through on this chassis.

14. David Coulthard: although he won in 1997, Coulthard has an indifferent record in Italy, where he has failed to finish on seven of his thirteen outings, and even then rarely made progress from his qualifying session, so a change of fortune would be very welcome this weekend.

15. Mark Webber: this has not been a good circuit for Webber in the past, as he seems to struggle to get the car set-up to his liking, which could simply be because it is not suited to his style of driving; improved form is called for this weekend.

Objectives: Get both cars to the finish - looking for one in the top ten.

Williams nose detail © LAT

Williams

This time last year, the team were struggling with both pace and reliability; Webber had an usually horrible qualifying session, whilst Rosberg looked set to race into the points, had he not suffered a driveshaft failure.

In Turkey, Rosberg put on another excellent showing, working his way ahead of Kubica for seventh - the car is clearly capable of fighting for points, given a good enough starting point.

This weekend, like their competition, the team are going to bring out a bespoke low drag aero package: judging by the results of the last test, it should be good enough to let them continue challenging for points, but Renault and Toyota might prove tough to beat.

16. Nico Rosberg: despite spending most of the season flying under the radar, Rosberg has been quietly putting together an excellent season - so another top ten qualifying performance and points finish in Monza would go down nicely.

17. Alex Wurz: with his race day strategy compromised by poor qualifying form, Wurz is struggling to deliver; his testing feedback is helping the team keep faith, but there has to be a point where he will need to deliver results in order to keep his seat.

Objectives: Get at least one car in the points.

Toro Rosso

The Italian weekend was not kind to Toro Rosso last year - their car was clearly further form the front than usual, even if they did spend the race fighting Toyota and Red Bull for places.

A year down the line, there is little reason to expect much more: they should have much the same capability as the Red Bull senior team, but seem less able to develop the set-ups that are required to extract that performance, perhaps due to the relatively low experience levels of their drivers.

Reliability is still problematic for the team, so the punishing Monza circuit could be difficult; when the car is running, it is capable of fighting in the lower midfield, so at least there should be some competitive racing, even if points are unlikely.

18. Vitantonio Liuzzi: with the prospect of finding a new race seat looming, Liuzzi worked hard in Turkey, but is running short on time to make an impression - having an inexperienced teammate is not helping as he shows little by beating him, but looks like he is underperforming if he does not.

19. Sebastian Vettel: the team are pleased with Vettel's contribution to date - he is young, keen and motivated, which has helped pick up those around him. It does no harm that he is finishing race distances either. Another weekend of the same would help round out his experience ready for next season - with extra kudos if he can beat his teammate.

Objectives: Get both cars to the finish.

Sakon Yamamoto tests the B-Spec Spyker at Monza © LAT

Spyker

This was a pretty poor weekend for Spyker last year, as they were further off the pace than usual, and both drivers had mechanical problems on race day with only one finisher: they announced the signing of Mike Gascoyne, so it is an interesting symmetry that his B-spec version of their 2007 challenger will be made available this weekend.

Precisely what that version can do for them will be interesting to see. The team have limited resources, so it is unlikely they have been able to invest significantly in developing a bespoke low downforce solution for the weekend - consequently, any improvement they show this time out should be even more marked at a 'normal' venue.

There is still a lot to distract the team: with the designer John McQuilliam suspended, and talk of takeovers still in the air, there it seems that attention could be in the wrong place when the new chassis makes its debut. If they are really to challenge the midfield as Mike Gascoyne is predicting, then distractions are going to be a problem.

20. Sakon Yamamoto: having finished his first race for Spyker, Yamamoto needs to step up his game if he is to challenge Sutil over the coming races. The Japanese has been to Monza before, at least.

21. Adrian Sutil: with a stall in the first stop ensuring any chance of a decent result was not happening, Sutil is apparently still prone to rookie mistakes - he is quick, but consistency is problematic. A good outing with the new chassis would be very helpful at this point...

Objectives: Show an improvement with the new chassis.

Super Aguri

Last year, the team looked slightly better than usual, though still marked the back of the grid - without tyre failures and hydraulic problems, they might have pushed some of the midfield.

Qualifying in Turkey saw Davidson come within an ace of making the final session - the team have been showing some impressive form on occasion, which accounts for their points, but the raised form is usually fleeting at best. With Honda backing, they may have something in the aerodynamic bag for this event, or they will struggle badly, but their best hope for points remains attrition.

22. Takuma Sato: a little off the boil in Turkey, the Japanese will be looking for a return to form in Italy; his performances there have pretty decent so far, and there is every reason to expect the same again this weekend.

23. Anthony Davidson: after a stellar showing in qualifying two weeks ago, Davidson is showing impressive form. If he can maintain the momentum for the coming weekend, then he ought to be in a position to fight the midfield throughout the race.

Objectives: At least one car in Q2 and aim for a top ten finish.