Why things keep going wrong for Ducati

You know that thing kids do when saying how old they are? It's always 'four-and-a-half', or 'nearly seven'. To take a leaf out of their book, it has now ticked past 'five-and-a-half' years since Ducati won a MotoGP race. It is now in 'nearly six' territory, since Casey Stoner last won in red at Phillip Island in October 2010.

In an alternate world, Ducati could have won three of this year's eight races with either Andrea Iannone or Andrea Dovizioso. But in the real world, it simply has a growing list of missed opportunities, with Iannone eighth and Dovizioso 11th in the championship. On an outdated GP14.2 for the Avintia satellite outfit, Hector Barbera is the top Ducati rider in the standings, in seventh.

What has gone wrong? There's not one big thing, the factory riders' clash in Argentina aside. As ever in motorsport, it is all of the little things that need to come together that simply haven't for Ducati so far this season.

Last weekend at Assen was a prime example. Iannone topped both of Friday's practice sessions, then Dovizioso was fastest on Saturday morning, before executing the right strategy at the end of a wet qualifying to take pole - Ducati's first since Mugello last year - by seven tenths.

In discussing his own day and fortunes on the tough-to-manage Honda on Saturday afternoon, Cal Crutchlow was drawn to a comparison with the factory Ducati.

"The Ducatis are working incredibly," he said. "I tried to follow Dovi a few times this weekend and the bike is working unbelievably. No wheelie, it's so fast in the straight on the acceleration, it seems to be at least stable [in the wet], it's got grip.

"When we try and give more power to be able to accelerate we're done, we wheelie, things are out of control."

Not for the first time this year, Ducati had the fastest bike of the grand prix weekend. Gone are the days of a Ducati that was impossible for anyone other than Stoner to ride. Last year's Desmosedici was a decent package and returning test rider Stoner reckons the 2016 variant is "a little bit more compliant, a little easier to ride, to get the most out of" again, with 2-3% improvements across the board, based on his first test on it in Qatar back in March.

It is a mainstay at the top of the top speed charts thanks to its prodigious engine, even if its riders say other brands have made inroads into its advantage, but its biggest win this year looks to stem from its experience with Magneti Marelli electronics, in understanding the new-for-2016 control ECU. Honda in particular is playing catch-up in this regard.

Ducati's Sunday was always going to be a little bit compromised, based on the rear-of-grid penalty Iannone earned at Barcelona for wiping out the man who will replace him next year, Jorge Lorenzo. So, wisely, Iannone and his crew spent Saturday working on race pace, and took the chance to try the intermediate tyre in qualifying, the only rider to do so.

Sunday was too wet for the intermediate, as it turns out, a tyre that is a nice addition from Michelin this year, but with a limited - and genuinely unknown - operating window. Running it in a race would best be described as a major gamble at this stage.

But with Lorenzo running nowhere, Maverick Vinales' Suzuki seemingly allergic to the wet weather and Dani Pedrosa starting well down the order, it could have still been Ducati's afternoon.

At the end of the 11th lap of what was essentially the first half of the race, five Ducatis were in the top six places - Aspar satellite rider Yonny Hernandez (who gambled on the soft rear tyre) leading Dovizioso and Yamaha interloper Valentino Rossi, while Iannone had charged from last to fifth, running between Pramac pair Danilo Petrucci and Scott Redding.

The live odds on a Ducati victory would have been short, even with Rossi hanging out in the group and Marc Marquez not far behind. But the afternoon finished with Marc VDS Honda's Jack Miller - who started 18th and was running 10th at the end of those 11 laps - on the top step of the podium drinking champagne from his boot.

Miller's win ended another long MotoGP drought, a run of nearly 10 years between victories by a satellite team. That the top Ducati rider - Redding - finished third, sums up Ducati's season so far in many ways.

Hernandez crashed out of the lead before the red flag but should not be expected to do the heavy lifting.

Dovizioso crashed out of second, one lap before leader Rossi fell, just after the restart, admitting they were both probably pushing too hard on tyres that "didn't work".

At the same time, Petrucci's bike gave up the ghost. Iannone fell just before the restart but could rejoin and eventually finished the afternoon fifth.

Crutchlow again, this time on Sunday: "The Ducati in the wet and the dry is incredible at the minute. Their electronic system is a lot better than everyone else's, they don't have to manually ride the bike.

"You could have got a podium with the Ducati with your eyes closed today so riding a Honda is a lot more difficult at the moment. That's why I think what Jack and what Marc did was even more credible."

Assen is not a first, a Ducati really should have won in Qatar. Iannone and Dovizioso led but with a little bit more co-operation could have pulled away from Lorenzo rather than scrapping. Then Iannone fell and Lorenzo passed Dovizioso to win.

And take your pick between Le Mans and Mugello: Iannone was seriously fast at both, but fell in France then struggled to get away from the line well on home soil.

The main blip for Ducati with the machinery itself would appear to be in hot, low-grip conditions. Witness its struggles at Jerez and Barcelona, where Rossi thrived on his M1, and Ducati riders factory or otherwise could not get power to the road.

But outside of those events, and Austin where Marquez dominated, the Ducati has been a seriously fast motorbike in a competitive championship. Before Assen, Dovizioso spoke about the weekend being an "important test" for Ducati after its Barcelona woes and of the bike having a "limit".

"It's always a mix," he said, when asked if the issue was braking or elsewhere.

"It's not just one point in some tracks like last year when we had the long corners and we were struggling a little bit. In Barcelona the grip was very low and for us it's even worse, but it's very similar to last year. Also, with the tyres it's completely different. That is the point where we have to be focused.

"It's not easy to change this during the season, it's not impossible, and we are here to try to do that and prove that point."

Post-race on Sunday, Iannone described Ducati's pace through the weekend as "a little bit surprising" given its past struggles at Assen. Based on what unfolded ahead of him, Iannone might have even claimed his maiden victory last Sunday, from last, if not for his fall in the race.

But that's the way Ducati's year is going. It is like all of the ingredients have been gathered to make a pretty delicious cake, but that the raising agent in the flour doesn't kick in.

In many of these situations - OK, maybe not Assen in the rain - it is tough to see Lorenzo not having put everything together at least once, if he was somehow on the Desmosedici one year early. You don't win three world titles by accident, and the cold hard facts are that Dovizioso has one MotoGP race win to his credit, with Honda in 2009, and the enigmatic Iannone zero.

As it stands, Iannone looks the man more likely to break through, if he can pair his pace with a clean weekend. Last Thursday he was asked whether he would change his style. The response? "No." Followed by a long pause and another "no". A day later, though, he did talk about understanding his own limit more, and perhaps not pushing as hard accordingly.

Their title hopes are long gone but for both riders a win or two this year would be sweet. Iannone as a parting gift before he heads to Suzuki, Dovizioso more of a reward for his development work since 2013, and to show Lorenzo he won't have it easy next year.

They have 10 more chances to do that this year, 10 more chances to make their own little slice of MotoGP history, 10 more chances to finally close Ducati's 'opportunities missed' chapter.