Why the Ducati-Dovizioso divorce was unavoidable

When he announced his decision to leave Ducati last Saturday at MotoGP's Austrian Grand Prix, Andrea Dovizioso gave precious few details about his reasons. But amidst all the ambiguity there was an answer that certainly throws some light on the matter.

"There are various ways of racing and mine is to race for championships," Dovizioso told Autosport.

"The panorama that I see at Ducati brought me to the conclusion that it was better to go our separate ways. Racing for the sake of racing, for somebody who is used to being at the front, makes no sense."

If there was one point 'Desmodovi' was keen to stress, it was that any disagreement over financial terms had not been a factor in the break-up, a viewpoint that is in contrast to the reasoning given by Ducati in recent months for the reported hold-up in talks.

As he took on a carousel of television interviews from the Red Bull Ring, Dovizioso's manager Simone Battistella repeatedly claimed that certain conditions had not been met for them to even get onto the matter of money. The fact is that by this point there was no longer an offer on the table from Ducati, when months ago there had been.

The question now is, what happened to change the position of the suits in Borgo Panigale? The answer is wrapped up in a web of factors that we can try to unravel.

The first thing to be taken into account is the financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has forced the majority of teams to lower the fees paid to top riders. Ducati is no exception to this and new budgets coming into force to offset its recent losses will not withstand the kind of €6million package that Dovi is currently on.

So already, the gap between the figure that the rider might consider befitting of his status and that which the constructor is able to pay is already too wide to try and bridge with a compromise. Both parties decided to hold out and wait for the other to cede ground, but that never happened.

Beyond the economics, there are other points of conflict that one might not assume, especially considering that we are talking about the only rider to have taken the fight to Marc Marquez in recent seasons. In fact, one of them is actually directly affected by the Honda rider.

The question Ducati has probably been asking itself is that if beating Marquez is impossible, what point is there in continuing with a rider who will turn 35 in 2021 and costs far more money than the alternatives?

The sheer domination displayed by Marquez on his way to six of the last seven titles has clearly not gone unnoticed at Ducati. The Italian factory bosses have never been short of praise for the Spaniard, even going as far to convince themselves that beating him to the title in normal conditions is not a realistic objective.

The arm injury that will keep Marquez out of action until at least Misano on 13 September presents Dovizioso with a golden opportunity to claim the title for the first time. But it is also a rare opportunity, one that has only come around due to a unique set of circumstances.

With Marquez fit and on track, few would dare to venture that Dovi could beat him now, having been unable to do so yet. Taking everything into account, the question Ducati has probably been asking itself is that if beating Marquez is impossible, what point is there in continuing with a rider who will turn 35 in 2021 and costs far more money than the alternatives?

The conclusion it arrived at has become apparent, although if there is one thing it could be accused of, it is not giving Dovi more time to find another team. "I don't have a plan B", he said on Saturday.

There are two candidates to join Jack Miller on the factory Demosedici GP21: Miller's current team-mate at Pramac, Francesco 'Pecco' Bagnaia, and triple world champion Jorge Lorenzo. The former would justify Ducati's decision to send Dovizioso packing, although the latter would raise more doubts.

Any question marks over Dovi's viability would be multiplied in the case of Lorenzo, who would head into the 2021 season - at the age of 33 - off the back of his worst ever season with Honda and a year spent as a Yamaha test rider that has barely involved any testing.

Lorenzo is also used to riding for way more cash than Ducati can afford right now, so that would naturally create questions about his commitment and the risks he might be prepared to take.

On the other hand, there is his relationship with Ducati Corse General Manager Gigi Dall'Igna who, alongside the CEO Claudio Domenicali, will have the final say.

"The option of Lorenzo has been on the table and still might be," Dall'Igna admitted at Spielberg, whilst insisting that Bagnaia would also be a perfect fit alongside Miller.

PLUS: Why Dovizioso's MotoGP replacement shouldn't be Lorenzo

Injuries never come at a good time, but for the 23-year-old from Turin - who had just taken a big step forward in the second round at Jerez, where he was comfortably lapping in second place when his Demosedici packed in - to fracture his knee at Brno was particularly unfortunate.

The form Bagnaia was showing in his second full season on the big bikes, up until his free practice crash in the Czech Republic, was exactly what Ducati had been asking from him since he signed at the end of 2017, even before becoming Moto2 world champion in 2018.

'Pecco' is young, Italian and he has all the qualities the factory require as it plans for the new era. An era in which last weekend's winner and it's best hope of a title in 2020 will play no part.