Why Dovizioso's MotoGP replacement shouldn't be Lorenzo

Andrea Dovizioso's departure from Ducati at the end of the 2020 MotoGP season was confirmed on Saturday in an unexpected announcement, made just a day after the Italian marque said a decision was to be taken after this week's Styrian Grand Prix. And 24 hours after quitting Ducati, Dovizioso won the marque's 50th premier class race at the Red Bull Ring.

As the champagne dries, thoughts have turned to the next task at hand for Ducati - deciding who it brings in to replace its talisman of eight years.

Almost immediately after Dovizioso's manager Simone Battistella made the declaration on Italian television that his rider would not be renewing for 2021, Ducati was bombarded with questions on who could fill Dovizioso's shoes.

The name on everyone's lips was, rather unsurprisingly, three-time world champion Jorge Lorenzo - seemingly the rider market's omnipresent spectre in 2020 - who rode the Desmosedici in 2017 and 2018.

After team manager Davide Tardozzi said last month at Jerez that Yamaha test rider Lorenzo had "proposed" himself to Ducati - hardly surprising given his close relationship with general manager Gigi Dall'Igna - the Italian marque's sporting director Paolo Ciabatti stoked the fires even more last Saturday.

"We have not made a decision, really our idea was to wait for the second race [in Austria] to sit down [with Dovizioso]," Ciabatti said. "In the end, they have decided before to have their head free and that's how it is.

"We will see, we have different options and we will assess them before Misano. There is no pre-agreement with Lorenzo. His name has been on the table and may still be."

Lorenzo, at this stage, looks like being a free agent in 2021 as far as racing goes. Petronas SRT, which he had tentative links to earlier in this crazy year, has retained Franco Morbidelli and is expected to field Valentino Rossi (though that deal is yet to be formally signed). And currently there is no guarantee that Lorenzo's Yamaha test deal will continue beyond 2020.

Naturally given his ties to Dall'Igna and his proven track record - not to mention its failed attempt to get him onto a Pramac bike for 2020 last year - Ducati would consider bringing Lorenzo back. But it must resist this temptation.

Lorenzo did win three grands prix for Ducati in 2018 after a fuel tank ergonomic modification was given to him, which allowed him to ride more naturally on the bike. But a largely average tally of three podiums in 2017 and none before his Mugello success the following season wasn't enough to save his place at Ducati.

PLUS: The scars left by Lorenzo's Ducati flirtation

Ducatis now very much have Lorenzo's fingerprints on them, their slightly more corner-friendly (though not much) nature a direct result of his inputs from a decade of riding Yamahas. But that's not to say the glove will still fit

History rightfully argues that this was probably a mistake and Lorenzo may well have gone on to challenge Marc Marquez closer than Dovizioso did last year, with the latter 151 points adrift in runner-up spot with just two victories.

But that was two years ago, and two years is ancient history in motorsport. In the year between, Lorenzo went to Honda and was broken by the RC213V - physically and mentally. Without even registering a top 10 finish, Lorenzo duly retired at the end of the year.

Now, as Autosport has written numerous times, the RC213V is a bastard. It is a nasty bike that was seemingly born with a hatred of motorcycle racers and very few have been able to tame it. But Marc Marquez has been able to win six world titles on it, while Dani Pedrosa and Cal Crutchlow both managed to win races on the bike.

Admittedly, the RC213V Lorenzo rode was a particularly difficult incarnation. But it can easily be argued that a champion of his ilk should still be able to extract the maximum from a bad bike, as Marquez has done.

PLUS: 'Sometimes my best is disappointing' - Lorenzo on 2019 nightmare

Ducatis now bear Lorenzo's distinct fingerprints on them, their slightly more corner-friendly (though not much) nature a direct result of his inputs from a decade of riding Yamahas. But that's not to say the glove will still fit.

Having had little track time on the Yamaha thus far this year, and unlikely to start a MotoGP race this year with wildcards banned for 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, Ducati doesn't have much recent knowledge to justify Lorenzo's signing. Moreover, Ducati's financial concerns amid the pandemic means Lorenzo's bank balance won't be as eye-watering as he'd become accustomed to.

What has become abundantly clear over the last year is Ducati needs a fresh approach.
Whoever made the real decision about Dovizioso is a mystery right now. He made the first move, he claimed on Saturday in a bid to clear his mind amid what has so far been a tough title fight.

Ciabatti said the same thing publicly, but tensions have existed for some time between both parties. It's not unbelievable to suggest Ducati's mind was already made up to part ways and the rider simply didn't want to go through the motions.

Whatever the case, Ducati is losing a solid campaigner in Dovizioso. Winning races for Ducati since 2016, he had done much to transform its fortunes and credibility in his eight years with the marque. But since 2017, the title it so desires has slipped further away. Missing out by 37 points after taking it to the wire in 2017, he was 76 adrift in 2018 and 151 back last year.

There's no doubt Lorenzo eventually would be able to be the safe pair of hands Dovizioso has been. But that doesn't win championships in MotoGP's ultra-competitive era.

If you look at what Yamaha has done with Fabio Quartararo, what Suzuki is doing with its line-up, and KTM likewise, a clear pattern begins to emerge. All are banking on youth. So far, two of 2020's three winners are either sophomore or rookie riders, with Quartararo and KTM's Brad Binder both breaking their ducks.

Ducati too has already shown it is open to the idea of youth, in signing Pramac's Jack Miller for 2021 to replace Danilo Petrucci.

PLUS: Why Miller's Ducati move completes MotoGP's changing of the guard

This is why the only rider Ducati should be considering to replace Dovizioso is Miller's Pramac team-mate Francesco Bagnaia.

Avintia rider Johann Zarco's name has also been touted. Though contracted to Ducati, the Frenchman comes with a lot of the same baggage as Lorenzo. He quit KTM halfway through a two-year deal following a miserable run of results, bad-mouthed Avintia as Ducati tried to throw him a lifeline late last year, and simply doesn't look ready yet to lead Ducati.

Though his Brno pole and third-place was an excellent result, let's not forget that it came during a weird Czech GP weekend in which track conditions and tyres thwarted most of the usual frontrunners' charges. And that isn't to mention the fact that Zarco's signing to Avintia was largely influenced by having an apparent bigger appeal than Quartararo had back in November.

"I think the logical choice for me would be Pecco. He's been there, done the junior academy, he's a young rider. He's hungry" Jack Miller

Bagnaia, Moto2 champion in 2018, had a disappointing rookie season last year, but this was partly down to him being led astray by a strong run in pre-season testing. On the latest-spec Ducati machinery, Bagnaia stepped up to the plate in the Andalusian GP at Jerez while Ducati factory duo Dovizioso and Petrucci struggled to get their heads around the rear tyre.

Putting his GP20 onto the front row, Bagnaia was heading for second before his engine broke in the race. For 13 of the 19 laps he was still in the race, he lapped quicker than eventual second-place man Maverick Vinales.

A knee fracture at Brno came at an unfortunate moment for Bagnaia, but Miller's podium in Austria suggests the 23-year-old Italian would likely have been in the mix.

Dovizioso has theorized that Bagnaia has had less trouble with Michelin's 2020 construction tyre owing to his lack of experience on the Ducati. Assuming the tyre stays roughly the same for next year, and with the bike not making any major steps forward, that could well benefit Ducati.

"I think the logical choice for me would be Pecco," Miller said when asked who should replace Dovizioso. "He's been there, done the junior academy, he's a young rider. He's hungry.

"Unfortunately, he's injured at the moment after he had a great showing at Jerez, where unfortunately he had a mechanical [problem]. If I have to be completely honest, I think he is the most logical one for the job."

But Ducati clearly saw Bagnaia as being a rider for a long future at the marque, having signed him up in January of 2018 before he'd even won a race in Moto2.

Having so far made the step forward Ducati wanted to see from him early this season - and let's face it, the fairly small price tag he comes with, which makes him less of a risk - why promote anyone else?