Why Aprilia is a good bet for Vinales in MotoGP - but won't fix his big problem

All hopes of a quiet summer break after a punishing start to the 2021 MotoGP season were dashed on Sunday morning at the Dutch TT. The paddock – virtually and in-person – was sent into a frenzy as reports began emerging that Maverick Vinales was set to quit Yamaha at the end of a so-far troubled 2021 and make his way to Aprilia.

Yamaha was dealt a nightmare hand when the Assen poleman went on to finish second in the race, 2.7 seconds behind team-mate Fabio Quartararo. It was a result which meant Vinales absolutely had to face the world’s media – there was no hiding him nor holding his tongue.

Vinales was bombarded with questions from the assembled TV stations and in the press conference about the reports. The Aprilia move was categorically denied, but an exit from Yamaha was – in his words – “an option”. Aprilia itself said no discussions were had but would be open to speak if Vinales was free.

On Monday after the race, Yamaha dropped a press release at 8am confirming that both parties – upon request from Vinales – had agreed to end their current two-year contract a season early at the end of 2021. Aprilia finally made its move on the Monday following the Austrian GP, notable for the fact Yamaha had suspended Vinales for trying to blow up his engine in the Styrian GP - something the rider later apologised for, blaming his actions on frustration at the situation he had found himself in the race and at Yamaha in general.

The fact Vinales was leaving Yamaha was a shock in itself. In the hands of his team-mate at least, it’s currently the best bike on the 2021 grid despite it carrying a sizeable top speed disadvantage. It’s won five races in 2021, one for Vinales in Qatar and four for Quartararo in the Doha, Portuguese, Italian and Dutch GPs. Had it not been for an arm-pump issue while he was comfortably leading at Jerez and his suit bursting open late on in the Catalan GP, Quartararo may well have brought that tally to a 2020-equalling seven by the summer break.

No other manufacturer has come close to Yamaha’s tally of wins in 2021, with Ducati the next best with two courtesy of Jack Miller at Jerez and Le Mans, and one apiece for KTM and Honda – Miguel Oliveira in Barcelona for KTM and Marc Marquez heroically winning in Germany for Honda.

But that Vinales was willing to give it up for the only bike that hasn’t had a podium in 2021 in the Aprilia was a total bombshell. And it’s a move that the armchair experts on social media went to town on.

Maverick Vinales, Yamaha Factory Racing

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

Seven years into its MotoGP return and Aprilia is still considered a bit of a joke by onlookers. It hasn’t helped itself over the years with some truly underwhelming displays, not least having a bike that until this year was over the minimum weight limit stipulated in MotoGP’s rules, meaning it could not move the weight around the bike to improve the balance. But in the last couple of years, Aprilia stopped taking the piss and got its head down.

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For 2019 Aprilia brought ex-Ferrari Formula 1 sporting director Massimo Rivola in as CEO and let Romano Albesiano focus on his role as technical director. An increase in budget and resources allowed Aprilia to sign talent from Ducati and Suzuki for 2020, as well as from Ferrari and McLaren.

The result was the best bike Aleix Espargaro ever rode at Aprilia with the 2020 RS-GP – though results didn’t reflect that. The only manufacturer in 2021 allowed to fully develop its bike under MotoGP’s COVID-19 cost-saving measures courtesy of its results-based concessions, Aprilia took a major step over the winter. Its 2021 RS-GP is the first Aprilia to be under the minimum weight limit, the engine’s power delivery is smoother and its aerodynamics more refined, granting better acceleration. A chunky top speed deficit of around 8km/h to the rocket ship Ducati remains, but Aprilia is at least able to update its engine this year. On top of all that, reliability has seldom been the issue it was in 2020, when a round-one engine issue forced Aprilia to cut revs from its motor.

“I think the most important thing on a team is the mental side, because if even if you have the best bike of the championship, if someone has put in your head or you have put in your head that the bike is not working, you are not going [to go] fast" Fabio Quartararo

Of the 11 races run in 2021, Espargaro’s scorecard reads as follows:

Qatar – seventh - +5.934s from the win
Doha – 10th - +5.382s from the win
Portugal – sixth – +8.885s from the win
Spain – sixth - +5.164s from the win
France – DNF
Italy – seventh - +8.030s from the win
Catalunya – DNF
Germany – seventh - +9.371s
Netherlands – eighth - +10.346s.
Styria - DNF
Austria - 10th - +18.2s (though he finished that race on slicks tyres on a wet track)

This is in stark contrast to his results from 2020, where he only managed the top 10 twice with a ninth in Valencia and eighth in Portugal, while he never once finished less than 10 seconds from the win (he was 6.4s adrift in 12th in the Styrian GP, but that ran for just 12 laps following a red flag stoppage – before which he was 15.9s off the lead).

And in qualifying in 2021, Espargaro has failed to get into Q2 just once – in France, where he started 13th – and even managed Aprilia’s first front-row start of the modern MotoGP era in Germany when he qualified third. His average deficit to the pole time in 2021 combined across the first 10 races (Le Mans qualifying has not been factored in as track conditions were not consistent from Q1 to Q2) is 0.479s in contrast to the 0.809s deficit he had to the pole time in 2020 across the 14 rounds.

Aleix Espargaro, Aprilia Racing Team Gresini

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

Aprilia was passed over by a number of top Moto2 names and MotoGP winners in Andrea Dovizioso and Cal Crutchlow for a race ride for 2021 at the end of last year. But its turnaround this season tempted Dovizioso to sign on for a testing schedule this year, while top Moto2 talent suddenly got interested again in racing the RS-GP in 2022.

“When some Moto2 riders were saying they didn’t want to join us, I was very angry,” Espargaro said when he was probed at Assen about a name like Vinales being linked to Aprilia. “I love Aprilia, I love this project, it feels like mine and I want to prove to them that they were wrong. These riders in Moto2 who did not want to come, I think they will not be happy in the future because they lost a big opportunity and I hope that next year my team-mate will be a very strong rider because we deserve it because we work very hard, because we are not far from the top brands in the world.”

That last comment has been proven by Aprilia’s on-track form in 2021. It’s close to that elusive podium and it stands to reason a truly fast rider alongside Espargaro could bridge that final gap. Vinales clearly feels he is that rider, and the fact he was willing to walk away from an eight-million-euro payday at Yamaha speaks volumes about what he sees in the Aprilia. It’s very much a calculated risk.

It’s not without precedent either. Johann Zarco quit KTM halfway into a two-year deal in 2019 after a miserable run of form on a bike he just couldn’t get on with. When he made that decision, he had no backup plan and wasn’t hugely enthused at having to take up shop with Avintia. But Ducati convinced him the move was right and it would ultimately lead him back to a factory bike, albeit at the satellite Pramac squad, for 2021. Four podiums this year have put him firmly in championship contention, though he will have to overturn a 49-point gap to Quartararo when racing resumes at Silverstone later this month.

Inconsistent form aside, Vinales has proven to be one of the quickest riders in MotoGP when the circumstances have allowed. His victory in Qatar at the start of this year was arguably the finest ride of his career.

If Aprilia can coax that sort of performance out of him on a consistent basis, it will benefit greatly. After all, this is a rider – who alongside Espargaro – helped propel Suzuki back to race-winning status in MotoGP back in 2015-2016. And from Vinales’ point of view, he’ll be stepping into a situation where he is not expected to win, removing pressure which clearly hasn’t helped him at Yamaha through its own inconsistent moments across his five years with the team. He’s also spoken this year about how much he’s had to change his natural riding style since joining Yamaha. The Aprilia is not an M1 and will require a different touch, which may prove to benefit him.

So, Vinales goes to Aprilia with a bike that is a solid platform and into a surrounding that will help him to properly reset. This, however, is immaterial if Vinales doesn’t fix what has truly been holding him back – himself.

Maverick Vinales, Yamaha Factory Racing restart from the pitlane

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

“I think the most important thing on a team is the mental side, because if even if you have the best bike of the championship, if someone has put in your head or you have put in your head that the bike is not working, you are not going [to go] fast,” Quartararo told Autosport when asked about his team-mate’s troubles in 2021. “And even if sometimes you don’t have the best bike but you just say, ‘I’m going to win, I’m going to fight for something great’, you will do better. It’s all about believing in yourself and try to go for it. It’s something that I learned from last year and I think it’s so important.”

The Frenchman’s assessment is right on the money. Quartararo has been open about his work with a sports psychologist over the years during tough moments of his grand prix career. After his 2020 title challenge crumbled spectacularly in the closing rounds and Quartararo’s only reaction was anger, he worked with a psychologist over the winter who gave him breathing techniques to help calm himself and focus his mind when needed. The results speak for themselves. Given what Vinales did in the Styrian GP when frustration got the better of him, it's clear he really does need this type of intervention.

Yamaha has reportedly tried to get Vinales to work with a sports psychologist over the years, but he has refused. Yamaha has made numerous personnel changes to help Vinales since 2017, most notably swapping out his crew chief three times – dropping Ramon Forcada for Esteban Garcia in 2019, before bringing in Silvano Galbusera in Barcelona this year to replace Garcia. This apparently only added to the Vinales/Yamaha tensions, as Garcia is a close friend of the nine-time MotoGP race winner.

From Vinales’ point of view, he’ll be stepping into a situation where is not expected to win, removing pressure which clearly hasn’t helped him at Yamaha through its own inconsistent moments across his five years with the team

Vinales’ main gripe following his German GP nightmare, where he qualified 21st and finished the race 19th, setting his exit plans into unstoppable motion, was that Yamaha’s answer to his long-standing problem of a lack of rear grip was ‘I don’t know’. When the issue isn’t affecting your team-mate – who started second and finished third that weekend – at all and your team has moved heaven and earth to try and help you through myriad personnel changes, perhaps it really doesn’t know what to do anymore.

Yamaha’s a pretty mighty manufacturer with a big budget behind it. Should Vinales encounter the same issues at Aprilia, its response may not be as instant given the smaller budget it operates with. He needs to be ready for that.

Vinales’ move to Aprilia isn’t as brave as people may think. The team and the bike is in a strong place in 2021 and a rider of Vinales’ calibre could really make the difference in Aprilia’s quest to get to the podium on a consistent basis in MotoGP. And, more importantly, he believes it’s what he needs to find peace of mind and happiness again.

But, Vinales must confront the enemy within to have a genuine chance of successfully resetting himself and finding what he has been desperately seeking, which is to extract the maximum from himself as a rider in MotoGP every weekend.

This is the biggest challenge facing Vinales in 2022…

Maverick Vinales, Yamaha Factory Racing watching practice

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images