Who won MotoGP’s 2022 phony war?

As the fat cats with big wallets propping up MotoGP squads sip champagne and caviar as 2022 pre-season testing ends, the humble engineers behind a manufacturer’s success – and us less important journos - can begin pouring over data and caveats to make some sense of this season's first 120 hours of track time.

While last year’s pre-season phase resembled the meme of Spider Man pointing at himself, as cost-saving measures due to the COVID-19 pandemic meant all but Aprilia turned up to Qatar with basically their 2020 bikes, 2022 has brought a glimmer of normality. Those cost-saving measures were put in the bin and it was open (pre) season for manufacturers.

Any fears that a return to full-blown bike development for 2022 would perhaps spread the field a little bit were quickly cast aside, as lap times proved mind-bogglingly competitive.

In something of a perfect simile for modern day MotoGP, both the two-day Sepang test and the three-day Indonesia outing were topped by two different bikes from two different years. Gresini Racing’s Enea Bastianini put his 2021-spec Ducati to the top of the pile in Malaysia, while it was Pol Espargaro on Honda's radically overhauled 2022 RC213V who was fastest at Mandalika.

Manufacturer best laps from Mandalika test

The 2022 Honda’s difference to its 2021 predecessor is quite stark. First rolled out at the Misano test after the San Marino Grand Prix last September, it has been refined over the winter. Taking on more of a Yamaha look at the front and Ducati look at the rear, the new RC213V is Honda’s attempt to build a bike that can be ridden competitively by riders other than Marc Marquez.

And at Sepang, it appeared like it may have actually built a bike Marquez would struggle to get to grips with. With rear traction the problem of the previous few years, the 2022 RC213V is much more rear-biased to help with this. And it appears to have worked, the praise from all corners high.

Marc Marquez, working his way back to full fitness, gets to grips with the 2022 Honda MotoGP machine

Photo by: Dorna

But all of its riders did note the effect this had on the front end was different. At Sepang, having not ridden a MotoGP bike since October due to vision problems, Marquez admitted he was having to “sacrifice” his key strength of braking because he didn’t understand the front end.

PLUS: The Marquez risk Honda has taken with its 2022 MotoGP bike

Although Pol Espargaro led the Mandalika times, it was Marquez who struck the biggest chord. After Friday’s running, he said it was the first time he “felt something special” on the new Honda. He conceded he was still missing something by the end of Sunday’s running, but noted: “I was in good pace, I was riding well. When I try different set-ups, the lap time was still coming. I tried different aerodynamics and the lap time was coming. I tried different tyres, medium, soft and the lap time was coming.”

Lap times coming easier has been a common note from all Honda riders so far, with Espargaro stating at the Jerez test last November that the bike was also “safer”. The fact he had no crashes in Indonesia is testament to this.

Marquez wilfully admits Honda wouldn’t have gone into so much effort with its 2022 bike had he won more races in 2021 while still injured. The risk was in doing so Honda would still have to rely on one rider – something that backfired in 2020 when he broke his arm

Marquez wilfully admits Honda wouldn’t have gone into so much effort with its 2022 bike had he won more races in 2021 while still injured. The risk was in doing so Honda would still have to rely on one rider – something that backfired in 2020 when he broke his arm. And of course, by making such radical changes HRC risked derailing its star rider. But seemingly it’s a Catch 22 situation Honda has managed to avoid.

Analysing long runs for each manufacturer in Indonesia, Honda topped that chart also.

Manufacturer average long run pace from Indonesia

What complicates the above information is the fact that MotoGP’s official lap charts don’t list what tyre each rider was on when they did that. Reigning world champion Fabio Quartararo did his main run on a medium tyre, as did 2021 runner-up Francesco Bagnaia – but it was Ducati team-mate Jack Miller who set the manufacturer's fastest race pace, suggesting he used the soft.

Fabio Quartararo was left frustrated by the lack of top speed improvements by Yamaha with its 2022 engine

Photo by: MotoGP

Both Quartararo and Bagnaia’s choice was borne out of the likelihood Michelin will change its soft tyre for March’s Indonesian GP. But the medium proved to be a pretty bad tyre at Mandalika. Quartararo said his run was “a nightmare”, while Bagnaia conceded the medium “was not the best choice”.

What did become clear after testing is how Yamaha now appear to be in Honda’s shoes, in that it has seemingly built a bike only one rider can really hustle.

Quartararo’s title defence has so far been characterised by intense frustration. Yamaha made little gains with its new engine at the Jerez test in November, leading the world champion to state he would not sign anything for 2023 until he saw tangible progress at Sepang. That did not emerge, Yamaha still up to 10km/h down on top speed compared to the likes of Ducati, leading Quartararo to once again state that his future remains open.

“Honestly, what's disappointing is that with so much time to evolve the engine, we have nothing,” Quartararo said after the Indonesia test. "What I don't understand is this: On any track, on average you're always 10 km/h slower. Whether the straight is 100m or 1km, it's minimum 10km/h, sometimes more. That's why I'm not happy about it. They [Yamaha] know it very well even if I repeat it often.”

Refusing to race an engine he hasn’t tested, what Quartararo had at the test will be what he uses for the rest of 2022. The base of the M1 remains solid, particularly its front end. Quartararo did have issues in getting the most from fresh tyres in qualifying and is still “on the limit” in this area, but made a big improvement in the final hour in Indonesia. This is crucial, as qualifying is going to prove pivotal in his chances of fighting for wins again in 2022 given the Yamaha’s speed deficit.

PLUS: Will Yamaha's 2022 MotoGP title hopes hinge on a mindset?

For Yamaha’s other hopes, Franco Morbidelli says his riding style is still “linked” to the way he had to ride the 2019-spec bike in 2020 and for part of 2021, while Andrea Dovizioso – who said in Malaysia only Quartararo can ride the M1 fast – is still “losing too much” with his current riding style.

Given Ducati will start the year with eight bikes, Quartararo looks like he’s facing the start of his title defence as a one-man army although Ducati’s pre-season was generally under-the-radar. Bastianini’s Sepang lap aside – and really, that wasn’t hugely surprising given the Italian’s speed and the fact he’s on a fully developed 2021 bike – there have been no headline grabbing times for Ducati this pre-season.

Francesco Bagnaia and Ducati went largely under the radar during pre-season testing

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Yes, VR46’s Luca Marini did top day two of the Mandalika test, but dirty track conditions kept many from putting in real time attack efforts. The 2022 Ducati is, according to Bagnaia, about “80% ready” for Qatar. It remains the well-rounded package it was at the end of 2021, though the main niggles centre on setting up the electronics for the new engine, while Bagnaia says it has taken some time to adapt himself to the GP22 in qualifying trim.

PLUS: How Ducati's expanded roster will threaten MotoGP's balance in 2022

“It’s different because it’s two different types of engine, types of bike,” the Italian said. “You need to change something on your riding style. These days I was concentrating on doing that, and finally I understand better in the last day here how to do it. I did a lot of laps in this test to understand everything, because I did 210 laps that are a lot.

“Finally, I found out how to go quick with this bike for one lap. On the pace it’s OK, but I was struggling a bit on time attack. I’m happy that today everything was clear, a bit more easy. And I think this bike has more potential than last season’s bike, but I’ve not ridden the old bike [in these tests], so I don’t really know. But I think this bike has more potential.”

For many, Bagnaia is the title favourite coming into the year. He brushes off this notion, maintaining that Quartararo, as reigning champion, is still the main man.

Out of the blocks the 2022 Suzuki was a marked improvement, with the main comment from both Mir and Alex Rins being that the increase in power from the engine has not compromised the handling characteristics of bike

From what we’ve seen in testing, the Quartararo/Bagnaia/Marquez title fight that has been on commentators’ minds this winter is looking like a goer, given the gains Honda and Ducati have made, and how well Quartararo is riding despite his various issues. But there’s room for more to get involved in that, with there being a sense that Suzuki could well be back on top form coming into 2022.

Joan Mir’s title defence was a disaster last year. Scoring just six podiums, Mir was hampered by a GSX-RR package that did not develop much from his 2020 bike. But it was clear the Spaniard rode better than he ever did when won the championship. Out of the blocks the 2022 Suzuki was a marked improvement, with the main comment from both Mir and Alex Rins being that the increase in power from the engine has not compromised the handling characteristics of bike.

PLUS: Ranking the top 10 MotoGP riders of 2021

“The bike is a little bit faster, but the thing that impressed me more was the engine,” Rins said. “It’s not easy to put more horsepower on the engine and [the engine] has the same answer [on throttle]. Sometimes it takes time to make a good first touch of the throttle, but sincerely in Jerez, Malaysia and here [Indonesia] it was quite good.”

Suzuki also appear to have found key gains after a tough 2021

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Mir’s Mandalika test was compromised by two of his technical crew testing positive for COVID on Saturday, while a bad bout of food poisoning stopped him from riding on Sunday. Some electronics problems hindered him on Saturday too, so Mir never got the chance to do an out-and-out qualifying simulation or a proper race run.

Qualifying has always been an issue for both of Suzuki’s riders, but Mir noted on Saturday that he was able to make a good gain from the medium tyre to the soft. Typically, soft tyre gains were minimal on the Suzuki last year, and analysing things as a whole, Mir was quietly confident.

“The important thing is your feeling with the bike,” he noted. “In my case, I always focus on that and on the feeling on the bike and trying to be strong with what I have. For sure we compared [with the others], and we are not very far.”

Rins’ 10-lap race run on Sunday at an average pace of 1m32.871s was solid, while he admitted his 1m31.477s was still “a bit far”. Rins did, however, point out on Saturday that there was no sense in going all guns blazing on a time attack - given the reward on offer didn’t justify what he stood to lose.

But it looks like Suzuki has made the steps forward it needed to make in 2022. That’s proven timely as Aprilia has made another step forward with its package, praised by Quartararo, while KTM looks to be back on track after an inconsistent 2021.

Aprilia has had more test days with its race riders than the rest this pre-season, due to it still running as a concession manufacturer. That also means it will be able to develop its engine through the year and continue in-season testing.

This is something that has brought “calmness” to Maverick Vinales, who is eyeing May’s Spanish GP as the point where the former Yamaha man hopes to have fully gelled with the Aprilia – though there were flashes that he is getting stronger having ended the Mandalika test eighth overall and 0.418s off the pace.

Maverick Vinales expects to be fully in tune with Aprilia by the Spanish GP in May

Photo by: MotoGP

Team-mate Aleix Espargaro feels Aprilia is “closer than ever” to that admittedly “difficult” dream of winning a grand prix in 2022. While not a revolution, the updated RS-GP is narrower, and this has made the bike “unbelievable” in the corners. This has brought about some front chatter issues, but those weren’t present in Indonesia.

What was a concern for Espargaro was how the new Aprilia will behave in pack races if it isn’t able to stretch its legs in the corners like it can running on its own – a problem Yamaha has faced for many years.

Honda emerges from pre-season testing looking like the most sorted, while Yamaha will likely have to rely on the immense talents of Fabio Quartararo, but Ducati and Suzuki are yet to show their full hand

The Sepang test was difficult for KTM, with the rear traction issues that dogged it in 2021 still present. But Mandalika yielded a much bigger improvement, with Brad Binder – who was 0.514s off the pace in 11th – confidently stating that KTM was “in a much better shape than at the end of last year”. Both bike and rider were feeling good.

Like Suzuki, qualifying speed was an issue for KTM in 2021. Binder, who failed to exit Q1 10 times last year, noted that the new RC16 can take profit of fresh rubber now. Team-mate Miguel Oliveira also said he now understands how to do a time attack on this KTM, while adding that no one area of the bike is bad now – he just needs to be a little bit faster in general. So, who ‘won’ 2022’s pre-season testing?

Honda emerges from pre-season testing looking the most sorted, while Yamaha will likely have to rely on Quartararo's immense talents to mask the M1’s shortcomings. Ducati and Suzuki are yet to show their full hand, and KTM and Aprilia look like they can trouble the front regularly again in 2022.

We’ll find out come November how accurate that remains. But what is certain is MotoGP 2022 is shaping up to be the most competitive season yet.

Honda lead the way after the Indonesia test, but will it remain that way for the 2022 MotoGP season?

Photo by: MotoGP