The final weapon Quartararo has to save his crumbling MotoGP title hopes

That Francesco Bagnaia leads the MotoGP world championship by 14 points with two rounds to go, having been 91 adrift after the 11th round in Germany, is as much a testament to the strength of the 2022 Ducati as it is to the failings of the Yamaha.

Quartararo has faced an uphill struggle since MotoGP came back from its summer break, scoring just one podium from the last seven races and 47 points relative to Bagnaia’s 127 - which came courtesy of his three wins and three other podiums in that same period.

And none of it has been of the Frenchman’s own making. A team error in tyre pressures robbed him of points in the wet Thailand GP, while an unavoidable collision with Marc Marquez at Aragon led to a second DNF of the year. But the Yamaha’s lack of rear grip and top speed means Quartararo is having to override the bike, and this is what led to his Phillip Island disaster.

The deficiencies in the 2022 Yamaha package put his three wins this year into sharper context, while podiums at horsepower hotspots like Mugello and Red Bull Ring (both times finishing runner-up to Bagnaia) have been damage-limiting exercises that could still turn the tide in Quartararo’s favour. But on two occasions this season he has been pushed over the limit.

At Assen, he crashed trying to pass Aleix Espargaro. It was an incident that netted him a long lap penalty for Silverstone, which in turn led to a race in which he got stuck in a lowly eighth place. At Phillip Island last Sunday, having made a good launch from fifth on the grid, Quartararo outbraked himself and ran off the track at Turn 4 whilst pushing to recover from seventh.

Dropping to 22nd, Quartararo got back up to 15th before he crashed out at Turn 2 on lap 11. Coming out of Turn 1 slightly quicker than on the previous lap set him on a trajectory that would overload the front end of his M1.

“It was not the race I expected, it was a tough day, especially the first mistake in Turn 4,” Quartararo said after the race.

After slipping down the order, Quartararo's attempts at recovery ended in a crash

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

“We were quite good, then it was difficult because I was behind, trying to overtake the others. I was trying to save the tyres, but then I pushed way too much on the entry. There was not much difference in corner speed, but out of Turn 1 I was much faster [than before].”

In both races in 2022 where he crashed of his own accord, Quartararo was punished heavily by Bagnaia. At Assen – and then Silverstone as a legacy of his Holland clash with Espargaro – the Ducati rider won, while in Australia Bagnaia completed the podium in third.

Alex Rins’ supreme charge from 10th on the grid to a sensational – and potentially final – victory for Suzuki in MotoGP, and Marc Marquez’s best efforts to beat him, may well have done Quartararo a favour. But the fact remains, Bagnaia goes to Malaysia this weekend with his first match point.

The Yamaha needs long, sweeping lines through corners to make up its lap time. While the Suzuki is the same inline-four cylinder-powered bike as the M1, Quartararo notes the GSX-RR can turn much sharper on the front end than the M1

The permutations can be simply whittled down to this: if Bagnaia outscores Quartararo by 11 points, the championship will go to the Ducati rider. Any less than that, and the title battle will get a climax at the season finale in Valencia. As far as the Yamaha rider is concerned, “we only have one job, which is to win and it’s going to be the toughest job of my career”.

That difficulty is compounded by the Yamaha package Quartararo has underneath him. Not only is he having to override it, but the way in which he has to ride the bike is so different to the other machines around him that he's not merely hindered by the lack of power.

The Yamaha needs long, sweeping lines through corners to make up its lap time. While the Suzuki is a similar inline-four cylinder-powered bike to the M1, Quartararo notes the GSX-RR can turn much sharper on the front end than his own machine. Coupled with its better engine power, this is why Rins so effortlessly cut his way through the pack at Phillip Island.

“I’m riding over the limit, but for me this is not the problem,” Quartararo explained. “The problem is we ride in a different way to the others, so when I’m alone you can always see my pace is super strong. Then when we are in the race, it’s always difficult. So, I think we need to make a bike that – for the future – can be suited to win races. We need to think less about having the most corner speed possible. It’s about suiting the bike to the others.

“The Suzuki also is like us and they ride in a different way. We are missing power, of course, but also rear grip. So, this is one thing we’re going to need to work on, to turn tighter with less corner speed in some kinds of corners. For me that’s the most important, because alone we always go fast. In Austria, which is not the best track for us, we had the best pace.”

Quartararo says his Yamaha's corner speed strong suit isn't helpful in battle with other bikes

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

During the Phillip Island race, Quartararo had the ninth fastest lap. His 1m30.019s was 0.089s quicker than Bagnaia’s best lap and a further 0.021s clear of Marquez. Both of those riders ran at the front and set those times while behind others. Quartararo’s was set on lap six when he was at the back of the pack trying to recover ground after his Turn 4 off.

The Phillip Island race was characterised by extreme tyre conservation, and as such the front-running pace was slow. This kept the group big, with the top 10 split by just 5.9s – the second-closest top 10 in premier class history – while the top seven were covered by 0.884s. RNF Racing Yamaha rider Cal Crutchlow believes Quartararo would have stayed in this group without his mistake.

This weekend’s Malaysian GP at Sepang is likely to be another tough one for the Yamaha. The Kuala Lumpur track’s long straights and hard acceleration zones will make it easy fodder for the rapid Ducatis if Quartararo can’t qualify on pole and get away at the front of the race.

One advantage he will have is that the Yamaha he rode in February's Sepang test hasn’t really evolved. In theory, he should be able to plug in and go. Bagnaia’s GP22, on the other hand, is different, and he has spoken a number of times this year about how he needs longer to set up his bike than most on grand prix weekends.

Quartararo must exploit this. But the key weapon the Frenchman has now in his battle to defend his crown is his mind.

“Fabio is so strong mentally,” Crutchlow said earlier this season. “The position he is in in the championship… yes, the bike is good in many areas. But I think he is really riding – maybe not above what he’s got – but he’s riding really well. But a lot of the difference is his mindset, the confidence he has on the bike and his feeling. He’s sort of uncrackable. If something happens, he just forgets about it and moves on.”

Quartararo’s “turn the page” comment at Phillip Island is testament to this. While he cancelled all media activities after his Thailand disaster, his crew chief admitting the tyre pressure issue was his suggests Quartararo was simply looking to avoid saying anything he regretted.

The Yamaha rider has been open in recent years about how he has worked with a sports psychologist after tough moments in his career, like his early-season Moto2 nadir in 2019 when he considered whether he should even be racing, or when his 2020 title bid crumbled miserably over the final six rounds of that season.

Quartararo's experience in title fights and mental steel could be a valuable asset in the closing stages of the season

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

Using mental exercises he was taught to calm himself in tough moments, Quartararo’s charge to the 2021 title was proof of concept. And again this year, having complained too much about the Yamaha’s lack of power, Quartararo realised this was folly and moved on from that narrative to focus on the points of the bike he could exploit.

The subject of 2020 was brought up at Phillip Island, but Quartararo was steadfast in his belief that he had long since moved on from that.

“Actually, 2020 was both mental and technical,” he said. “Now, mentally, I don’t feel like I’m overthinking. So, I don’t feel it’s like 2020 on the mental side. I’m just trying to do my best. I’m overriding so much and the risk of having a mistake is really close. So, that’s what happened today.

Quartararo’s mental advantage is strengthened by the fact he has been in a situation where a MotoGP title is on the line. Bagnaia has not

“Actually, when you need to save the tyres and you miss grip and acceleration, it’s not the best. Today I made the mistake of braking too hard and going wide in Turn 4. But this is the thing we need to understand. We need more rear grip because we need to save the tyres and have the best drive possible.”

Quartararo’s mental advantage is strengthened by the fact he has been in a situation where a MotoGP title is on the line. Bagnaia has not. Continually expressing comments that he is remaining grounded, Bagnaia says he goes to Malaysia not thinking about his match point because “if I think about pressure, I will start to feel pressure”.

Bagnaia has five non-finishes in 2022, four of which were of his own making – including recently at the Japanese GP as he tried to overtake Quartararo. He acted cautiously in the last lap of the Phillip Island race when he was passed for the lead by both Rins and Marquez, and says he has learned his lessons from prior mistakes. That is a line he has spouted before – prior to Japan. Given the errors he has already made this year, it’s difficult to take these statements at face value.

Quartararo’s time as world champion may last just six further days from now. He is on the back foot and the Yamaha is not up to the job in this fight. But, as he has shown so often this year already, he is more than equipped to battle on.

Quartararo now trails Bagnaia in the points, but isn't going to give up with two rounds to go

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images