The talent-outweighing ambition that will kill Ducati’s 2022 MotoGP title hopes

Last weekend’s Japanese Grand Prix at Motegi marked MotoGP’s first visit to the Land of the Rising Sun since 2019. It also coincided with the 15th anniversary of Ducati’s sole MotoGP title win, when Casey Stoner sealed his first championship victory at the same track in 2007.

While Jack Miller dominated proceedings at Motegi for his fourth – and arguably best – win in the premier class, celebrations at Ducati were muted. As the Australian eased across the finishing line, his team-mate Francesco Bagnaia was trudging through the gravel trap at Turn 3 having crashed out for a fifth time in 2022.

Bagnaia’s speed in MotoGP is unquestionable. When everything is right, the Italian is arguably Ducati’s most complete rider since Stoner. From the Dutch GP through to the Aragon GP, he won four races on the spin – something no Ducati rider had done before – and only narrowly missed a fifth at Aragon when he was pipped by Gresini Ducati’s Enea Bastianini.

That run allowed him to reduce a 91-point deficit to Yamaha’s Fabio Quartararo to a gap of just 10, as the latter has reached the absolute limits of what's possible on the underpowered 2022 M1.

Given how well Quartararo has been riding in 2022, making only one real mistake – when he crashed into Aleix Espargaro at Assen, which led to a long lap penalty and consequent struggles at Silverstone – Bagnaia’s mistakes in the first half of the season have been costly.

Bagnaia was ahead of Quartararo in the season-opening Qatar GP when he crashed trying to pass Pramac’s Jorge Martin. A minimum of second place was on the cards in France when he crashed battling Bastianini. Then, in Germany, he made an unforced error sitting in second behind a faster Quartararo. The damage done by his innocent involvement in the Takaaki Nakagami-instigated Turn 1 chaos at Barcelona would have been far less without his own mistakes.

Bagnaia's crash in the Japanese GP was his fifth DNF of the season so far

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

Part of Bagnaia's early-season struggles were down to him not being able to fully get comfortable with the front end of the 2022 Ducati. But as such, exercising caution would have been even more pertinent as he slowly built up his understanding of the GP22.

Bagnaia has a history of unforced errors while in high-pressure situations. His first victory in MotoGP slipped from his grasp in 2020 at Misano when he fell leading Maverick Vinales. His remote 2021 title hopes were ended at the same venue when he tumbled out of the lead in the latter stages of the Emilia Romagna GP, having elected to run the hard front tyre when track conditions were too cold for it.

The way he won his first two races – a battle with Marc Marquez at Aragon in 2021 and then fending off a faster Quartararo at the San Marino GP, as well as this year's San Marino win against Bastianini – suggest Bagnaia is capable of absorbing pressure. But he's never been in such a good position to win the MotoGP title before. Quartararo has, and thus knows exactly what he needs to do on these occasions. The other title contender, Aprilia’s Aleix Espargaro, was unfancied pre-season and has nothing to lose as a result. Bagnaia, however, was signed to a Ducati contract before he’d even won the Moto2 class in 2018 and is in his second year in the factory Ducati squad. Expectations are immense.

"When I’m racing I’m always thinking about big things and my ambition was to overtake Fabio, and then try to be close to Maverick if he did a mistake. So, I was ambitious, it’s the only thing I can do to try to win the championship" Francesco Bagnaia

After the Aragon GP, he was asked why he doesn’t make mistakes anymore after the dramas of the first half of the season. His reply was: “I changed a bit that thing from the start of the season because now when I’m leading I just now think about the more important things, that are being perfect on my bike, doing the perfect things.

“So, thinking on my side and I don’t think the rider behind me is closing the gap, because on different occasions this year I was seeing my gap dropping and this is the worst situation you can have. But I was just focused on me, focused on adapting myself to the situation and I think this is helping me to pass the race better, to entertain me with the more important things in the race.”

Motegi was a generally difficult weekend for Bagnaia. The logistical difficulties in getting the paddock from Aragon to Japan in just a few days – and the potential for disruption this could cause, after what happened in Argentina earlier this year – meant Friday was altered to have just one 75-minute practice. Bagnaia has repeatedly stated that he needs more time than most with the 2022 Ducati to get it working properly from track to track.

Ducati's management need to rally around Bagnaia after his latest mistake

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

Ending Friday second overall put him on the right path. But a mystifying lack of wet weather pace in qualifying left him 12th on the grid, and this set up a nightmare race. Stuck in the pack from the off, his front tyre pressures went up and left him vulnerable to attack from Bastianini – who put in a hard move to take 10th on lap nine of 24.

The tyre did eventually come back to Bagnaia and he was able to apply pressure on Quartararo – once again left stuck by his Yamaha’s lack of power – in the latter stages. While Bagnaia was struggling for traction, it should have been an easy position to take given the speed of the Ducati relative to the Yamaha. Attempting a pass into Turn 3 on the last lap ended up in a crash, however.

PLUS: The signs Quartararo’s 2022 MotoGP title is slipping away from him

Ten points behind Quartararo coming to Japan, Bagnaia is now 18 points adrift – and only holds second because Espargaro scored nothing after he was forced to switch motorcycles on the sighting lap due to a mapping issue. While 18 points isn’t a massive gulf with 100 still on offer in the final four races, the fact the mistake happened in the first place contradicts Bagnaia’s comments from Aragon.

He would still have had several opportunities to pass Quartararo over the final lap, and indeed could have pressured the Yamaha rider into a mistake. Bagnaia was right to say one point could make the difference in the championship, but losing eight for the sake of one on a day when nothing was really going for him counteracts this.

“One point can make the difference, so I was trying to do it,” Bagnaia said of his crash. “I was too ambitious, because finishing behind Fabio, or waiting to have a better opportunity to make a safer move was for sure better, thinking after the race. But in that moment, when I’m racing I’m always thinking about big things and my ambition was to overtake Fabio, and then try to be close to Maverick if he did a mistake. So, I was ambitious, it’s the only thing I can do to try to win the championship. So, the mistake was the crash for sure.”

Quartararo's MotoGP world championship lead over Bagnaia stands at 18 points with four races to go

Photo by: Dorna

For a rider who has said repeatedly that he will not allow thoughts of the championship to dominate his mind, “thinking about big things” once again screams of contradiction. At the very least, Bagnaia is aware that changing his approach right now in terms of how he pushes in races isn’t correct.

“For sure this weekend was quite strange for all what happened,” the Ducati rider added. “This morning I was competitive [in warm-up], so what happened during the race was a bit strange. But we know starting from behind is difficult for your pace. So, next race I will try to do my work as always, try to be competitive. I will not be more aggressive, I don’t need to be more aggressive. I just need to do what I did in Aragon or Misano, keep my pace, hammer down and try to gain points.”

No rider in premier class history has won the championship having registered five DNFs in a season. Bagnaia could well break this trend, but he has shown too often that his judgement of situations is lacking and that he hasn’t learned as much from his past errors as he says he has.

Ducati simply cannot allow any pride to stand in the way of its ultimate prize now – not least when its main hope has a long-standing weakness Quartararo and Yamaha can exploit

Ducati has a good management structure to help a rider, so it must rally around him now to keep his mind focused. And it must now seriously start utilising its vast army to assist in races.

Bagnaia says he doesn’t need team orders to win the championship. But his battle with Bastianini over 10th in Japan was unnecessary. Yes, Bastianini still has a shot at the title at 49 points adrift – but Ducati's eggs have to be put into one basket now. And it’s not his.

PLUS: The unique advantage Ducati must now use to win the 2022 MotoGP title

Someone like VR46’s Luca Marini could have been told that if he found himself ahead of Quartararo at Motegi – which he did, taking the chequered flag sixth after an early battle with the Yamaha rider – to slow up his pace and block the Frenchman from advancing to make Bagnaia’s job of overtaking easier. Then get any Ducati rider who may be closely ahead to move over.

It's not pretty, but Ducati simply cannot allow any pride to stand in the way of its ultimate prize now – not least when its main hope has a long-standing weakness Quartararo and Yamaha can exploit over the final four races.

Can Bagnaia refocus to take the fight to Quartararo next time out in Thailand?

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images