Why Yamaha won't have a Hulkenberg moment with Lorenzo

COVID-19 has hung over the world like a shroud of misery this year, and no matter how many precautions are taken, MotoGP sadly isn't shielded from it casting its gaze upon the paddock. On Thursday, having felt unwell at home in Italy, nine-time grand prix world champion Valentino Rossi became the first premier class rider to test positive for the virus and will miss this weekend's Aragon Grand Prix.

Rossi admitted on his social media accounts on Thursday evening that next weekend's Teruel GP at Aragon is likely a "no go" for him. This comes a week after six Yamaha team members were forced to self-isolate in Andorra after one member was hit by the virus, while Moto2 rider Jorge Martin was forced out of the Misano double-header last month after testing positive.

Predictably, the shock of Rossi's positive COVID-19 test wasn't allowed to settle in before social media was awash with speculation that Yamaha could call on test rider Jorge Lorenzo to make his MotoGP comeback.

Lorenzo returned to Yamaha in the winter as its official test rider following his retirement from racing at the end of last year, and was due to make a wildcard appearance at the Catalan GP before the original calendar was nerfed by the pandemic.

With wildcards now banned in a bid to keep paddock numbers down - as part of Dorna Sports' many protocols to quell the spread of COVID-19 - Lorenzo's hopes of starting a race on the Yamaha for the first time since 2016 rested on the misfortune of the full-time M1 riders.

As per the official FIM sporting regulations: "Teams must make every reasonable effort to provide a qualified substitute rider to fulfil their entry obligations within 10 days of withdrawal."

Yamaha team manager Massimo Meregalli admitted on Friday morning that it was unlikely the Japanese marque would look to replace Rossi for the second Aragon round, but a final decision is expected this weekend. Lorenzo confirmed to Autosport on Thursday - at the time - Yamaha had not made any contact about a possible substitute ride.

The replies on Autosport's Twitter post of the Rossi news were surprisingly not exactly filled with sympathy, with most taking the opportunity to post some Nico Hulkenberg jokes.

Hulkenberg has been called into action three times this season in Formula 1 by Racing Point, first to fill in for Sergio Perez at both Silverstone races in July when the Mexican was ruled out by COVID-19. Hulkenberg then made a third appearance in last weekend's Eifel GP after Lance Stroll was forced to sit out the event owing to a flu-like illness.

Lorenzo has been staying in shape, as his lively Instagram feed confirms, but one can't imagine to the same extent Hulkenberg will have been this year because the latter still has desires on returning to F1 in 2021

The highly-rated German was impressive given his complete lack of testing of current F1 machinery following his ousting from Renault at the end of last year. Hulkenberg managed a third in qualifying for the 70th Anniversary GP before finishing seventh, and was a fine eighth from the back of the grid in last week's Nurburgring race - having not sat in the car until qualifying. As a result, he's now a surprise contender for a potential Red Bull move for 2021.

PLUS: Why Hulkenberg's Red Bull chance is out of his hands

With the best will in the world, Lorenzo 'doing a Hulkenberg' on the Yamaha is extremely unlikely.

Yamaha has two avenues to justify not fielding a replacement for Rossi next week. The first being the fact that 10 days won't have passed between the entry lists for both Aragon races being published. But, more significantly, Yamaha can very easily argue to Dorna that Lorenzo is not a "suitable" substitute.

Yamaha putting Lorenzo on the M1 for a wildcard originally would have been a low-risk, positive PR and testing exercise for Lorenzo. It wouldn't expect anything from him other than to try some parts, learn about the bike under race conditions and apply that knowledge to future tests. Anything more is just a bonus. It's worth noting as well that Lorenzo would have likely had some more testing mileage under his belt ahead of that wildcard outing.

But, in reality, he has only had three-and-a-bit days on the M1 this year, and all of them have been on the 2019 M1. Lorenzo made an appearance on one day of the Sepang shakedown in February and on the final day of the official Sepang test. His next outing came last week in Portugal during the two-day track familiarisation sessions.

At the Sepang test, Lorenzo was 1.3 seconds off the best pace set by Fabio Quartararo on the Petronas SRT M1. Given Lorenzo's experience of a MotoGP bike at that point was still recent, and the fact nobody was really pushing at Sepang, that 1.3s is deceptive in the grand scheme of things.

At the Algarve last week, the best time of the test was set by Aprilia's Aleix Espargaro with a 1m40.1s. Lorenzo's best lap from the two days of running was a 1m44.1s. While one can argue the pace at Algarve wasn't entirely representative as the test was more about dialling in gearing and electronic settings, that four-second gulf isn't likely to simply be evaporated if Yamaha was to put him on the 2020 M1 - a bike he hasn't ridden yet.

Some of this is down to Yamaha's lack of private testing this year. Although it operates a global test team, it's based out of Japan. And, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, all of Yamaha's test plans were scuppered. The other Japanese marques - Suzuki and Honda - have European-based test teams. Yamaha did in 2019, helmed by former Tech3 rider Jonas Folger, run alongside its Japanese team headed by Katsuyuki Nakasuga and Kohta Nozane. But it was scrapped to combine the two outfits for 2020.

But largely, the problem lies with Lorenzo. For him, racing was never the passion it is for the likes of Rossi and Marc Marquez. Lorenzo always treated it more as a job, and it was the winning he really loved. Retired life has him doing more messing about in his new Lamborghini than on dirt bikes or street bikes on trackdays, keeping himself sharp for his crucial role as Yamaha's tester.

This is something Rossi noted in France: "Jorge in Malaysia in February was not so bad, because he did a good job and was strong with the M1. He was close to the normal riders. But after he said he never go with the bike until Portimao. So, I think Jorge is a great opportunity for Yamaha because he has big potential.

"But, if you want to be the test rider he needs to train using motorcycles, because if you stay eight months without touching a motorcycle it's difficult to bring a MotoGP bike to the limit. So, if Jorge wants to continue he needs to test and to ride some other type of motorcycle during the season."

Rossi's point about Lorenzo's lack of bike time making it hard to push a MotoGP bike to the limit would be laid bare at Aragon

Lorenzo has been staying in shape, as his lively Instagram feed confirms, but one can't imagine to the same extent Hulkenberg will have been this year because the latter still has desires on returning to F1 in 2021. Lorenzo admitted to Autosport he came close to agreeing a deal with Ducati, but grew colder to the idea as talks progressed. That gives a good indication as to the stark difference in motivation between the pair.

Rossi's point about Lorenzo's lack of bike time making it hard to push a MotoGP bike to the limit would be laid bare at Aragon. FP1 was delayed by 35 minutes because it was too cold and, when it did get going, there were five crashes due to cold front tyres. The problem is, to keep the heat in the tyres one has to keep pushing, but doing so in the conditions increases the risk of crashing significantly. Lorenzo, then, is more than likely going to run up a repair bill while running at the back of the field.

Seven riders have won races this year and there have been a total of 15 podium finishers spread across Yamaha, Ducati, KTM, Suzuki and Honda riders, with everyone except Tito Rabat and Bradley Smith visiting the top 10 this season.

But the likelihood of Lorenzo even getting to the points is pretty low. And given he hasn't ridden the 2020 M1, and barely done any meaningful running on the 2019 bike, it's not as if he will provide much in the way of use as a test rider to Yamaha.

Yamaha's Meregalli hasn't ruled out the possibility of Lorenzo jumping on the M1 for Valencia should Rossi be unable to race there next month. But the reality is, Lorenzo still won't be the "suitable" candidate the rules stipulate...