How a confusing Catalan GP Friday sums up MotoGP 2020

The final part of MotoGP's latest triple-header takes place at the Catalunya circuit near Barcelona, and if the 2020 season hasn't been hard enough to read into, Friday at the Catalan Grand Prix looks the most complicated so far.

The day was dictated by a lack of grip on track - something more noticeable for the riders given the seven days they spent at the newly-resurfaced Misano. KTM's Pol Espargaro described conditions, particularly when the asphalt was at its greenest in FP1, as like "rain conditions in the dry". This also seemingly created a big drop-off in grip with Michelin's tyres.

Strong winds all day also complicated matters, cooling tyres and causing a number of crashes - with Suzuki's Joan Mir, Friday pacesetter Franco Morbidelli on the Petronas SRT Yamaha, Avintia's Johann Zarco, Tech3's Iker Lecuona (twice) and Honda's Stefan Bradl all suffering front-end tumbles.

In effect, it was the nightmare scenario for riders: you needed to push to keep the heat in the tyres, but pushing hard was difficult because of the conditions - a unique scenario at Catalunya given this race usually runs in June.

As not everyone put in time attacks on soft rubber, and conditions weren't sufficiently representative for meaningful race running, a pecking order is much harder than normal to determine after Friday's 90 minutes of running. But there are still some signs of potential favourites emerging.

Ahead of this weekend's round, many were quick to point towards KTM as ones to watch. The low-grip conditions at Catalunya are similar to those seen at Brno for the Czech Grand Prix in August - a race KTM's Brad Binder emphatically won, while team-mate Pol Espargaro was on for second at least before tangling with Zarco.

But lest we forget the rider who led half of that Czech race, who qualified on the front row, who had the strongest pace across the practices, and who ultimately finished second - a certain Morbidelli, now a MotoGP winner too after his breakthrough triumph in the San Marino GP.

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"It was a good Friday for us," said Morbidelli, whose 1m39.789s benchmark was 0.109s quicker than Zarco. "We started very well, I felt good this morning and this afternoon we were able with Ramon [Forcada, crew chief] to improve the setting.

"I made a small crash and I couldn't make many more laps with the medium tyre, which I wished I would. But anyway I was able to get back to the pit box and go for the time attack and it was good enough to be on top."

Morbidelli's Turn 10 spill in FP2 was a result of him braking 25m later than he had done, but his run on the medium rear tyre (which he used to win the San Marino GP) was solid. Of the five laps he completed, he managed three successive laps at 1m40.672s, 1m40.573s and 1m40.718s.

Compared to Yamaha counterpart Maverick Vinales, who took until lap six of his first eight-lap run on the same tyre to dip into the 1m40s, that's quite encouraging. What offered even more encouragement was the Yamaha's deficit on the one-kilometre long front straight wasn't as much of a gut punch as it has been.

Both Morbidelli and Vinales were 4.8km/h slower than the fastest Ducati through the speed trap, which is quite a significant jump from the 10km/h or so they usually lose. While this will still pose problems in the race, which Vinales highlighted by noting the goal remains to do as he did at Misano and lead from the first lap, the significance of this deficit was not lost on Morbidelli.

"It looks like the layout of the track and the layout of last corner doesn't affect too much top speed, and this is maybe the best news today," he said.

The long right-hander at Turn 14 which leads onto the main straight plays into a key Yamaha strength and masks a key weakness. The third-gear bend suits bikes which can carry great corner speed - which the M1 is famed for - and the lack of accelerating means the Yamaha can punch out of the turn a little more effectively. The greater rear grip offered by the 2020 Michelin tyre construction will be of help here too.

Morbidelli remains grounded about his chances of repeating (and indeed improving on) his Brno form.

"I think it's still early to say if it's a little bit like Brno, because it's just Friday," he said. "But I felt strong today, so this is clear. We have to wait a little bit more to say if I am strong as much as Brno."

Vinales continued with his new approach in working straight away with a full fuel tank in practice to understand his Yamaha in race trim. This will go some way to explaining his discrepancy in his long run pace relative to Morbidelli, with a 1m41.5s set on a 15-lap old medium an encouraging indicator of the Spaniard's true form.

"The bike is working fantastic, we are on the point," he said, having ended Friday fourth overall. "I feel quite good on the bike honestly. For tomorrow we have some stuff to test, but nothing amazing.

"But for sure we are on the point and this afternoon I go with the medium front, which is not the best tyre for us. But the rhythm was there, this is the most important thing.
"I'm working all the time on race set-up in every practice because I need to understand also the riding style, it changes quite a lot. So we need to understand how to do it and straight away we are fast, and this is the most important thing."

Fabio Quartararo's pace on the other Petronas SRT Yamaha was also quite encouraging, a 1m41.4s on a 15-lap old medium in FP2. As was Mir on the Suzuki, who started FP2 on the medium rubber he finished FP1 on.

The Suzuki rider is long overdue a win, based on his run since the Austrian GP and his pace was comparable to the Yamahas at mid 1m41s with 15 laps on the tyre. Where Mir differed from Vinales, Quartararo and Morbidelli is that he put 20 flying laps on that tyre - his pace competitive at low 1m42s.

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The GSX-RR is just as suited to the Catalunya circuit as the Yamaha with its sweet-handling chassis. This, combined with his fact-finding mission FP2 have given him reason to be confident.

"It is difficult to know the rhythm," Mir said. "Yamaha has not done any long runs. I have stretched the medium rubber and I have seen how far it goes. They made laps with the freshest rubber. I see them strong, surely they will be difficult to beat, but I do not see it at all impossible."

Ducati is yet to show its hand. Although Johann Zarco was second overall on his Avintia GP19, those on the GP20 - Jack Miller, Francesco Bagnaia, Danilo Petrucci and Andrea Dovizioso - didn't use the soft tyre for a late time attack in FP2, as it was immediately clear to them that this was the best compound for the Ducati. And with conditions as they were, wasting them on fruitless qualifying simulations made little sense.

KTM also struggled with the conditions. Espargaro felt like he was "just cruising" on his RC16 as he couldn't understand the limit of grip, while Binder's Friday was largely one spent finding his way around the Catalunya circuit on the MotoGP bike. But a 1m40.008s at the end of FP2 suggested he's getting the hang of it, and a repeat of his Brno heroics isn't out of the question if he can find a good path to follow on Saturday in terms of race pace.

At the midway point in the 2020 season, no clear form guide exists. And after Friday at Catalunya, anyone hoping for one emerging after the eighth round of the campaign looks set to be sorely disappointed.