Why a MotoGP rookie's Czech GP win wasn't a total shock

Few would have predicted that just three races into his MotoGP career at the Czech Grand Prix, KTM factory rider Brad Binder (who turns 25 on Tuesday) would have stood atop the podium as a race winner. Not least when you consider he ended his first proper test on the RC16 at Valencia last November some 2.1 seconds off the pace in last.

The bike he is riding now has made a significant step forward from the 2019 version on which he began his MotoGP acclimatisation, but to make such an impact so early on amid arguably the most competitive premier class grid ever assembled would have been completely unrealistic to expect.

And yet, he demonstrated in his debut race in the Spanish Grand Prix that he could already be a podium threat. Thus, the first ever win for KTM in MotoGP's premier class scored by Binder last Sunday at Brno - while certainly not the expected result five minutes before lights out - did not come out of the blue.

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Binder's Spanish GP was curtailed by on off on lap seven at the Pons corner, which dropped him to the back of the field. At the point he made that error, he was only 29.8s behind eventual winner Fabio Quartararo.

Come the chequered flag, he was 29.6s behind when he crossed the line in 13th. It's impossible to say categorically Binder would have finished on the podium, given the immense temperatures at Jerez meant those in pack races suffered tremendously with front tyre pressures shooting through the roof.

But in the last 10 laps of that race, eight of his efforts were quicker than those of second-placed Maverick Vinales. If we look at Binder's lap times relative to team-mate Pol Espargaro, who was just a second from the podium (and who was just six tenths ahead of him before his off), the South African rookie was quicker in 15 of the 25 tours compared to his vastly experienced stablemate.

In the Andalusian GP the following week at Jerez, Binder was forced into another recovery ride after clattering into fellow KTM rider Miguel Oliveira's Tech3 machine at Turn 1 on the opening lap. Before he crashed out on lap 13, he was quicker on nine of the first 12 laps than Espargaro. And at Brno, before Espargaro collided with Johann Zarco on lap 10, the Spaniard only bettered Binder's pace on three occasions.

The Czech GP was a weird race. Marc Marquez was absent, the track conditions were pretty woeful on the 12-year-old surface and the tyres were behaving strangely for so many - with the likes of Quartararo, Vinales, Andrea Dovizioso and Jack Miller struggling for grip. But grip was a problem for everyone, with Binder noting: "At one point Franco [Morbidelli] started to really struggle with the rear tyre and mine still felt quite good, so I sat behind him for a lap and decided to push on and see what I can do.

"In Jerez [Binder] was pretty strong, and the other rider[s] were lucky that he crashed because he could have been on the podium I think" Johann Zarco

"From then on, I think it was the most crazy 10 laps of my life. I did everything as soft and as calm as possible because the rear tyre was quite dead. As soon as I tried to do anything aggressive, I had some crazy pumping. So, it was incredible, unbelievable."

Binder did the job supremely, dominating by 5.2s at the chequered flag to become the first rookie since Marquez to win a race - and it's worth noting, since the Honda rider's advantage at Austin in 2013 was just 1.5s.

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And while the RC16 is a genuinely competitive bike in MotoGP now, several riders believe one of the biggest reasons for this is Binder. These include Brno poleman Zarco, whose acrimonious departure from the KTM factory team last year created the vacancy for Binder to step into.

"He's doing the job that I was not able to do, they made the big step during the winter with the bike," said Zarco. "But he's coming with a fresh mind and this is helping much more to do the right job on the KTM and he's proving already now in his third race. In Jerez he was pretty strong, and the other rider[s] were lucky that he crashed because he could have been on the podium I think."

LCR's Cal Crutchlow concurred, adding: "Now it seems they've [KTM] made a massive step, probably since the arrival of Dani [Pedrosa as test rider] as well. We know Dani was a very special guy, but he knew what he was doing.

"I believe that's been influential in building their bike to a race winner, which it is now. And now KTM has a rider that's a fantastic rider, so I believe that's the main reason why as well. For a rookie to come in and win straight away, Fabio didn't do it last year and Brad's gone and done it this year on a bike that they say needs more development."

Zarco also pointed out that Binder showed last year in Moto2 that "he was the one that when there was big problems, [he could] go over the problems and win races". Indeed, Binder was one of the few riders to coax podiums out of the underpowered Mahindra in Moto3 when rode the bike in 2014, and he was just three points away from the Moto2 title last year when the chassis proved to be one of the weakest on the grid in the first half of the season - Binder putting the bike on the podium in nine of the last 12 races, which included five wins.

At the start of the Brno weekend, Binder admitted he was in a "different boat" on Friday with the set-up of the bike compared to what he rode to victory on Sunday. However, a key trait in Binder's arsenal came to the fore - his beyond-his-years wisdom.

"I could barely touch a throttle and I felt like I was going to get flicked up in the air [on Friday]," Binder said when asked by Autosport why his bike was so good in the race. "So on Friday night the guys did their homework and before I left the track I remember speaking to my crew chief and the boss Mike [Leitner] and said 'don't stress out, tomorrow they will sort it out'. And they did."

That calmness when the bike isn't going the way it should was something he showed back at the first Jerez race when he couldn't get the bike to stop properly, and it has carried over into his riding.

"To be honest, I did try to hold back a lot at the beginning," he added post-race. "I could have smashed the gas on a lot earlier with the first tyre but I really had to keep telling myself to be calm and try not to be so aggressive on the throttle, also in corner entry."

KTM did come to Brno with data of the circuit courtesy of Pedrosa's private test last month at the circuit, and both he and Espargaro cut laps across two days at Red Bull Ring in June - venue of the next two grands prix.

The RC16 is a bike that can seemingly put its power down incredibly well, KTM riders stand as good a chance as it has done at the first three races in this increasingly unpredictable 2020 season going forward. With that said, if Binder continues progressing as he currently is, podiums for KTM's golden child may just become the only predictable thing about this season...