Why KTM's latest moves risk derailing its future MotoGP stars

In a MotoGP silly season that will surely go down as one of the maddest, the latest move has been completed. While it was reported by Autosport last week that outgoing Ducati rider Danilo Petrucci had signed a deal to join KTM for 2021 after a visit to the factory in Austria with his manager, confirmation of this on Thursday wasn't exactly a surprise.

What was a surprise was that the deal Petrucci has signed will see him placed at the satellite Tech3 squad alongside Iker Lecuona instead of the works outfit, with current Tech3 rider Miguel Oliveira stepping up to the factory team alongside rookie Brad Binder.

The past month or so has been a particularly turbulent time for KTM, with the marque losing its biggest asset in Pol Espargaro to Honda and set to lose one of its most promising future stars in Jorge Martin to Ducati next year too.

PLUS: The KTM exodus that suggests a management flaw

With options limited to secure a big name to replace Espargaro, Petrucci seemed like a solid option for KTM to align itself behind as team leader.

Rising from the doldrums of CRT machinery in 2012 through a once-in-a-lifetime shot to step up to Pramac Ducati in 2015, before being selected as Jorge Lorenzo's works Ducati replacement last year, Petrucci has a wealth of valuable experience.

He's also a MotoGP race winner, and having done so in all-square conditions against the king of the current generation Marc Marquez in a thrilling Mugello battle, making the 29-year-old not a bad option as Espargaro's replacement.

Yes, Petrucci did have a wild dip in form in the second half of last year as he struggled to get the Desmosedici set up around his 181cm, 80kg frame and failed to crack the top eight in the final seven races. And being the largest rider on the grid would pose significant hurdles in terms of improving KTM's RC16 - not least because the former smallest rider on the grid, Dani Pedrosa, has been developing the current bike.

PLUS: Why Ducati's latest divorce was inevitable

All of that aside, Petrucci playing the role of KTM's spearhead was a solid recovery for the Austrian manufacturer. However, his placement at Tech3 - albeit with full factory support - to favour youth suggests KTM doesn't see him in quite the same light.

Petrucci at Tech3 is a bit of a glitch in the system as he's anything but a junior rider, but that isn't the biggest problem with KTM's decision

KTM has forever gushed about the fact it has (or, at least, had prior to this year) a full progression system for riders stretching all the way from the grand prix feeder category Red Bull Rookies Cup, through Moto3, Moto2 and into MotoGP with satellite and factory set-ups. That ladder has been broken somewhat by KTM withdrawing its chassis from Moto2 this year (though bizarrely still holding a presence with the Red Bull KTM Ajo squad, which uses Kalex chassis).

The Tech3 squad's switch from Yamaha after 20 years to become a KTM customer last season effectively turned the outfit into a KTM junior team, with Oliveira making his debut alongside Malaysian Hafizh Syahrin. Lecuona, a podium finisher last year in Moto2 on the American Racing Team KTM, was signed to join Oliveira full-time this year after a one-off shot in Valencia in 2019.

Last year's Moto2 runner-up Binder was originally signed to Herve Poncharal's squad for this season, before Johann Zarco's abrupt departure from the factory team and an unwillingness from Oliveira to leave his comfortable surroundings at Tech3 meant the South African would be joining Espargaro in the factory line-up for his debut MotoGP campaign.

Petrucci at Tech3, then, is a bit of a glitch in the system as he's anything but a junior rider. But that isn't the biggest problem with KTM's decision.

The coronavirus delay to the 2020 season means we will now have just 13 races this year (possibly four more, should flyaway races be given the go-ahead). That's seven less than originally scheduled, so Binder already had less time to acquit himself in the premier class and learn from his more experienced team-mate. The reduced mileage takes on new significance now, given next year he will be expected to take on a significant role in developing the RC16.

The same is true for Oliveira. Although he does have a season of experience in hand after a solid debut campaign in which he managed a best of eighth in Austria, he hasn't raced since last October owing to a shoulder injury.

Now both will be under more pressure this year from KTM to vindicate its decision - one that quite honestly didn't need to be made at this stage. With the grid almost full up, KTM had time on its side to evaluate Oliveira and Binder over the first handful of races before deciding its next move.

Promotion for Oliveira in place of Binder would hardly be a bad move for the latter, given he'd have full support at Tech3 should he have been moved aside. The same is true for Oliveira if Petrucci had been chosen to fill the Espargaro-shaped void at the factory team.

That pressure will only mount next year, and Binder and Oliveira are hardly the best of friends. Fairly evenly matched towards the end of 2018 when Moto2 team-mates, tensions built.

This continued last October when Binder was announced as Zarco's full-time replacement for 2020. Oliveira fumed to the press that he was led to believe KTM test rider Mika Kallio was getting the ride, hence his decision to stay at Tech3, and felt "less worthy" in KTM's eyes.

Naturally, that tension will spill over into the racing. But if the pair get bogged down in a feud instead of working together to accelerate KTM's march to the front of the grid, and all the while Petrucci skews the optics by beating them on a satellite bike, the consequences could be long-lasting.

The KTM already has a bit of a reputation for being a very particular bike, one not exactly friendly to rookies or even those with experience and references gained with other MotoGP manufacturers. Oliveira's time on the chassis in Moto2 helped his transition a bit, and the same will certainly be true for Binder. But that's also a step that KTM has removed from any young rider who ends up on its radar in the future.

Zarco's miserable time on the bike last year, as well as Syahrin's on the Tech3 bike - both newcomers to KTM accustomed to the user-friendly Yamaha - already act as a warning.

Should Binder and Oliveira struggle, and Petrucci regularly beat them, KTM management will have to face up to questions of why it placed an experienced, proven race winner into its customer team instead of its works outfit. All the while, promising Moto2 frontrunners will look for options elsewhere on the MotoGP grid with whom to step up...