Why Ducati's latest divorce was inevitable

Though it is yet to be made official, Ducati and Danilo Petrucci will part ways at the end of the 2020 season. He's been ousted by the graduating Jack Miller from Pramac and left with no room at the inn as Andrea Dovizioso, despite his qualms over money, looks likely to remain in the other works Ducati garage for 2021.

The harsh truth is that this had been coming since the back-end of last year. Following a strong opening half to the 2019 season - Petrucci's first as a full factory rider - which included his debut win after 124 starts, his form trailed off miserably, with the 29-year-old failing to secure a top six finish on the run from Brno to the season-ender in Valencia. Finding a way out of that spiral proved tricky for Ducati, as Petrucci's weight - being the tallest rider on the grid - played a major factor.

As the rot set in, his short-term future with Ducati had already been assured. But that didn't make him inexpendable in the eyes of the Italian marque.

Autosport understands Ducati was willing to kick Petrucci to the kerb and give Miller the works team Desmosedici for 2020 to facilitate the signing of ousted KTM rider Johann Zarco, who was touted to bypass the Avintia seat he so publicly shunned - but ended up accepting - in Miller's place at Pramac. That would have left Petrucci - as we'd say in Scotland - out on his arse.

But the financial implications of such a move (Ducati would have had to pay a hefty fee to terminate his contract) made this switch not worthwhile, not least because Miller was already on current-spec machinery at Pramac and Zarco hardly warranted the same treatment after his disappointing half-season on the KTM.

Nevertheless, Petrucci's fate with Ducati post-2020 had already been sealed.

Speaking exclusively to Autosport last week as the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya opened up its doors to keen grand prix riders for a track day - the first held since coronavirus plunged the world into lockdown - Aprilia's Aleix Espargaro (who recently revealed he came close to a Ducati deal for 2015, incidentally) didn't hold back in his views on the MotoGP rider market's latest moves.

"Jack already had an official motorcycle last year and the results were practically traced over those of Danilo Petrucci, who, in my view, has been underestimated and is in a somewhat complicated situation now," Espargaro noted.

"What I don't like is how Danilo has been treated. Not only did he win a race, but he made [almost] the same points as Miller in 2019, and now it looks like Jack Miller is the new Casey Stoner and that Danilo is useless, when last year they made the same points with the same bike."

This writer has always admired Espargaro's candidness, but his assessment is an overly simplistic overview of the 2019 season. Last year marked Miller's first as a factory rider with Pramac, and that's no small adjustment as Ducati really put him to work. Petrucci, by contrast, already had a year of experience on works machinery under his belt and only managed one podium visit at Le Mans in 2018.

There's every chance, had Dovizioso mounted more meaningful title challenges in 2018 and '19, Ducati would have stuck by Petrucci. After all, if it's able to get him out of the funk which plagued the second half of his 2019, it knows it has a rider capable of winning races

Miller scored his first podium of the year at round three in America (albeit, somewhat inheriting it after Marc Marquez's crash from the lead). Petrucci didn't manage his first until the fifth round in France. Mugello win and Barcelona third aside, Petrucci never factored in the podium picture again. Miller, on the other hand, managed four in the second half of the year. Petrucci did end up ahead in the standings, but only by 11 points, having failed to break into the top eight in any of the last seven races.

Having failed to finish two races more than Petrucci, a slightly more consistent campaign from Miller would have seen him overhaul a race winner in the championship. And let's not forget Miller had to deal with Ducati unjustly plunging his future into doubt when it made a failed bid to get Jorge Lorenzo back into its fold at Pramac for 2020 mid-season.

PLUS: The scars left by Lorenzo's Ducati flirtation

But Espargaro is correct when he dubs Petrucci's current situation "complicated".

Before we go any further, let's clear one thing up: Petrucci absolutely earned his place at the works Ducati squad. In a 2017 in which new signing Lorenzo managed just three podiums and looked like the ghost of his former self, Petrucci managed four rostrum appearances - twice coming close to victory at Assen and Misano - across a very consistent season with Pramac on equal machinery.

Given the wage packet Lorenzo was on, his early 2018 performances prior to his wins at Mugello and Barcelona hardly warranted it. And on the same weekend at France when Lorenzo was told to sling his hook, Petrucci climbed onto the box in second. At the same time, Dovizioso had proven the year before he was capable of challenging Marquez, and thus signing the cheaper Petrucci made all the sense in the world at the time. Of course, hindsight is a wonderful thing and we now know that Ducati acted too hastily. But, in the context of that specific period, it acted correctly.

Put onto a one-year deal instead of two, Ducati repeatedly urged publicly that Petrucci would have to earn a renewal. And his exceptional Mugello win last year, where he fought tooth and claw with Marquez and Dovizioso to fend off the reigning world champion by just 0.043 seconds, did just that.

Since then, however, Petrucci has faded off the radar and Dovizioso can no longer be relied on to mount a serious title charge having finished 151 points adrift of Marquez as runner-up last year. With the likes of Yamaha and Suzuki opting for youth in its quest for title success, Ducati - having lost its preferred 2021 options of Maverick Vinales, Fabio Quartararo and Joan Mir to Yamaha and Suzuki respectively - had no choice but to do the same. Miller was the best option to run alongside a Dovizioso who, at the very least, will still manage semi-regular wins.

There's every chance, had Dovizioso mounted more meaningful title challenges in 2018 and '19, Ducati would have stuck by Petrucci. After all, if it's able to get him out of the funk which plagued the second half of his 2019, it knows it has a rider capable of winning races.

But times necessitated a change, and you're only as good as your last race. With Petrucci's last outing ending in retirement and Miller's on the podium, the writing was on the wall.

And that's a shame; Petrucci's story is a real underdog one. Coming from Superstock racing in Europe, where he finished second in the 2011 series on a Barni Racing-run Ducati, Petrucci found his way onto the MotoGP grid in 2012 on the abysmally performing and woefully-underfunded Ioda project. Not even sure he would see out his debut campaign on the CRT bike, Petrucci was generally pretty solid given his circumstances and managed a first top-10 finish in the Valencia season finale.

PLUS: Why Miller's Ducati move completes MotoGP's changing of the guard

After two further seasons with Ioda that yielded no further top 10s, Ducati offered him the chance to ride a proper MotoGP bike at Pramac for 2015, and he duly repaid the favour with his first podium at a wet Silverstone, where he beat works rider Dovizioso and gave eventual winner Valentino Rossi a run for his money. When he took to the top step of the Mugello podium last year as a works team Ducati rider, on his 124th time of asking, Petrucci really had come right from the bottom.

This writer is not in the slightest bit biased towards anyone in racing, but you can't help but have a soft spot for Petrucci. An extremely affable chap, he is a great racer and still has a lot to offer.

Times necessitated a change, and you're only as good as your last race. With Petrucci's last outing ending in retirement and Miller's on the podium, the writing was on the wall

That's why Ducati is keen - if rumours are to be believed - to move him over to its works World Superbike project for 2021. A return to Pramac in MotoGP is off the cards given its prime directive now is essentially to act as a junior Ducati outfit, hence why Francesco Bagnaia and Jorge Martin will be filling those seats next year.

Petrucci has also been linked to the potentially vacant Aprilia alongside Espargaro. Aprilia is sticking by the banned Andrea Iannone for now, and has expressed repeatedly its desire to retain the Italian.

But, having tried to court him for 2018, Aprilia could do a lot worse than put an offer in front of Petrucci. Goodness knows he deserves another shot...