The 2006 Brazilian GP Preview

Analysis

After a roller coaster weekend in Japan, including a rare Ferrari engine failure that gifted Fernando Alonso the win, reducing Michael Schumacher to a mathematical chance at the drivers' championship, the teams head to the Interlagos circuit in Sao Paulo, Brazil with the constructors' championship firmly in sight.

Interlagos is an interesting circuit, particularly when it rains. Dominated by a long uphill straight, engine power is at a premium, and aerodynamics are usually compromised to ensure sufficient top speed to avoid being overtaken. Too big a compromise results in reduced downforce, however, which is expensive over the rest of the lap.

A bumpy surface will cause headaches for teams as they look to minimise the ride heights without over-stiffening the suspension: finding the right balance is critical to a quick laptime, particularly with downforce compromises in place.

With a couple of overtaking opportunities available, this is a circuit that sometimes sees aggressive strategies as drivers gamble on being able to make passes - though banking on opening any sizeable gaps at any stage is doubly risky as there the safety car often makes an appearance.

Being one of the few anti-clockwise circuits, driver fatigue may come into play by the end of the race - though the modern drivers are mostly so fit it should not be a factor.

Flashback 2005

In 2005, Alonso held a comfortable pole, ahead of Montoya' McLaren. Fisichella was struggling with grip, but still third, ahead of an oversteering Button; Raikkonen was fifth after locking up in to the first corner. Klien had a fantastic qualifying, sixth for Red Bull ahead of Schumacher's Ferrari and Trulli's Toyota - though an engine change would penalise him ten spots. Barrichello qualified tenth ahead of Ralf Schumacher.

The race started with confusion: Villeneuve was in the pits for breaking Parc Ferme rules, with Monteiro joining him after the parade lap. When the lights went out, Alonso stayed cleanly ahead of Montoya in to the first corner, with Montoya slotting in behind and Raikkonen moving up from fifth to third with Schumacher slotting in to fourth. Further back, Pizzonia squeezed Coulthard's Red Bull into his teammate Webber, resulting in carnage... much to the glee of Takuma Sato, who having not taken a qualifying lap, discovered himself in eleventh place!

Once the safety car returned to the pitlane, Alonso controlled the restart, but it was clear Montoya was quicker: he made short work of pressuring Alonso into braking late and passing, though the Renault driver stopped the resulting gap from opening beyond three seconds. Alonso then pitted relatively early, on lap 20, soon followed by Barrichello, Klien, both Schumachers and Button by lap 26. Montoya stopped on 28 with Raikkonen following - after some blistering laps that moved him comfortably ahead of Alonso - on 31.

Barrichello and Button battled aggressively for sixth, with the Ferrari driver making it through on lap 44, as Fisichella pushed Schumacher as he looked to restore a fourth place he lost in the pitstops. The Renaults stopped shortly after. Montoya, Schumacher, Klien and Villeneuve stopped on lap 54 with Button and Ralf Schumacher stopping shortly after. Raikkonen pushed hard for five laps, threatening to exit the pits ahead of his teammate, but ultimately coming out just behind. He led his teammate home, whilst Alonso cruised to an easy third - and his first world championship.

Pos  Driver        Team                  Time
 1.  Montoya       McLaren-Mercedes (M) 1h:29:20.574
 2.  Raikkonen     McLaren-Mercedes (M)  +     2.527
 3.  Alonso        Renault          (M)  +    24.840
 4.  M.Schumacher  Ferrari          (B)  +    35.668
 5.  Fisichella    Renault          (M)  +    40.218
 6.  Barrichello   Ferrari          (B)  +  1:09.173
 7.  Button        BAR-Honda        (M)  +     1 lap
 8.  R.Schumacher  Toyota           (M)  +     1 lap

Fastest lap: Raikkonen, 1:12.268

Weather

Although scattered showers may impinge on Friday's running, the remainder of the weekend is expected to see no rain - indeed, the sun may be out in time for the race on Sunday. That said, Sao Paulo is notorious for changing conditions, so you can never rule out rain over the weekend.

Tyres

If ever there was doubt that tyres are important, a quick look back at the improved form of the Bridgestone runners in Japan makes it totally apparent. However, selection here is always somewhat tricky as a dirty track surface - possibly confused by showers on Friday - may hamper analysis.

Strategy

The relatively long pitlane makes three stops expensive: making that work is tough but possible if the driver can pass aggressively whilst running qualifying like pace for the whole race; similarly, although the big hill on to the main straight makes it difficult to defend positions in to the first corner when carrying the heavy fuel loads, the penalty is relatively low, so a single stop is not prohibited.

Accordingly, most front-running teams will probably opt for two stops to maximise qualifying position, but single stopping or very long first stint are options in order to make up places.

Conclusions

Renault head to Brazil with everything to lose - a decent run will see them take both championships - but attention should remain firmly on Schumacher as he approaches his final race weekend: Ferrari are aiming to dominate and send him off with a weekend to remember.

Behind the leading duo, BAR and McLaren should be fighting to finish well, with BMW and Toyota snapping on their heels.

A lap of Interlagos with Pedro de la Rosa

Powering along the uphill start-finish straight at Interlagos, you reach some 316km/h in sixth gear, before braking hard as the track gradient drops sharply on the entrance to the Descida do Sol. Your speed drops to 103km/h in first gear as you negotiate the tight left, which provides the best opportunity for overtaking.

A flowing right-left sequence follows immediately, you push slightly on the throttle to increase your speed slightly through the right of the Senna 'S', which is taken at 143km/h in third gear, as is where the pit exit feeds back onto the track. The left of Curva do Sol that follows, is a long bend, which is usually quite bumpy, but is taken flat out, at 201km/h. It is important to increase your speed and take a good line through the corner as it swings you onto the long Reta Oposta straight.

Pushing hard on the throttle, you reach 310km/h in seventh gear, braking hard for the double apex of Descida do Lago, which is negotiated at 145km/h in second gear. The entrance to the first tight left provides another good overtaking opportunity. Exiting the second apex, which is very bumpy and should again be taken flat out to ensure you have speed on the exit, you blast along the short straight that leads to Ferra dura.

You brake from 288km/h in fifth gear to 192km/h in third to negotiate the difficult and slippery right hander which is off camber in the exit. Another short burst of power leads to a slow, tight right hander, which is taken in first gear, and is immediately followed by the second gear 98km/h left hand of Pinheirinho. Exiting in third gear, your speed builds up to about 160km/h before braking hard for the Bico de Pato hairpin, the slowest point on the track, which is taken in first gear at 81km/h.

The bumpy left hander of Mergulho follows, which can be taken flat out in qualifying at 235km/h in third, before braking hard for the important left hander of Juncao, which is taken in first gear at 114km/h. This leads you uphill through the long left hander of Subida do Boxes, which takes you back onto the long start-finish straight.

Team by Team

Renault

It was a dream result in Japan: after such a dominant performance by the Bridgestone-shod Ferrari outfit, the race looked lost in qualifying, before fortune took a hand and brought the team an unexpected win.

With Alonso ten points ahead of Schumacher, the team need only ensure he finish in the points this weekend to clinch his second world championship; furthermore, defending a nine point lead in the constructor's championship leaves them able to secure the title with only ten points - that would be third and fifth place finishes.

Bringing on a revision to the engine confirms the team are maintaining their aggressive approach to the last event; it should give him an edge in the forthcoming race, though whether it is enough to compete with the Ferrari's is yet to be seen.

Drivers: Fernando Alonso secured his first championship in Brazil last season, and is set to do the same again, provided he doesn't suffer any failures over the course of the weekend. Whilst the Spaniard would love to finish the year with another win, Schumacher probably has the advantage in this one - the podium would suffice.

Giancarlo Fisichella has not had the most memorable of seasons, but recently has been putting in some stronger performances. Having been under the shadow of Alonso all year, this is another weekend when his role as teammate could be vital - should the Spaniard's car fail, he must prevent Schumacher from winning.

Objectives: Get both cars on the podium and clinch both championships.

Pedro de la Rosa, McLaren MP4/21 Mercedes © LAT

McLaren Mercedes

Japan was tough on McLaren, who admitted a poor tyre choice contributed to a lacklustre qualifying performance. Raikkonen recovered to fifth overall on race day, thanks to impeccable strategy and solid sustained pace, though de la Rosa did nothing spectacular.

The Brazilian outing represents a final chance to fight for a race win this year, but without a noticeable step forward, that is going to be a tough challenge. That said, the team have been fighting to do precisely that: whilst the gap to Alonso and Schumacher is probably too large to challenge, a they aimed to have closed the gap enough to let Raikkonen finish with the season on top of the podium.

Realistically, just getting on the podium is a more achievable target, though both cars should be capable of finishing in the points.

Drivers: Kimi Raikkonen, given half a chance, would love to leave McLaren with a final win - but just making it to the podium would be a good result; Pedro de la Rosa had a disappointing weekend in Japan so a return to the solid, if unremarkable performances that he put on so far would be welcome.

Objectives: Podium finish.

Ferrari

After disappointment when Schumacher's engine give up in Japan, it would be easy to imagine them heading to the final event despondent; but in this sport, even the slimmest mathematical chances often prove to be worth fighting over.

Accordingly, the team have been testing hard since leaving Suzuka, putting together some impressive laps and illustrating a fierce pace; they are heading to the last round with the intention of dominating if at all possible. Whilst that may not be sufficient to win either championship, it would force Renault to score well - and keep open the possibility of a fairytale ending, should the improbable happen and Alonso retire.

Prospects are actually pretty good. In the dry, the team are clear favourites to win, and whilst their wet weather tyres might be less effective than Michelin's overall, they are likely to perform particularly well on a drying track with rivulets over the corners.

If nothing else, there is a huge incentive to provide Schumacher with every opportunity at his final race in Formula One.

Drivers: Michael Schumacher arrives as favourite, looking to end his career in the drivers seat with a win. Whilst perhaps more vulnerable to Brazilian teammates here than usual, he should be fired up and difficult to beat.

Felipe Massa ought to benefit from racing at home, perhaps racing with an edge here - though team orders are likely to be a factor if he is only one place ahead of Schumacher. Nevertheless, his target for the weekend has to be a podium finish.

Objectives: Finish 1-2.

The Toyota garage © LAT

Toyota

The team did an excellent job of qualifying in Japan - filling row two with their cars: quite a performance in front of their home crowd. It was little surprise to discover it came at the expense of race day pace, but a double points finish is always welcome, even sixth and seventh.

Since the race, it transpires that Trulli refused to move over for his teammate, costing a possible fourth place.

If Bridgestone don't have the same advantage in Brazil, then they might be ruing that compromise: currently a point adrift from BMW in the constructors' championship, they need to beat them this time out to take fifth overall.

Drivers: Ralf Schumacher has often disappointed at this circuit - and though it is usually difficult to predict when he will show something special, this weekend is more likely than most to see him struggle to match his teammate.

Jarno Trulli, on the other hand, often does well (though not last year, ironically) and should be looking forward to a strong weekend; if he can get the car in to the third qualifying session, then points are likely.

Objectives: Beat BMW-Sauber and score at least two points.

Williams Cosworth

Despite an apparent Bridgestone advantage in Japan, the team struggled to make inroads and despite seeing a car qualify in the top ten, they left disappointed.

In-season development has not been up to the normal standard at Williams, leaving their drivers further off the pace as the season progresses. Then again, with the talent they have available, they should be able to get the maximum out of the package, such as it is. Accordingly, particularly if Bridgestone have a good weekend, there is always a chance of making it to the top ten in qualifying, from which there may be a chance to pick up a point.

Anything positive at this stage would be a good way to finish the season, which is set to be worse than the Judd-powered seventh place finish '88. In fact, it is the worst year they have had since 1978.

Drivers: Mark Webber did not have his best showing in Japan, but with his future secured elsewhere, that is unlikely to trouble him unduly; a stronger outing in Brazil might yield a point, and would certainly be a good way to go out.

Nico Rosberg had little to show for a fighting race last weekend, but may but will be hoping to make more inroads this time out; despite low experience, he has proved a able foil for his teammate, stepping up when Webber has been off form.

Objectives: Score a point!

Rubens Barrichello and Jenson Button © LAT

Honda

After discovering Bridgestone held a solid advantage in qualifying in Suzuka, Barrichello suffered a first-lap incident to leave him unable to challenge for points, though Button raced his way through to fourth - a respectable result all told, complete with the comfort of beating Toyota at their last visit to Honda's own circuit.

With the team confirmed in fourth place overall, Button solidly sixth in the championship, there is nothing to prove at the final race of the season, so it is an opportunity to put mileage on development parts as much as to see how well the new engine delivers on the long straight.

Whilst having little to prove, the team are clearly looking to place both cars in the points and is very likely to impact the battle for fifth between Toyota and BMW-Sauber.

Drivers: Jenson Button continues to deliver results, even on tough weekends, with little expected to change this weekend. He is again likely to finish just off the podium. Rubens Barrichello always appreciates the support of his home crowd and his performance usually steps up a notch - he will expect to outqualify Button here and probably beat him on race day, provided his infamous luck at this circuit doesn't force a retirement.

Objectives: Target podium, though double points finish is more realistic.

Red Bull Racing Ferrari

The Suzuka visit was dismal for Red Bull, seeing poor qualifying results and lacklustre racing.

Although the points margin over Williams probably makes the team's seventh place secure, they need to put together a better weekend if they are to go in to the off-season with any sort of momentum, but with the team apparently focused on next year's car, not much is likely to change.

Wet weather could upset the apple cart and allow the drivers a chance to make a difference, particularly if there are people making mistakes; otherwise, this is likely to be little more than an opportunity for Doornbos to get some racing laps in.

Drivers: David Coulthard has plenty of experience here, but the package is not going to offer much platform to show it. Robert Doornbos is likely to drive another sensible race.

Objectives: Just get both cars to the finish.

BMW Sauber

Japan did not bring the best weekend for BMW, though they still scored a point - a very positive outcome for what is effectively a midfield team in their first year with a new engine/chassis partnership.

Robert Kubica and Nick Heidfeld © LAT

Looking at the weekend ahead, the BMW power plant should offer the team a decent shot at getting both cars in the points; when downforce has reduced this season, both drivers have improved relative to their competition, so they have power and driveability from the engine, combined with excellent mechanical grip and balance.

Whilst Kubica continues to get plaudits from far and wide, it is still his teammate delivering most of the results. Whether this will change in Brazil is difficult to say, but they have to be expecting both to score points.

Vitally, the team are now only a single point clear of Toyota in the quest for fifth in the constructors' championship: if they are in touch with the Japanese outfit on race day, don't be surprised if strategies are adjusted on the fly as they attempt to cover their rivals.

Drivers: Nick Heidfeld may be struggling to contain his inexperienced teammate, but he continues to get the job done: another top ten qualifying and points finish is likely to be on the cards.

Robert Kubica is clearly still showing rawness, but is just as clearly an exciting talent, fast and capable of passing in tough circumstances. Brazil should offer a chance to showcase both.

Objectives: Qualify in the top ten - and get both cars in the points. More important: beat Toyota.

Spyker MF1 Toyota

Although they didn't have much to show for from their results, Spyker actually looked like they were having a decent outing in Japan, underlining the progress they have made this season.

The team tested since then, partly to give GP2 driver Ernesto Viso a chance to drive the car before his appearance on Friday as the third driver, but also looking for the performance jump from the tyres that will let them compete effectively with Toro Rosso.

Maintaining the momentum would go a long way towards moral through the off-season, so the team are looking for a solid performance again this weekend. Getting into the second session in qualifying and running with the Red Bull teams would do nicely.

Drivers: Tiago Monteiro and Christijan Albers are both capable of having a decent weekend; the former is more likely to get the car to the finish, whilst the latter will perhaps show an edge on absolute speed. Mind you, with Monteiro looking to keep his seat, there is extra pressure for him to perform.

Objectives: Get both cars to the finish - preferably beating a Toro Rosso or two.

Toro Rosso Cosworth

It was not a good weekend for Toro Rosso in Japan: they had spins, a collision and a power steering failure on race day, which was disappointing after a reasonable qualifying.

Looking to Brazil, there is little chance that things will change. The team still have a package that might let them hassle their Red Bull teammates on a good day, but leaves them struggling to contain the Spykers otherwise.

With attention focused on what their package will look like next season - complete the distraction of threats of legal action if their car too closely resembles any Red Bull offering - it will be interesting to see how the weekend pans out.

Drivers: Again, there is little to choose between Tonio Liuzzi and Scott Speed in terms of their potential performance - each is relatively quick, both want to compete and they are likely to overdrive in their quest to excel. But the racing should be exciting if they are running near anyone else.

A sign of support for Takuma Sato © Super Aguri F1 Images

Objectives: Get both cars to the finish.

Super Aguri Honda

Super Aguri had one of their better outings in Japan, getting a car off the back row in qualifying and staying in touch with Toro Rosso and Spyker on Sunday: whilst little to celebrate, it is a positive indication of their dedication and progress, particularly considering just how far off the back of the field they were at the start of the season.

Brazil is a power circuit, so the team should benefit from reduced reliance on aerodynamics; whilst unlikely to change their results, their time deficit to the front-runners should be reduced, and the team will be in a better position to capitalise if any midfield runners make mistakes.

Drivers: Takuma Sato had a solid outing in Japan, making the most of his home support and delivering a decent race for his fans. The car is close enough to the opposition that he may be able to deliver a strong finish - though points are not on the cards.

Sakon Yamamoto continued to show his inexperience at the technical Suzuka circuit, so Brazil might offer his only real chance to demonstrate some potential this season.

Objectives: Get at least one car off the back row in qualifying and beat someone on race day.