Enter the Spoilers

The thunderstruck look on Felipe Massa's face after Saturday's qualifying session said it all. The weekend's Bahrain Grand Prix had rightly been touted as Massa's prime opportunity to overcome the disappointments of Australia and Malaysia, and finally launch himself into the 2008 championship hunt.

True to expectations, Massa had looked the part during almost every session leading up the final qualifying. With Ferrari losing nothing of their advantage from Malaysia, and on possibly his favourite circuit, the Brazilian seemed a class apart from his challengers.

Yet, when the qualifying dust had settled, Massa found himself unexpectedly pipped into second place by Robert Kubica, who recorded BMW-Sauber's first-ever pole position in the process.

There is a popular perception that Felipe Massa can not win from anywhere other than pole position. If the drivers don't give much credence to their popular stereotypes, Massa's facial expression surely didn't dispel the perception either. He looked like a man who had just seen certain victory snatched away from him.

Ultimately, he needn't have fretted. Kubica's excessive wheelspin from the start-line was all that was needed to restore the form book and, before the first corner, Massa wasn't into a lead that he never looked like relinquishing.

Further problems for Kubica in the early laps, this time on the oil spilled from corners 4 to 10, was enough to let Massa's Ferrari team-mate Kimi Raikkonen through into second place.

From that position, it was always going to be a dominant one-two for the Scuderia, particularly after McLaren's Lewis Hamilton had exacerbated an awful start by running into the back of former team-mate Fernando Alonso's Renault on lap 2.

That left Kubica and Hamilton's team-mate Heikki Kovalainen as the most credible challengers to the Ferraris. Kovalainen made it through to the finish without incident, but again showed little more than a solid race in the position he inherited, without troubling the rest of the runners.

Despite leaving Bahrain joint third in the championship, just five points behind fellow Finn and championship leader Raikkonen, Kovalainen is the only one of the top four not to have won a Grand Prix this season.

More significantly, he hasn't looked like challenging for a win either. A badly flat-spotted tyre for almost the whole of the first stint was the official explanation for his inability to stay with the BMWs and Ferraris ahead. However, there was little visible difference between that stint and any other so far this year.

Neither the car nor Kovalainen lack single lap pace. The Finn set fastest race laps in both Australia and Bahrain, yet seems unable to turn that single lap pace into a compelling full race distance.

It is a problem that has also plagued both BMW-Sauber and Robert Kubica in the recent past. On Sunday, Kubica was expected to duck into the pitlane half a dozen laps earlier than his fellow front-runners, before once again receding into the midfield once his car was heavy with fuel.

Robert Kubica © LAT

Although Kubica again pitted earlier than his rivals in Bahrain, he was able to stay comfortably in third place - and in sight of the Ferraris - for the remainder of the race. For the second Grand Prix in a row, Kubica not only finished ahead of both McLarens, but twenty seconds or more ahead of them.

The benefits of the revolutionary BMW design clearly extend further than just the ability to turn in a fast qualifying lap with a light fuel load. There is genuine race pace in the car.

The most obvious conclusion is that BMW (along with Ferrari) have made the smoothest transition to racing without traction control, ensuring that their rear tyres retain peak condition for longer.

This, in turn, has elicited comments from both Raikkonen and Hamilton that BMW are now a top team who can win races in 2008.

Outside of the drivers' circle, opinions are more guarded. BMW motorsport director Mario Theissen feels that the major upgrade packages scheduled by all teams for Spain will provide a clearer picture of their true form. McLaren chief Ron Dennis believes that BMW still lack the research and development capacity to keep up with Ferrari and McLaren over the course of a full season.

Even if the team chiefs prove to be more correct than their drivers, the BMW improvement has already changed the complexion of the 2008 season. If Kubica and Nick Heidfeld can't challenge for regular wins and the championship title, they will at least play the role of spoilers, taking points away from the four main contenders.

In this role, Kubica looks the more likely spoiler of the BMW pairing. Ordinarily, the vastly experienced Heidfeld would be expected to adapt more easily to driving without traction control. Yet Heidfeld has continued from where he left off in 2007 - quietly and consistently amassing points while seldom threatening the front-runners.

Instead, Kubica has been the driver to ignite excitement about BMW's victory potential. Part of that is circumstantial. BMW usually apply greater qualifying fuel load differences to their two cars than most other teams (four or five laps typically), and Kubica has been the designated hare in two races out of three, allowing him to get among the frontrunners from the start.

However, even when Kubica had the heavier car (in Malaysia), he still qualified ahead of his German team-mate. That makes the qualifying score 3-0 in the Pole's favour so far, the exact opposite of 2007 when Heidfeld was 3-0 up after Bahrain. Heidfeld may end up scoring more points over the year, but Kubica will prove the more troublesome spoiler for the Ferrari and McLaren drivers.

Pitboard for Lewis Hamilton © LAT

It's not an eventuality that will please Hamilton, and made his opening stint mistakes and subsequent poor race in Bahrain even more significant. After an unbelievably consistent start to his Formula One career, Hamilton is suddenly experiencing the sort of mishaps that would typically plague a rookie driver.

Having to contend with drivers from two legitimate championship rival teams instead of just one further complicates the strategic options, at a time when Hamilton would want to keep things as simple as possible.

Even with his proven ability to charge through the field in GP2 and other lower formulae, Hamilton has quickly discovered that such heroics are less achievable in Formula One.

With the three top teams within two points of each other, the imminent technological upgrade for each will prove vital. There's little reason to expect that Ferrari's development pace will flag and that they will lose ground to their rivals as the circus arrives in Europe.

But if either of the McLarens or BMWs finishes ahead of a Ferrari in Barcelona, the title battle will be well and truly on.