Edged Out

Racing purists will not relish the memory that Formula One's return to the historic Spa-Francorchamps circuit for Sunday's Belgian Grand Prix, after an absence of one year, was completely overshadowed by the controversial events around last Thursday's World Motor Sports Council hearing in Paris.

Even with Eau Rouge being a flat-out corner these days, and with its new-look but largely neutered Bus Stop chicane, Spa should be the racing highlight of the F1 calendar, not an afterthought to off-track politics.

Although the race spectators and world-wide television audience were at least given the prospect of an exciting race, particularly considering how close the McLaren team and drivers had come to being excluded from the rest of the 2007 season as well as 2008.

It was another ostensibly cynical decision by the FIA, in order to prolong the tightrope championship struggle right down to the season finale in Brazil.

However, it was a decision that few neutral fans would object to. If an untainted championship wasn't possible (and that was a given long before Thursday's verdict), at least we could enjoy good close racing to finish out what has been an otherwise tight and hard-fought season.

With the legal tumult behind and the weekend of racing now as the focus, one thing became immediately clear: Kimi Raikkonen has not only inherited his Ferrari seat from Michael Schumacher, but also the title of 'King of Spa'.

After the Finn had won the two previous Belgian GP (one of them in the marginally competitive 2004 McLaren), he was always going to be the man to beat over the fast sweeps and dramatic elevation changes that characterise the circuit.

While it eventually turned out to be a fairly straightforward victory for Raikkonen, his effort was almost spoiled by another excellent qualifying performance from team-mate Felipe Massa. Carrying an extra lap of fuel in final qualifying (on the circuit where fuel load has the highest impact), Massa came within two-hundredths of a second of snatching the pole.

The new Bus Stop configuration might not be as challenging as the original chicane, but it was tough enough to derail Massa's championship campaign. A minor lock-up of the front brakes on his final qualifying effort through the Bus Stop cost him precious fractions and demoted him to second on the grid behind his team-mate.

From that position, Massa's dwindling championship hopes depended on passing Raikkonen on the run from the lights to La Source, or on the Finn encountering reliability problems later in the race.

When neither materialised, the championship narrowed to a three-horse race. Massa is still not eliminated arithmetically, although victory would require an improbable combination of Massa winning all three of the remaining races, while the other three contenders all fail to various degrees. If Ferrari had hedged their bets on which driver to support until now, Spa resolved the issue.

Massa could not complain if Ferrari put their full support behind Raikkonen now, although the Brazilian would have cause to believe that mechanical luck, rather than driver superiority, was the deciding factor.

From his gearbox problem during qualifying for the season-opener at Australia, Massa had been on the back foot and playing catch-up all year. It's indicative of the margins in modern F1 that a driver could be edged out of the championship race due to such factors.

The Ferraris lead as Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton battle into Eau Rouge © XPB/LAT

On the McLaren side of the drivers' championship equation, points leader Lewis Hamilton was almost edged out by his team-mate in a far more forceful manner. Fernando Alonso's blocking move on the exit of La Source, with Hamilton threatening to pull off another spectacular start-line overtaking move on his outside, would have caused even Michael Schumacher to raise eyebrows.

The incident produced the predictable response - Hamilton angrily alleging that Alonso's tactics were unfair, the champion coolly defending his move as 'hard racing'.

Both drivers have valid points. While Hamilton has both defended and chased aggressively all year, he has routinely allowed space for the other driver.

At Monza last weekend, he gave Massa a car's width (albeit only just) on the outside during the run down to turn one, and again gave him enough space on the inside under braking for the same corner.

The same applied to Hamilton's defence against Massa's attempted pass in Malaysia. He may have squeezed Massa to the inside, but not off the racing surface altogether.

Alonso failed to give Hamilton a car's width, instead drifting so wide that Alonso himself had two wheels off the track. On a track enclosed by Armco barriers, gravel traps or grass, the move would have blocked Hamilton unfairly. Yet, with the wide asphalt run-off area skirting the track, Hamilton was able to stay on the throttle and to enter Eau Rouge side-by-side with Alonso.

Importantly, it allows Hamilton to adopt the same tactic in future races. If Alonso attempts a pass at any spot with an asphalt run-off, Hamilton will no longer feel obliged to leave a car's width of space.

This, in turn, raises the question of how much longer the McLaren drivers can continue to court disaster without suffering the inevitable consequences.

Over the last three races and despite Alonso's worsening situation within the team, the McLaren balance has shifted incrementally towards the Spaniard.

That is understandable, as his greater experience is brought to bear down the championship stretch. But it does leave the intriguing possibility that, as championship leader, Hamilton would benefit more from a race-ending collision between the two.

At the moment, the lingering challenge from Raikkonen will ensure that the McLaren pair maintain a sense of responsibility, and keep bringing the cars to the finish intact.

Ayrton Senna and Alain Prost in the 1989 Japanese Grand Prix © LAT

However, if Raikkonen or Ferrari fail before Brazil and leave the championship down to a straight scrap between Hamilton and Alonso, Ron Dennis could again witness his two star drivers colliding in the key race of the championship - just as they did at Suzuka in 1989.

That is not the only similarity with the legendary Prost-Senna rivalry. In 2007, as in 1989, the individual McLaren team members must surely polarise into two separate camps.

There is enough expertise and resources on both sides of the garage to ensure that both drivers get a fair deal over the final few races. However, there is also the question of continuity and McLaren's future.

If the team decides that the Alonso-Hamilton pairing is as untenable as the Prost-Senna partnership of the late 1980s, then Alonso will feel (as Prost did in 1989) that he is the one who has been edged out. History records that Prost went on to triumph in that year, although with one key advantage that Alonso does not enjoy - the lead in the championship.

Alonso may already have concluded that he has no future at McLaren, and that his reputation (sky high after two euphoric and relatively uncontroversial championships with Renault) may have been irrevocably stained by events during 2007.

Under those circumstances, there is only one consolation left for Alonso - the championship. As such, the next three GPs will be of crucial importance in determining how history will remember Alonso.

It's a do-or-die situation which could bring out the very best in the reigning champion.