A Brittle Balance

After a month away from racing, McLaren's Fernando Alonso and Ferrari's Kimi Raikkonen may have hoped that the break would shake their junior teammates out of the impressive form shown in Bahrain. But when the season resumed in last Sunday's Spanish Grand Prix, it was the less-fancied (and lower paid) of the quartet who again outshone their 'franchise star' teammates.

The gulf between the teammate salaries is so great, yet the difference in their on-track performances so marginal, that the championship has almost evolved into two intra-team battles, Alonso versus Hamilton and Raikkonen against Massa.

Following another disappointing loss to his rookie McLaren partner, Alonso has stated that being beaten by Hamilton worries him less than losing to Ferrari. It could be dismissed as the two-time champion attempting to divert attention from being effectively upstaged by the 22 year old, but it nevertheless rings true.

McLaren may lead the Constructors' Championship by nine points, and they may have both their drivers atop the Drivers' Championship table. Yet they are also astute enough to know that the results so far in 2007 have flattered them.

In four GP weekends, the McLaren pair has managed just one win and one fastest lap between them. Ferrari, by contrast, have taken every pole position and recorded a clean sweep of pole/fastest lap/race win in three of the four outings.

McLaren have done outstanding work in correcting their traditional weakness - early season unreliability - which has previously forced them into playing catch-up for the rest of the year. They have recorded eight points finishes out of eight starts this season, the first time they have achieved such consistency since the partnership with Mercedes began in the mid-90s.

Still, they seem powerless to prevent Ferrari from winning, relying instead on mishaps affecting the Scuderia. Felipe Massa indulged them with a driving error in Malaysia, freeing up Alonso to build a race-winning lead. In Spain, it was Raikkonen's electronics problems that allowed both McLarens to finish on the podium.

While it's been enough to keep McLaren marginally ahead in both championships, it's not sustainable over the course of the season - particularly not if Felipe Massa continues to drive as he did in Bahrain and Spain. If Kimi Raikkonen gets to grips with the Ferrari and lives up to his reputation and potential, 1-2 finishes could become as regular for Ferrari as they were in 2004.

In Fernando Alonso, McLaren have the best available defender of a championship lead. Both of the Spaniard's titles were founded on early domination, followed by grim defense to sustain the advantage. Alonso still excels at damage limitation, but lacks what he enjoyed at Renault - daylight between himself and his Ferrari pursuers.

It's a situation that is compelling Alonso, for the first time since becoming champion, to try and manufacture his own luck through brute force. On Sunday, his first corner decision to go for broke, no doubt exacerbated by the extra adrenaline of racing in front of his partisan home crowd, was an uncharacteristically rash move.

Fernando Alonso (McLaren MP4-22 Mercedes) and Robert Kubica (BMW Sauber F1.07) © LAT

After veering from the gravel back onto the racing line at a far slower speed than the closing pack, Alonso could count losing just two positions as a major let-off.

Alonso then compounded the damage by running a full 29 lap middle stint (almost half the race distance) on the harder tyre. Even if it was part of Alonso's race plan all along to use the prime tyre during the middle stint, doing so on a heavier fuel load than his rivals was always a strategy doomed to failure.

Even as Alonso lost ground to the leaders, he was failing to shake fourth-placed driver Robert Kubica in the BMW. For most of Alonso's long middle stint, he was just 2-3 seconds ahead of Kubica. Once he had switched to the softer tyre for the final stint, Alonso pulled away from the BMW at almost a second per lap.

Staying out so long on the harder tyre, and risking losing track position to Kubica if there was even a slight hitch at his final pit-stop, was a risk with no reward for Alonso.

Still, even a disappointing third place for the reigning champion was six points more than Kimi Raikkonen earned for his weekend's work. The electrical problems in the Ferrari must have left the Finn wondering if there isn't some grand conspiracy against him. No sooner has he switched teams than his previously fragile McLaren becomes bulletproof and the previously dependable Ferrari breaks down.

Raikkonen has the machinery to turn his fortunes around. Felipe Massa has proved that conclusively after technical gremlins in Australia and a driving error at Sepang had left him looking distracted and out of touch with the leaders. If Massa can rebound so brilliantly, Raikkonen has no excuse. Paradoxically, the Spain setback might be just the spur that Raikkonen needs.

Despite their differences in approach (particularly to the team), Raikkonen now finds himself in the same predicament that faced Michael Schumacher in 2003 - trailing early and up against McLarens that have consistency if not an outright speed advantage.

In that situation, Schumacher pulled out six GP wins to Raikkonen's one. Not even seven second-place finishes were enough to secure the championship for the Finn. Ferrari require the same response now. Raikkonen doesn't have to drive like Michael Schumacher. He only needs to drive like Felipe Massa.

Raikkonen's and Alonso's problems gifted a third successive 8 point finish to Lewis Hamilton, earning him a couple of new records in the process - first rookie to achieve podium finishes in his first four races, and youngest man ever to lead the championship. Yet, despite having led every race so far, Hamilton is the only driver of the top four not to have won in 2007. He has also failed to knock the Ferraris off pole position at each GP.

Lewis Hamilton leads ASM Formula 3 teammate Adrian Sutil in Monaco © XPB/LAT

The result is that, after four races, the championship has reached a brittle balance. The championship leader hasn't done enough to win a race, and the race winners haven't done enough to lead the championship. It's a situation that cannot sustain for long, but it's an even money bet which will fold first - McLaren's reliability, Hamilton's consistency or Ferrari's ability to keep snatching crucial pole positions and wins.

It sounds absurd to criticise a driver for failing to win in his first four races. Yet if he is to establish himself as the championship favourite that some are already claiming, Hamilton must win and win soon. Continually racking up second-place finishes may not be enough, just as it wasn't enough for Kimi Raikkonen in 2003.

Fortunately for Hamilton, the venue for the next GP - Monaco - is perfect. The tight and twisty street circuit will suit the McLaren package, and Hamilton has never lost a race in the principality.

Hamilton has impressed by not making any significant mistakes in F1, but he hasn't taken any significant risks either. Two of his second-place finishes have been due to mistakes by his rivals. He has been exceptional in accepting positions handed to him, but hasn't yet shown that he can dictate races from the front. It's the key difference that still separates him from Alonso, Raikkonen and Massa.

Playing it conservative at Monaco, and allowing the Ferraris to win again, may extend Hamilton's podium streak and even maintain his championship lead. However, particularly in such a close-run championship, ultimate victory will go to the man who takes it, not to the driver who waits for others to give it.

At the very least, Hamilton must be gunning for pole position at Monaco. Just leading the pack through St Devote on lap one, putting him in position to dictate rather than respond, may herald Hamilton's elevation to the next level.