Why Verstappen would have beaten Leclerc without safety car help

Of course Max Verstappen won the Italian Grand Prix. On paper, the race on enemy soil was nigh on a perfect fit for the way car and driver find their performance in 2022.

The defending champion has been firing on all cylinders this season, much like the Honda engine mounted in the middle of his Red Bull that has produced a top-speed edge over Ferrari so often. As a result, flat-out Monza was surely tailored made for the leggy RB18, even if the tifosi were desperately hoping for one of their own to win the 100th anniversary event at the ‘Temple of Speed’.

Intriguingly, Red Bull somewhat defied expectation last weekend with its approach to set-up. Instead of running with a conventional wafer-thin rear wing to cut through the air as cleanly as possible and let the speedo climb more freely, the engineers actually opted for a higher downforce configuration. For if Verstappen could exploit the greater levels of grip to carry more speed out of the three chicanes, two Lesmos and one Parabolica, then he could spend less time on the straights in total, even if he wasn’t hitting the same ultra-high V-max as the Ferraris.

There was previous here. In fact, a similar strategy allowed Sebastian Vettel to win the fastest race in the ‘slowest’ car back in 2011. On his way to a second world title, the German opted to use a shorter seventh gear ratio at Monza to sacrifice some speed at the end of the straights but knowing he’d been much faster than anyone else onto them.

This wasn’t quite an exact copy 11 years later, though, as Verstappen didn’t edge qualifying. The Red Bull could set the pace through Curva Grande, della Roggia, Ascari and out of the final corner. But everywhere else, the Ferrari F1-75 used its superior battery deployment to streak ahead over the line. All told, Verstappen missed the benchmark set by Charles Leclerc by 0.145 seconds to set the second-fastest time. Even then, he would only form up on the grid in seventh place following a grid penalty for a change of internal combustion engine.

That came on the advice of Honda. In the short term, the team felt it was picking the “least bad” circuit left on the calendar to mount a recovery from the midpack. In the longer term, that expanded pool of parts might just pay off later in the year should unreliability rear its head.

As soft-tyre starter Leclerc launched well from pole to keep an artificially promoted George Russell at arm’s length into the opening right-left, Verstappen was already matching the mesmeric first-lap gains that had given him the win at Spa a fortnight earlier.

Verstappen went from seventh to second over the opening five laps

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

His cause was helped by third-starting Lando Norris pulling away in the wrong setting to trigger an anti-stall, while Fernando Alonso and the allied AlphaTauri of Pierre Gasly unsurprisingly offered little resistance. Verstappen kept putting his stickier C4 red-walled Pirellis to good use to pass the medium-starters ahead as 2021 Italian GP victor Daniel Ricciardo was soon relieved of third place under braking into the first chicane. It looked little more than easy pickings for the Dutch racer, who was now trailing Leclerc by just one Mercedes W13 and 2.6s after two of the 53 laps.

Leclerc and Verstappen traded early fastest laps over the timing line, the packed 337,000 partisan weekend crowd cheering the red-and-yellow Ferrari through each corner. But the gap was beginning to go in only one direction. On lap five, Verstappen nailed his exit out of Ascari to close on Russell and then punishingly combined DRS and the limited effects of the tow in 2022 to sail cleanly past the Briton for second place down the main straight. It was now a clear fight for the win between the two main protagonists of the season.

Verstappen’s assessment of the opening gambit was: “Of course, it helped a lot that I had a great first lap, and I could clear most of the cars before they got into a DRS train. You never know what is going to happen before Turn 1, right. But it worked out really well for me.”

"We [still] believe it was the right decision [to pit Leclerc] when the [virtual] safety car came out. We knew that Charles had good pace, but Max got better tyre degradation, and he was already faster" Mattia Binotto

Verstappen kept nibbling a tenth and a bit out of Leclerc’s cushion per tour until the lap counter hit double figures. Then 12th-running Vettel pulled up by a gap in the barrier on the exit of the second Lesmo with an ERS failure to mark the end of his final European F1 race. But despite the considerate parking, yellow flags morphed into a virtual safety car. Once again, and quite by accident, Vettel would help Verstappen to his victory.

The neutralised pace was only called into action after Leclerc and Verstappen had crossed the timing line. But one slow circuit later, Leclerc dived in for a pitstop. The Red Bull crew, having been prepared to welcome Verstappen, decided to stand down and do the opposite of their rivals as they watched the F1-75 shed its soft rubber for mediums in 2.2s. However, the full effect of stopping under the VSC was not realised as the green flags were waved as Leclerc trundled down the pitlane and he rejoined in third with 18s to find.

Given that all the pre-race simulations had returned a one-stop proposal, Ferrari was already committing to a maverick strategy. One trade-off for its lower-downforce configuration, in addition to a twitchy looking car, was degradation being a touch exaggerated compared to the more settled RB18s. As such, a second tyre change then became inevitable.

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari F1-75, makes a pit stop

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

But while the decisions from the Scuderia pitwall have repeatedly and justifiably come under so much heavy fire this season, this time team boss Mattia Binotto’s now customary defence to the media was backed up by his opposite number. Christian Horner reckoned the red team had made a “fine call” and he understood why Ferrari had let go of track position.

Binotto further justified it by saying: “In hindsight, we [still] believe it was the right decision when the [virtual] safety car came out at that time of the race. We knew that Charles had good pace, but Max got better tyre degradation, and he was already faster for us.

“Staying on the simple same strategy of him, one-stop, he would have beat us sooner or later. The only chance for us was somehow to move strategy and to stop and not staying on one and pitting at the time of the VSC.

“We have been a bit unlucky because the VSC ended while we were still in the pitlane, so we were not getting all the potential benefit. Having said that, I think of one more note that is interesting. Red Bull were ready in the pitlane so they decided simply [to do the] opposite to us and would have probably likely pitted if we would have stayed out.”

To ram home why Ferrari would have to stop again, Verstappen was once again a light touch with his tyres. He was able to nurse the now-ageing softs but, crucially, this came while maintaining respectable pace. He could lap a sustainable half a second slower than Leclerc to hold 10s over Russell as the Ferrari trailed by a further 4s.

The Silver Arrow would eventually pit before Red Bull finally called time on Verstappen’s first stint on lap 25. Once he had put some heat into his new yellow-walled C4s and thanks to a sound 2.4s service, there was barely 9s to find to Leclerc. With the Monegasque still a certainty to stop again, the win was now heading firmly in Verstappen’s direction with more than half the GP still to run.

But not content to wait and let the afternoon play out, Verstappen turned up the wick to slash the gap by nearly 0.8s per lap as the interval dropped all the way down to 5.4s before Ferrari reacted 20 tours from home. Leclerc was called in again on lap 33 for some shiny fresh softs to leave him on the quicker rubber for a run to the flag. His pace, initially at least, might have best been described as subdued because Leclerc could only find three or four tenths a lap on Verstappen, who was by now running with eight-lap older boots.

This was beginning to seem like a foregone conclusion. Leclerc had pitted twice, Verstappen only once. Verstappen had track position; while Leclerc could not find enough of a speed advantage to reel in the Red Bull in time, let alone make a play for the victory with a late lunge.

Verstappen held a comfortable advantage at the front with his superior pace and tyre conservation

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

But then a potential spanner was thrown. Ricciardo, shortly after being passed by team-mate Norris, was forced to stop suddenly on the approach to the second Lesmo on lap 46. His McLaren MCL36 had cried mercy after springing an oil leak. But with the car stuck in gear and no nearby gap in the fence to allow for a quick recovery, the full safety car was called out.

In anticipation of a Silverstone or Zandvoort-type sprint finish, both Verstappen and Leclerc bolted for the pits for a final dash on softs. However, the field was by now well spread out. Not helping matters, the safety car collected third-placed Russell instead as the top two respected a minimum lap time delta. And when the lead duo were finally shuffled towards the front, they were still split by the lapped cars of Valtteri Bottas and Yuki Tsunoda.

As such, and amid much controversy, the green flags would not be waved for a final time. Verstappen crossed the line in neutralised conditions to claim his 31st grand prix victory, fifth in succession, 11th of the season and the first of his career at Monza.

"I'm here to try and win the race, which I’ve done. Some people, they can’t appreciate that. But that's because they're very passionate fans of a different team. It's not going to spoil my day" Max Verstappen

Reflecting on the run of form, he said: “It's amazing what we are experiencing within the team. We are having an amazing year. And it's important to enjoy it as well. I think we've had a lot of different challenges on different kinds of tracks and now the car really seems to work at every track. We are extremely pleased.”

The ending made for a damp squib, no doubt. But with memories of the acrimony from the 2021 Abu Dhabi title decider still fresh in the memory, the FIA reckoned they had applied the letter of the law. No ‘any or all’ lapped cars ambiguity this time. The governing body issued an explanation of the final six laps that read: “While every effort was made to recover [Ricciardo’s car] quickly and resume racing, the situation developed, and marshals were unable to put the car into neutral and push it into the escape road.

“As the safety of the recovery operation is our only priority, and the incident was not significant enough to require a red flag, the race ended under the safety car following the procedures agreed between the FIA and all competitors. The timing of the safety car period within a race has no bearing on this procedure.”

The absence of a sporting showstopper left paying spectators feeling short-changed, even if the rules had been properly applied. Regardless, a chorus of boos soon rang out when, through the red flare smoke, Verstappen took to the podium that hangs over the pitstraight.

The victor reckoned: “At the end of the day, I'm here to try and win the race, which I’ve done. Some people, of course, they can’t appreciate that. But that's because they're very passionate fans of a different team. And this is what it is. It's not going to spoil my day. I'm just enjoying the moment.” However, the jeers might have equally been directed at the FIA, so reckoned Binotto.

The safety car incorrectly picked up George Russell, running in third, rather than Verstappen in the lead which delayed a potential restart

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

Should the race have restarted, what might have awaited? Both drivers were on softs, but Verstappen’s were spanking new, and Leclerc’s scrubbed. Further, Ferrari had freely admitted the decision to pit under the Vettel-induced virtual safety was the only plausible way of offering a sustained threat to the quicker RB18.

Leclerc toed the party line on that point, adding: “If today was a clear mistake, I don't think so because it was just our choice and looking back at it, you just cannot predict whenever the VSC is going to end. If I was not stopping, Max will have pitted, and he will have had the same problem as I did. So, nothing to blame on anybody there. Just a little bit unlucky, and probably missing a little bit of pace too.”

Then, at least in 2022, there’s a shortage of evidence to suggest that Verstappen would have dropped the ball in a wheel-to-wheel fight. So, talk of Leclerc being robbed might be a little optimistic. But, perhaps perversely given the way in which the weekend unfolded, Ferrari’s lower downforce tune might have combined with a late tow just enough to propel Leclerc past for the win.

That will remain an unknown. Much more predictable, however, was Leclerc saying he “really wanted for this race to start again”. Verstappen, meanwhile, called it “very unfortunate” but reckoned he wasn’t too worried thanks to his tyre situation should a one-lap shootout have commenced. Either way, both drivers and their respective team bosses agreed that this had been an anti-climax.

And perhaps the same is now true of the entire 2022 season. Verstappen can, at least mathematically, wrap up the crown next time out in Singapore. That is not only incredible but shows the combined ill-effects of Ferrari’s unreliability, poor pitstops, questionable strategy and a blunder or two from Leclerc – none of which were particularly on show at Monza.

It also highlights the strides forward that Red Bull has made in developing the car. They, by contrast, were plain to see. The RB18 is now known to be running under the weight limit. That enables the mass to be repositioned to best suit Verstappen’s pointy driving style.

And in turn, that gave Verstappen the comfort he needed to be bold and wade into battle without the top-speed prowess that Monza so often encourages. Yet he could still come away with the spoils of glory as he chases after a rapid-fire second world title, much like Vettel did over a decade ago.

Verstappen can wrap up the 2022 F1 drivers' title in Singapore if results go his way

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool