Why the growing pains of F1’s cost-cap era require patience

Here’s a sobering statistic to slap you around the face: the top four teams have scored 92% of the available points from the opening five Formula 1 races of the season. The flip side of that statistic is that each of the bottom sextet of teams has been privy to the same maximum budget, the same regulations, and have mustered just 8% of the points on offer in 2023.

Out of context, the four-way domination of the upper echelons in the points presents a bleak picture, but it’s not much of a surprise given how things have been on track. With modern ultra-reliability and four teams exerting their hegemony on this year’s championship, it effectively means that the top eight points places are effectively spoken for barring any bursts of misfortune. That gives the rest of the grid the scraps to fight over.

To the victor go the spoils; to the rest, the dregs.

In the late 2010s, people liked to split the grid into “Class A” and “Class B” - or refer to the latter as Formula 1.5 in some corners. Mercedes, Ferrari, and Red Bull were locked into the upper class, and the rest did battle over the remaining points available. It was largely the same from about 2013-2022, barring the odd season in which one of the three teams would go off the boil until a fourth team joined the triumvirate at the top of the table.

Aston Martin’s emergence as a genuine force in 2023 has been one of the few intriguing factors of the season so far, the others being Australia’s late-race restart and ivory-tickler Charles Leclerc’s commitment to appearing on a “Peaceful Piano” playlist on Spotify (and all power to him, the world should always welcome more creativity). Digression aside, for a team to connect the dots between the midfield and the upper ranks is something that should be commended – but it creates an awkward situation in the interim.

With Red Bull on its own at the front, and Aston Martin joining Mercedes and Ferrari just behind them, there’s a three-tier system currently at play. That leaves the “Class C” group of McLaren, Alpine, Haas, Alfa Romeo, AlphaTauri, and Williams to duke it out for the three points left on offer – assuming one of the Red Bulls has wrapped up the fastest lap point.

Given how close the field spread is this season, it seems almost perverse that three-fifths of the grid has only a combined total of 45 points. But that’s not necessarily an indictment of how current F1 has ended up, as Aston Martin has shown that the chasm between the front and the rear of the pack can be bridged. It’s just a case of some teams doing a better job than others.

Aston Martin’s emergence as a genuine force in 2023 has been one of the few intriguing factors of the season so far

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

As the seasons go on with the current era of technical regulations and cost cap, the gaps will continue to shrink. For some of the teams who have so far struggled, the penny will eventually drop and offer an Aston Martin-like leap into the thick of the battle. Red Bull’s domination won’t continue indefinitely and, hopefully, each of the teams on the grid will have a much more even chance of scoring points on a given weekend.

Of those looking to make the jump to the front, McLaren needs its new wind tunnel to bear fruit as soon as it comes online, while Alpine needs to shake off any internal conflict at management level. Alfa Romeo, which will cease to operate under the Italian manufacturer’s name next year as it reverts to plain old Sauber, needs Audi to expand its support ahead of the full 2026 rebrand.

The other three – Haas, AlphaTauri, and Williams – are relying a bit more on having more aerodynamic testing time to catch up, and they eventually will. James Vowles’ installation as team principal at Williams will have offered a fresh perspective and illuminate the weaknesses that linger from its nadir a few seasons ago, as it continues its slow-burn recovery.

Given how close the field spread is this season, it seems almost perverse that three-fifths of the grid has only a combined total of 45 points

It’s up to those six teams caught battling for the meagre rewards from ninth and tenth places to cross the Rubicon, as the sliding aerodynamic testing scale and cost cap cannot be solely relied on to peg the front-runners back. If all six outfits make that progression simultaneously, then that’s great for Formula 1, especially if Red Bull falls back into the clutches of the trio of teams behind it. But it’s unlikely that this will occur, unless development suddenly plateaus off and enfranchises the teams to push forward together.

But even if the midfielders don’t catch up, would that constitute as a failure for the cost cap regulations? Perhaps, but more glaringly, it would be the lack of genuine competition to Red Bull should it persist into the next few years.

History shows that it’s possible for the other front-runners to make a move. In 2002, Ferrari scored 50% of all points awarded over the year; in other words, it scored as many as every other team put together. For reference, Red Bull is currently at 41% of the overall haul in 2023. The following year, the Scuderia threatened to be superseded by the improved form of Williams and McLaren; although the points system had changed to include the top eight, Ferrari’s total was still nonetheless dwarfed by its 2002 tally.

There was still a distinct top four in the running order with the improved fortunes of Renault, and the quartet still scored 85% of the points, but there were very realistic chances for all four teams to win races, and they all did at least once. Even the most ardent Max Verstappen fan would struggle to make the case that F1 is not enhanced by greater – or indeed, any – competition. It’s almost perverse that F1 has swollen in popularity over the past few seasons, despite going through some of its most flagrant periods of dominance over the past decade.

There’s no doubt the cost cap and aero testing rules will eventually bring the frontrunners together and ensure that title battles are considerably less one-dimensional compared to the majority of those over the past few years. But it might just take a little longer than one hoped...

Red Bull is currently at 41% of the overall points haul in 2023

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images