Why Red Bull's hopes of domination are real

Something very unusual happened in the Singapore Grand Prix paddock after Friday practice. A Red Bull driver suggested a dominant weekend was the objective, which is unheard of nowadays.

You have to go back to 2013 for the last time a Red Bull driver could say that with a straight face, the year before the man in question - Daniel Ricciardo - took over Mark Webber's seat at the team.

As Ricciardo said: "a dominant weekend is what I'm after". So the question is whether what happened during Friday practice beyond the headline times supported that possibility? And the answer is yes. At least, as far as Friday performance goes with all the usual caveats of fuel loads and the potential for teams to turn things around overnight.

Looking at the fastest lap times of the day, Red Bull appeared to be in a class of its own. Ricciardo, who from trackside looked at his silky-smooth best and able to carry prodigious speed into the slow corners, set the pace in free practice two.

His time was seven tenths of a second quicker than the best non-Red Bull, Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.

There is no doubt that the Red Bull is giving Ricciardo and Max Verstappen something very close to what they want around the streets, and the team's reward is two very committed drivers.

Pure pace ranking

1. Red Bull (Ricciardo) 1m40.852s
2. Mercedes (Hamilton) 1m41.555s
3. Renault (Hulkenberg) 1m42.448s
4. McLaren (Vandoorne) 1m42.501s
5. Force India (Perez) 1m42.826s
6. Ferrari (Raikkonen) 1m42.835s
7. Toro Rosso (Sainz) 1m43.236s
8. Williams (Massa) 1m43.836s
9. Haas (Magnussen) 1m44.417s
10. Sauber (Wehrlein) 1m45.673s

But what of Ferrari? Sebastian Vettel's brush with the wall during the second session prevented him from setting a representative lap time. With Kimi Raikkonen looking tentative on turn-in from trackside and saying the balance wasn't right there, his fastest time didn't really show what the Ferrari might be capable of either.

It's when you look further down the timesheets that things get more strange

Even being generous, it's hard to see a Vettel lap in a hooked-up Ferrari threatening that Red Bull pace. But Ferrari being up there with Mercedes or ahead is perfectly plausible.

The one definitive conclusion is that, yes, the Red Bull is looking seriously fast both on a single lap time, and to the naked eye from trackside watching in different locations.

But headline times are less relevant than long-run times during Friday practice. The picture here is murkier but there is one emphatic conclusion - namely that the Red Bull is quick.

Looking at a six-lap sample set, with anomalous laps discounted, on the ultra-softs that much of the long-run work was done on, and Red Bull's advantage of around seven tenths still stands.

What is perhaps even more impressive is that Ricciardo did a run of 15 counting laps on ultra-softs in which the average only dropped a further three tenths - at an average of 1m46.637s. So that is a sustainable pace. No other driver did a run of that length and consistency. Another tick in the potential dominance box.

Long-run ranking (ultra-softs)

1. Red Bull (Ricciardo) 1m46.313
2. Renault (Hulkenberg) 1m47.010s
3. Mercedes (Hamilton) 1m47.165s
4. Force India (Perez) 1m47.224s
5. Ferrari (Raikkonen) 1m47.275s
6. McLaren (Vandoorne) 1m48.435s
7. Toro Rosso (Sainz) 1m48.680s
8. Haas (Magnussen) 1m48.932s
9. Williams (Stroll) 1m49.209s*
10. Sauber (Wehrlein) 1m50.022s*
* Based over three-lap and five-lap runs

It's when you look further down the timesheets that things get more strange. Nico Hulkenberg's Renault was extremely fast, so much so that it puts the Enstone team up to second place in this adjusted ranking and ahead of Mercedes. Ferrari, meanwhile, lies down in fifth.

Is Renault second fastest? Almost certainly not, so it seems reasonable to assume both Mercedes and Ferrari should, come Sunday, be ahead of it. The question is, how close will that put them to Red Bull?

Again, we have to heavily caveat any read on Ferrari's pace. Vettel didn't do serious long-run work on the ultra-softs after his brush with the wall and instead used the softs. Hamilton also did a long run on softs, in which he was seven-tenths per lap faster over a five-lap sample. So there's no encouragement for Ferrari there.

More interestingly, Hamilton's pace using the soft-compound Pirellis over those five laps was less than a tenth off Ricciardo's on ultra-softs. But that's not to say the Mercedes is actually way quicker, and there's no read on the comparative Red Bull pace on that tyre.

As Pirelli's head of car racing Mario Isola pointed out, it's not unusual for Hamilton to find this kind of pace on the soft Pirellis - and it seems reasonable to assume that was run with a later-race (lighter) fuel load given Mercedes will be expecting to start on ultra-softs.

But given Hamilton has another set of fresh softs left that he could take into the race, it's worth keeping an eye on whether that pace could come into play on Sunday. Both Red Bull drivers also have a set, and Pirelli reckons super-soft and soft performance is not so different in Singapore based on Friday.

What it does hint at is that there is some performance to come for Mercedes on the ultra-soft rubber. Technical director James Allison suggested as much, and the fact Mercedes has the advantage when it comes to engine modes in qualifying could render Red Bull vulnerable on Saturday afternoon.

That, combined with the fact Ferrari should take a step forward on Saturday and show more representative pace, is the main cloud that hangs over Red Bull's ostensibly dominant position. Championship-wise, the most significant thing could end up being which of Mercedes and Ferrari is ahead of the other.

Form and track characteristics suggests Ferrari should be on for a good weekend in Singapore, but Friday's patchy information worked against that. Ideally, it would take a leap on Saturday, and have Red Bull beat Mercedes into fifth and sixth. Fanciful based on Friday, but there's enough unknowns for it not to be out of the question.

The other key weapon in Red Bull's armoury is that it has very little to lose. As Ricciardo said on Thursday, "we've fortunately got one [victory] this year - I believe we can win another". This could also come into play should there be a decision to be made between two or one stop.

If this is Red Bull's final shot at victory in 2017, the team and drivers need to pull off perfect performances

And that's about all that Red Bull has got to shoot for - one more victory to make the most of another trying year. Singapore is the best shot for that, and unlike the Mercedes and Ferrari drivers there is not a world championship at stake.

Pirelli suggests that, based on a degradation rate of around 0.15s per lap, a two-stop race is currently most likely. But Ricciardo's impressive run on the ultra-softs, combined with the fact the track should continue to improve, means the tyres could last longer come race day. If needed, Red Bull could play the split strategy card.

So Red Bull potentially has the single-lap pace to have a good shot at pole, even with the potency of the Mercedes qualifying mode. Even if Mercedes or Ferrari make inroads into its race pace advantage, it will take a big swing to knock it off its perch.

But there are no points or prizes for 'winning' Friday practice. Red Bull has slipped back before after a strong showing on Friday, so if this is its final shot of victory in 2017, the team and drivers need to ensure they deliver the perfect performances needed for anyone hoping to, as Ricciardo puts it, dominate.

Friday suggested Red Bull is seven tenths up the road. It surely won't be for the rest of the weekend. But if you accept the definition of a dominant weekend being taking pole and winning, then yes, Red Bull might just be able to pull it off.

Still if Mercedes and Ferrari make the gains that Friday hinted could be on the table, it could become a true three-way team fight.