Why Italian GP success is on for McLaren even if Verstappen dominates

After Friday evening qualifying at the 2021 Italian Grand Prix, Mercedes was in a crushingly dominant position.

Despite Red Bull possessing the fastest package of the season overall, Monza’s high-speed, straight-filled nature does not suit its high-rake aerodynamic car concept. The team has not won at this track since 2013 and even with a particularly potent 2021 Honda engine improving Red Bull’s form in the power stakes against Mercedes, a Max Verstappen victory in Sunday’s grand prix did not look likely.

Not only did he qualify 0.411s adrift of the ‘pole-winning’ time, but with Valtteri Bottas starting the sprint race ahead of Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes simply had to get through that event’s opening turns in that order to later enact a team orders swap, or with Hamilton already ahead.

But thanks to the world champion being “2mm too deep with the clutch paddle” and getting wheelspin, that scenario did not play out.

The need to fit Bottas’s car with a fresh engine ahead of ‘normal’ qualifying gave the Finn the edge on Hamilton – Mercedes confirming to Autosport it would have provided a small, if unquantifiable, performance benefit – as he finished 0.096s in front in Q3. But it means he will drop to the rear of the field for Sunday’s race. Verstappen, therefore, inherits pole position.

And suddenly Red Bull is in command on paper. Not only because Verstappen will line up from the head of the pack, but because Hamilton finished the sprint race 20.011s behind first place and both of the McLaren drivers.

Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes W12, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B, Daniel Ricciardo, McLaren MCL35M, Lando Norris, McLaren MCL35M, Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12, Pierre Gasly, AlphaTauri AT02, and the rest of the field at the start

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

The orange team was in impressive form at this race last year – it should’ve finished second and third on merit without the safety car and red flag randomness that led to Pierre Gasly’s eventual triumph for AlphaTauri in front of former McLaren racer Carlos Sainz Jr. And it is so again in 2021.

The Monza layout plays very well to McLaren’s strengths – excellent traction out of slow corners and very good straightline speed. This could be seen in the two races in Austria earlier this year.

And it was the case again in Friday qualifying in Italy, where both McLaren drivers featured towards the front of the speed trap figures – where DRS and the tow factor will always be important caveats to consider – and again at the measurement taken at the finish line. There, Lando Norris and Daniel Ricciardo were matched on 197.7mph in third and fourth in the order (only Nicholas Latifi and Fernando Alonso were faster there). Sergio Perez’s Red Bull wasn’t far behind on 197.5mph, but Verstappen and Hamilton were 1.5mph and 1.6mph down respectively.

"Against the Red Bull – if we can be ahead, considering I kept Hamilton behind and they were on pole by half a second to the Red Bulls, maybe we would have that little bit more of a chance compared to Max" Lando Norris

Norris insisted after he held Hamilton at bay throughout the sprint race that “I don't know why everyone thinks we are always quickest on the straight”, but the fact the Mercedes couldn’t find a way by even with DRS was of course significant.

Norris was running in the 4s tow sweetspot at Monza – where the car ahead leaves a nice hole in the air on the straights but dirty air doesn’t overly impact downforce levels through the corners – behind Ricciardo. But McLaren’s result on Saturday provided significant insight into how Sunday’s proceedings may well play out.

Assuming there is no first corner chaos (more on that later), McLaren should have every reason to expect it can keep Hamilton behind through the first stint for the reasons just outlined.

And, in a not totally unrealistic scenario, if either Ricciardo or Norris – or both – can get ahead of Verstappen off the line or on the run through the opening turns, there’s the possibility they could keep the Red Bull behind as well.

Daniel Ricciardo, McLaren, 3rd position, and Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing, 2nd position, talk in Parc Ferme after Sprint Qualifying

Photo by: Jerry Andre / Motorsport Images

If that doesn’t happen though, Verstappen is likely to run clear – his average pace in the sprint race working out 0.773s a lap quicker than Ricciardo, albeit with a tyre compound difference of running mediums versus softs (which were key to the McLarens being able to take advantage of Hamilton’s poor start).

“We are just competitive on the straights, [but] we run quite a low downforce compared to a lot of people,” Norris said on Saturday evening. “And against the Red Bull – if we can be ahead, considering I kept Hamilton behind and they were on pole by half a second to the Red Bulls, maybe we would have that little bit more of a chance compared to Max.

“There is that chance and Perez didn't drive through the whole pack [in the sprint race] and got stuck behind [Alfa Romeo’s Antonio] Giovinazzi. So, there's a chance for sure.”

It’s at the pitstops where things could get more tough for McLaren.

“Yes, there's a chance to keep both the cars behind,” team principal Andreas Seidl said after the sprint event. “It is a long race and we have seen today that with the stint length, the longer the stint the Red Bull and Mercedes have an advantage in terms of tyre degradation and so it will be very important to work out [our strategy].”

In the race-run data logged in FP2 – where the locked-in set-ups thanks to the sprint weekend timetable means times should be viewed with even more wariness than usual – Mercedes had a clear advantage over Red Bull and a big one over McLaren.

On a 12-lap stint on the softs, the Black Arrows squad edged Red Bull by 0.048s – Verstappen completing eight laps and so likely fuelled less. McLaren’s 12-lap stint best average on the same compound came in 2.434s slower.

Lando Norris, McLaren MCL35M

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Then there’s the tyre management factor for Sunday’s race. The teams than ran the softs in the sprint race reported that the degradation on the red-walled tyres was less than expected – but the race was also less intense thanks to the safety car laps that followed Gasly’s Curva Grande crash and it being only 18-laps long meant the cars were fuelled correspondingly. With full tanks, the drivers will have to work harder to keep the rubber in shape.

And tyre management is where Hamilton is king. So, although his title rival might romp clear in the lead from pole, there’s every chance the pitstop phase will give Mercedes the chance to get ahead of one or both of the McLarens.

“We'll have a look at strategic options for Lewis, but the reality is that if we struggled to overtake the McLarens [in the sprint race] we'll face the same situation and that's going to hand Max a very easy win,” said Mercedes’ director of trackside engineering, Andrew Shovlin.

"For the start, I think we can attack and try to go for glory" Daniel Ricciardo

“We need to look at every possible opportunity as it's our job to make sure that doesn't happen, and it can often be an eventful race here, but we can't afford to drop back in the first stint at the rate we did [on Saturday].”

Pirelli reckons the quickest strategy for Sunday’s race – where the sprint race weekend format rules mean all teams have free choice over what tyres to start on and are not bound by what their drivers ran in Q2 – is to start on the mediums and move onto the softs between laps 27-33.

But medium-hard is thought to be pretty much just as quick, albeit with a much earlier stop, and that approach offers less risk of the softs giving up towards the end. That makes it more likely Red Bull and Mercedes will opt for it. But McLaren could yet choose to start on the softs in a bid to get one of its cars ahead at the first corner.

And this is a key consideration for what F1 is about to witness.

Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes W12, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B, and Daniel Ricciardo, McLaren MCL35M

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

After ending up 0.029s adrift of a third place start for the sprint race thanks to time lost at the second chicane on his final lap in Q3, Ricciardo told Autosport he was feeling “internal rage” that he planned to use to “to make up time and make up ground” in the Monza weekend’s two race starts.

“I would say I used some of that today and I will use the rest of it tomorrow,” he said in the press conference after the sprint race. “That’s all. I’m hungry, it’s been a long time since I’ve been up in this position [speaking to the media after finishing a ‘race’ in the top three], so obviously yeah I just want to be back here and never leave.”

Ricciardo later added: “We'll see what can happen at the start. I think obviously there's a potential chance to lead the race, so obviously we'll try to do that and then figure out the next 50 laps after that.

“I'm pretty confident, or positive going into [the race], so I think we can definitely shake things up a little. I think more of the challenge is the pitstop. The pitstop window, that's where potentially the faster cars have a chance to stretch their legs or get some clean air, so that's maybe the part of the race. We have to watch.

“But for the start, I think we can attack and try to go for glory.”

So, even if Ricciardo or Norris leave the opening corners in the same position they will line up on the grid this afternoon, McLaren is set to play a pivotal role in the 2021 Italian GP.

Daniel Ricciardo, McLaren, with Andreas Seidl, Team Principal, McLaren

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images