Why history risks repeating itself for Mercedes' star F1 junior

It is rare for Formula 1 to get this far into the season with so many questions still hanging over next year's driver market.

But as we get close to the end of October, silly season remains in full swing, with the latest jolts coming in the days leading up to the Portuguese Grand Prix.

Confirmation that Haas would be racing with an all-new line-up in 2021 had been expected for some time, but arrived on Thursday as both Kevin Magnussen and Romain Grosjean announced their upcoming departures.

But the bigger twist in the market concerned a team that had been one of the earliest in initially firming up its plans for next year.

Williams may have said back in July that it would be racing with an unchanged line-up in 2021, retaining George Russell and Nicholas Latifi, but fresh uncertainty arrived shortly before the paddock arrived in Portimao as it emerged that contact had been made with Sergio Perez regarding a drive for next year.

With Russell seemingly the man who would be put on the sidelines if Perez were to land a seat, there is a risk of history repeating itself for the leading light of Mercedes' F1 junior roster.

Perez has been a highly attractive free agent ever since his long-rumoured exit from Racing Point was announced in September, making way for Sebastian Vettel to join the team. With an impressive track record in F1 and a raft of sponsors from Mexico, the eight-time podium finisher looked like a decent fit for either Haas or Alfa Romeo.

PLUS: Has Racing Point done the right thing in ditching Perez?

Yet the market has moved so quickly in recent weeks that neither team now looks like a realistic option. Kimi Raikkonen is set to extend his time in F1 with Alfa Romeo by signing another one-year contract, while Ferrari youngster Antonio Giovinazzi is closing on a reprieve after a decent run of form of late.

At Haas, an all-rookie line-up is anticipated, with Formula 2 driver Nikita Mazepin expected to snap up a seat alongside another Ferrari junior, most likely to be Mick Schumacher.

PLUS: In his own words: The secret to Raikkonen's F1 longevity

It has left Perez with few alternative options. Red Bull has now said it would look outside of its existing driver pool were it to drop Alexander Albon for 2021, making either Perez or Nico Hulkenberg the most likely candidates. Were a Red Bull deal not to come off, though, then Williams is Perez's only real option to stay in F1 next year.

It's an option that did not exist 10 weeks ago when Williams announced at Silverstone that Russell and Latifi would be staying for another year, with Russell seeing out the third and final year of the contract he signed back in 2019.

"I'm sure any air will be cleared, but I am not concerned. I will be on the grid next year with Williams" George Russell

But that was before the change in ownership, with the takeover by Dorilton Capital in September opening the door for some potential changes. A wide-reaching review of Williams' structure is in full swing, stretching as far as the driver line-up.

As impressive as Russell has been, his commercial case is far weaker than both Perez and Latifi. He brings no backing to the team, nor is he really going to be at Williams in the long-term. After all, Mercedes see him as a future Mercedes driver, not a future Williams driver, hence his place on its junior books. Should Dorilton want to commit to a driver who can be part of its long-term project and bring financial backing, then Perez - who is hardly much, if any, of a downgrade in terms of ability - would fit the bill nicely.

Russell was quick to bat away suggestions his future may be in doubt on Thursday in Portugal. He said he had "no concerns" about next year, adding: "Nothing has changed whatsoever, from a contractual perspective under new ownership.

"I've actually not spoken to the new owners about it, because from my side, there are no concerns. They'll all be here this weekend. I'm sure any air will be cleared, but I am not concerned. I will be on the grid next year with Williams."

Similar confidence was, of course, shown by Perez over his Racing Point future beyond 2020, and look how that ended.

Acting Williams team principal Simon Roberts featured in Friday's FIA press conference, and was adamant he did not want to contribute to speculation about the driver line-up.

"Nothing has changed," he said. "There's lot of speculation, there's lots of good drivers around that are now looking for seats. Dorilton bought the team, and nothing changed. I can't say any more than that."

But when asked if he could confirm Russell and Latifi would remain with the team for 2021, Roberts replied: "I'm not going to say anything about either of our drivers, they've both done a great job.

"There's so much speculation around. I don't want to inadvertently fuel it - someone will take some nuance of what I say." Ironically, what he said only did further fuel speculation that Russell may be at risk for 2021.

Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff then spoke on Friday evening about Russell's future, confirming contact had been made with Williams to discuss the matter. He was fairly matter-of-fact, acknowledging it was out of his hands.

"At the end, it's Williams' decision," Wolff said. "We all know about George's capabilities. He's a star of the future, and remains unbeaten by his team-mates in Formula 1 [in qualifying]. Sometimes he is able to show highlights in a car that is not competitive at the moment, and I think he's a great team asset.

"But then obviously there is a financial reality that I cannot judge at all. It's absolutely the discretion of the new owners and Simon to decide what they want to do going forward."

On Saturday, Russell turned in yet another stellar display in qualifying to reach Q2 for the seventh time this season, pulling out a stunning final lap in Q1 to dump Raikkonen out. He eventually qualified 14th, beating Vettel's Ferrari, acting as a timely reminder of his quality.

As Wolff said, though, such quality is not something that can override the financial reality and considerations that teams such as Williams face. Sometimes, the driver market works against those who are fully deserving of a place on the grid.

It is a hardship Wolff and Mercedes previously encountered with Esteban Ocon back in 2018. As the leading member of Mercedes' junior programme, Ocon was impressing with Force India, and hot property in the driver market. He had offers from both Renault and McLaren on the table for 2019, and opted to pursue the opening at Renault.

McLaren moved to draft in Carlos Sainz Jr, meaning that when Renault pulled off its coup to sign Daniel Ricciardo - much to its own surprise - Ocon missed out on both seats. The subsequent collapse of Force India led to Lawrence Stroll's takeover and the arrival of his son, Lance, as Perez's team-mate - meaning Ocon was without any drive.

"There's nothing to say bad about him, about what he is doing. It would be not justified for him to not be on the grid next year" Esteban Ocon

Wolff was left angry at the time, feeling Renault had gone back on its agreement to give Ocon a drive. The Frenchman spent a year on the sidelines as Mercedes' reserve driver, gearing himself up for a racing return in 2020, when he finally landed a Renault drive on a two-year deal.

It was a case study of a driver whose talent warranted a place on the F1 grid, only for circumstances outside both his and his team's control to deny him a drive - and a timely reminder of the harsh nature of the F1 driver market. The same would be true for Russell were he to lose his seat.

"It is definitely a difficult thing," said Ocon when reflecting on the situation in 2018. "I'm just reading the press, so I'm not really aware of what is happening, but I really hope that George can stay in Formula 1.

"Performance-wise, he's doing an excellent job in that Williams. He's doing the best he can. There's nothing to say bad about him, about what he is doing. It would be not justified for him to not be on the grid next year.

"But that's how Formula 1 is. It can be cruel sometimes. I've paid the price at the end of 2018, and for 2019. I hope this won't be the case for him."

Ocon spent a year in the background with Mercedes, whose support for him never wavered. Wolff publicly agonised over whether or not to promote him into the seat held by Valtteri Bottas for 2020, but eventually stuck with the Finn, allowing Ocon to link up with Renault. The support from Mercedes is something Ocon was thankful for during his year out.

"Without the support of Mercedes, I would not be where I am today," he said. "It's been the support for years, since my junior career. For sure I would not be here today.

"Let's not say that [Russell] will be out. I don't know what is going to happen. On a normal performance judgement, which is always what we want to judge, he should be on the grid next year."

Wolff is acutely aware that performance is not the only parameter for deciding on who to sign, though, and was seemingly accepting of that when discussing Russell's future at further length on Saturday.

"I totally respect the independence of Williams, like any other team, and they need to make their decisions," Wolff said.

"Sometimes it is financial decisions that take priority over sporting decisions and sometimes even the sporting decisions need to be balanced, as it is not always clear-cut so no it would not damage the relationship. It would be disappointing, but I would get over it."

The experience of Ocon slipping through the cracks of the driver market in 2018 can give Mercedes some heart. Even if Russell were to be sidelined due to circumstances out of his control, the team would know what to do with him.

"If George were to slip through the system, I'd be happy to take him in our squad as we would have a sensational reserve," Wolff said boldly.

"I would put him through a mega testing programme, and prepare him in the best way for a 2022 blast."

Quite who that 2022 blast would be with, though, is difficult to see. The plan may be for Russell to one day pilot a Mercedes - much as it is for Ocon - but the Hamilton/Bottas partnership shows few signs of deteriorating. The team will wrap up a seventh set of titles within the next month, and surely starts 2021 as the overwhelming favourite to continue that streak.

As impressive as Russell has been with Williams, the case to put him into a Mercedes for 2022 after a year out would be tricky to make. He is still yet to score a point in F1, and has seen a couple of opportunities - such as Hockenheim 2019, and Mugello this year - slip through his fingers.

But like with Ocon, Russell's stock would not take any kind of hit were he to fall off the grid for 2021. He has done enough in his short time in F1 to prove he is a future star and worthy of his place among the top 20 drivers in the world. Even if he was forced to take a year out, he would be at the front of the queue to get back in a seat the following year should an opportunity arise.

As Ocon said, the F1 driver market can be cruel. But his path back should give Russell plenty of reasons to be hopeful of what his future may hold, even if he were to unjustly be left without a drive in 2021.