Can Ducati end Aprilia's MotoGP winning streak at the Spanish GP?

'Wait for Jerez,' said many a paddock sage after Aprilia's Marco Bezzecchi led every lap of the first three grands prix of the season, extending the marque's run of MotoGP wins to five. It was too soon to write off Ducati when the European meat of the championship had yet to begin, went the theory.

Others responded by suggesting that the 'Hang on until Europe' line was a worn cliche, rooted in a time before masses of data could be transported between places as far flung as Thailand, Brazil and Bologna. Ducati wasn't sitting on its hands just because of a few long-haul flights. Aprilia's advantage was real. It transcended continents.

Whatever side of the debate you were on, circuit form at Jerez could only be taken into account so much. Ducati is unbeaten there since Fabio Quartararo's pandemic double in 2020 - but Ducati has dominated at a lot of places in that time. Aprilia has little to show for its past trips to Andalucia, but it is only in recent months that the Noale marque has made itself a bike that works just about everywhere.

Perhaps more relevant was the fact that factory Aprilia riders Jorge Martin and Bezzecchi didn't have a much better record at the track than their bikes did. Then again, Jerez is the circuit that bit lead factory Ducati man Marc Marquez back in 2020. Not even in his dominant 2025 season could he win there.

The Ducati-Aprilia duel at Jerez so far

And so to Friday, when the speculation could stop and fresh facts could begin to drown out the noise of history.

The first day's action, which was dry, had to go down as a pretty good one for Ducati. Alex Marquez seemed to have rediscovered his old self as he topped practice for Gresini, while Fabio Di Giannantonio kept up his good form with second-fastest time aboard the VR46 machine. Both factory bikes comfortably made Q2. Even Franco Morbidelli showed a few flickers of life by his recent standards.

Aprilia's Friday, by contrast, was middling. Bezzecchi was third in Practice, but a chunky half-second off the Alex Marquez pace. Martin fell off twice as he squeezed into Q2, muttered about technical issues and ended his day with news of a grid penalty for blocking Alex Marquez. On the positive side of the ledger, both Trackhouse bikes were in the top 10.

Aprilia had an indifferent start at Jerez on Friday, while Martin picked up a three-place grid drop for blocking Alex Marquez

Photo by: Gold and Goose Photography / LAT Images / via Getty Images

Middling Fridays are not unusual for Aprilia, but a Saturday washout is. If Aprilia wants to extend its winning streak, it will have to do so without chipping away at its task on the middle day of the weekend. With Sunday forecast to be bone dry, today's wet weather would thus appear to play into Ducati's hands.

On top of that, Aprilia may have more problems to overcome in Sunday's pipsqueak 10-minute warm-up than mere performance tweaks. Following his mystery technical problems on Friday, Martin retired from the sprint after one lap with an ominous glow coming from his front brake area. Bezzecchi, meanwhile, fell off in the wet part of the race because he couldn't get enough temperature in his brakes. There may be a few extra problems to ponder for the engineers in black.

Despite those four bikes getting straight into Q2, the way things shook out in that damp session don't help Aprilia's Sunday chances either. While Bezzecchi has shown that starting from the second row is no barrier to him winning in 2026, doing so may be tougher around the tight confines of Jerez. Particularly if Johann Zarco does a similar blocking job to that seen in the sprint, allowing one or more Ducatis to get away.

With Fernandez, Martin and Ogura starting eighth, ninth and 11th respectively, their chances of extending the Aprilia win streak on a dry day at Jerez don't look great. Realistically, it's on Bezzecchi. Ducati will certainly be winning the numbers game as the bikes line up on the grid.

One thing in the points leader's favour is that today's bad start is not expected to recur on Sunday. His slack getaway was pure bad luck: the Italian had a tear-off stuck beneath his tyre as the sprint got started.

That said, Bezzecchi is under no illusions about the dry-weather pecking order going into Sunday.

"Realistically there are at least three or four riders a little faster than me," he told Italian media. "Alex Marquez [leads the way], Marc is always fast...Diggia, Jorge and me, we are all similar. So it won't be easy. But we'll try to do better than today."

Alex Marquez appeared to have the race pace edge over the other Ducati riders in the dry

Photo by: Gold and Goose Photography / LAT Images / via Getty Images

Which Ducati rider is favourite?

Aprilia may be facing its greatest challenge of the nascent 2026 season on Sunday. But should a Ducati grab the win, which one is it most likely to be?

Few would have suggested Alex Marquez ahead of this weekend. The man himself laughed off the prospect of repeating his 2025 Jerez win when asked about it in the press conference on Thursday. And with good reason - he had yet to produce anything like that sort of form in the first three rounds of this year.

Forty-eight hours later, however, all the evidence points in that direction. Not only his pace-setting Friday, but also the speed with which he caught and passed his brother in the dry part of the sprint race. Disregarding today's wet-weather mishaps, he's looking like his old self again.

Some of that, incidentally, is down to the freedom of being an independent. Alex is running updates that the factory riders are only slated to try on Monday - and they appear very much to his liking. Who knows, his leap may have prompted the red Ducatis to try them too had Saturday been dry. As it is, though, the wet weather may help Alex keep that technical advantage into race day.

He will have to start from fifth place following a fall in the damp qualifying session, but he spoke confidently about his prospects for a dry Sunday. So too did his brother Marc, who famously went down while trying to keep up with Alex a year ago.

"It looks like it will be dry weather," said Marc. "And there, the favourite is Alex, because he's riding in a very good way. He's flowing everywhere. I mean, both left and right corners. Not only the right-handers, where he normally is faster than me, but also in the left-handers. [In those] he is the same or even faster than me. This weekend he's riding in a very good way."

Marc Marquez conceded luck played a part in his sprint race win and expects the grand prix to be an entirely different prospect

Photo by: Gold and Goose Photography / LAT Images / via Getty Images

Di Giannantonio, who will start second alongside Marc, is also due a grand prix win after his strong start to the season. His main concern is sorting out his starts, which have been a problem for him. But even given a good getaway and all the signs pointing in Ducati's favour, the Roman is wary of that rival Italian manufacturer.

He pointed to the pace of the factory bikes on old tyres on Friday morning, and knows you write off Aprilia on a Sunday at your peril.

"I'm always a bit worried about Aprilia, honestly, after the last races," he admitted as he mused over Sunday's prospects.

A healthy respect for your opposition is a good thing, of course. But Di Giannantonio also knows that every streak has to end sooner or later - and the Spanish Grand Prix offers Ducati an excellent chance to bring this one to a close.

Can Ducati end Aprilia's winning run?

Photo by: Jose Breton - Pics Action - NurPhoto - Getty Images