Why Ferrari had the Hungary strategy shocker that helped Verstappen to an unlikely win

When your two biggest rival teams laugh in derision at your strategy calls, clearly something critical has gone awry. That’s what occurred in the Hungaroring driver cooldown room last Sunday, as the podium finishers checked out the hastily edited highlights of the 70 laps not long concluded.

Runner-up Lewis Hamilton seemed a touch bemused when he clocked a moment in the video and had to check with Max Verstappen. “They were on the hards?”, he asked. The surprise victor tittered “Yeah” in reply as third-placed George Russell couldn’t entirely suppress a smile.

This top three came after a dry grand prix when there had been no full safety car to artificially bunch the pack. The Ferraris had started second and third while the Red Bulls lined up down in 10th and 11th, and with Verstappen having even spun. Yet Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc could only muster fourth and sixth at the finish line, which they crossed some 15 seconds after the Dutch ace – now the runaway championship leader heading into the summer break.

While results haven’t always gone its way, since 2010 the high-downforce requirements of the Budapest circuit’s 14 corners have suited Red Bull most of all. But coinciding with, if not directly related to, the switch to ground-effects for 2022, that (on paper) advantage stopped for this visit. The tighter corners dictate multiple bursts of low-speed acceleration and that now flatters the eager Ferrari engine over the long-legged rebadged Honda power unit nestling in the back of the RB18s.

Accordingly, the brace of F1-75s set the pace in both qualifying and race simulations across Friday practice - during which at no point did they run with the white-walled hard tyres. Verstappen reckoned: “[Ferrari] are a bit ahead of us… it will be hard for us to beat that”.

PLUS: The good fortune Red Bull needs to overthrow Hungary favourite Ferrari

Those Red Bull difficulties were compounded by a Q3 result that plonked six cars between a power-sapped Verstappen starting in 10th and the lowliest Ferrari of Leclerc, who led the second row.

Far more influential than it first appeared, on his way to the grid to take up that slot, Verstappen understeered off the road at Turn 2. Even on the softest available C4 Pirellis, he was struggling for grip.

Ferrari had favourable grid slots, but starting on the medium tyre boxed them into a corner later on

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

At that point, Red Bull twisted. Instead of sticking steadfast to the data, the strategy team led by Hannah Schmitz on the pitwall played the hand dealt by the conditions. Temperatures were cooler and the rain was threatening, so they listened to their driver and improvised. The original plan had been for the out-of-position RB18s – both sporting new power units – to start on hard tyres and run long, but the recce proved the track wasn’t ready for this.

Ferrari, meanwhile, had the polesitting Mercedes of Russell to focus on. The Scuderia’s sole focus was on winning. Leapfrogging the W13 was seen as the best way to inflict the most damage on Red Bull, rather than target the Austrian cars specifically with team orders to favour Leclerc.

But instead of splitting the strategies or putting both drivers on softs to immediately depose the Briton, they were to begin on the medium rubber.

Although soft-shod Russell had been put on a set of scrubbed boots, they still bit into the asphalt well to allow him to launch strongly. He headed closer to the pitwall to force Sainz onto the outside line into Turn 1 and, while the Ferrari was momentarily ahead, the Silver Arrow could pick up the throttle sooner out of the right-hander to consolidate first place.

Leclerc now looked increasingly likely to whittle away at his 63-point shortfall to Verstappen in the standings. Then the decision to start the Ferraris on the medium tyres showed another sign that it was backfiring

Partly influencing the decision to start Russell on softs was the threat of imminent rain, a prospect that left him “rubbing my hands together”. Showers enveloped most of the surrounding region but crucially, the 2.72 miles of Tarmac in the middle stayed dry. So, as Leclerc fell into formation behind Sainz, the red machines had to wait for Russell to chew through his more sensitive tyres.

That would have to wait until lap 12. The gap to the leader had climbed north of 2.5s – following a brief virtual safety car to clear debris after the four Williams and Aston Martin cars had clashed in separate incidents through Turn 2 on lap one. But as the lap counter hit the teens, Russell began to slip back into the clutches of the chasing Ferraris to the tune of six tenths per tour. Sainz and Leclerc ran nose to tail, the Spaniard belatedly improving his lap times to prevent the pitwall from swapping the order under pressure to intervene by Leclerc.

Although the boat had been missed at the start, again Ferrari could consider split strategies when Sainz was told to box at the end of lap 16. But he stayed out as Russell indeed darted in for his first stop. A delay ripping off the front-right wheel as he was swapped onto a set of mediums brought him out side-by-side with Fernando Alonso for sixth place, but the young gun smartly chopped around the outside of the Alpine through the Turn 2-3 transition to cement the position. Verstappen too slipped in for four new yellow-walled C3s.

Leclerc followed Sainz in the early stages of the race before the Spaniard pitted in response to Russell's stop

Photo by: Ferrari

Ferrari responded next time around. Sainz was called in to promote Leclerc into free air. Like France last time out, however, the car was slow to be released out the box as part of a 3.7s switch to mediums. Another crucial Ferrari pitstop fumbled in 2022, he returned to the track behind Alonso.

At least Leclerc remained in the lead, holding 11s over Hamilton – the seventh-starting seven-time champion blitzing both Alpines off the line – before the Mercedes was called in on lap 19.

Russell could therefore climb into second place but, with a 19s deficit to Leclerc, the Monegasque now looked increasingly likely to whittle away at his 63-point shortfall to Verstappen in the standings. Then the decision to start the Ferraris on the medium tyres showed another sign that it was backfiring.

The soft runners had made it 15 or so tours before the drop-off dictated pitting, but those wearing mediums were lucky to make it another eight times around. Leclerc was subsequently stopped at the end of lap 21 for a set of mediums to return Russell to the lead by 2.6s over the Ferrari chaser. Sainz sat a further 1s in arrears while champion Verstappen occupied fourth place 3.5s another back.

Bar the Alpines going rogue on a one-stop by fitting hard tyres plus the Haas cars dabbling with the C2s, everyone else was on the mediums at this stage. And with the field somewhat equalised, the F1-75’s affinity with the Hungaroring was on full display. Leclerc scythed up to Russell in double-quick time to gain DRS. Russell was forced to defend, again opting for the tactic of squeezing a Ferrari to the outside line wherever possible to maximise the distance it had to travel at the difficult-to-pass Budapest venue.

Then on lap 31, Leclerc made it stick. Russell had moved to the inside line into Turn 1 early to cover off the Ferrari but, with DRS, Leclerc tightly squeezed by into the braking zone for first.

Leclerc immediately pulled seven tenths on the Mercedes and doubled that gap over the rest of the lap, the advantage climbing further to 5s with Sainz in third and Verstappen fourth.

Then on lap 38, Verstappen made his final stop. Having started on used softs before switching to the mediums to make the one mandatory compound change, Schmitz could pick any of the three variety of Pirellis. She opted for another set of the yellow-walled rubber. Despite sparks flying from the right-rear corner, Verstappen was serviced in a rapid 2.4s. The undercut was on, driver encouraged with the radio message “there’s still a long way to go”.

Leclerc took the lead from Russell in his second stint before doomed switch to hard tyres

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

Verstappen came out in sixth as Russell made a second stop for mediums next time around. Leclerc would then visit the garage for a second time. With no possibility of nursing softs for the next 31 laps, here the decision to start on mediums was exposed further. The only way to make it to the flag without a totally unnecessary third pitstop would be on the hards.

However, the lap times from the Alpines and Haas cars over the preceding half an hour proved this was a particularly slow and unmalleable tyre. Leclerc reckoned: “I made it clear that the medium, I wanted to keep it as long as possible. But we pitted very early for the hard, which we need to understand why.”

The Ferrari rejoined in third behind Hamilton, who was stretching his mediums as far as they would go, and Sainz. But the slowest Pirellis were proving predictably obstinate when it came to generating temperature.

The Plans A to F that have been instructed over team radio this season shows Ferrari considers how several scenarios might play out. However, this was an unwillingness to blur the lines between the plans, instead hoping the race would unfold in such a way that perfectly fitted one of its pre-selected boxes

That left Leclerc vulnerable to Verstappen, spurred on by that earlier radio message. “I basically saw that Charles was struggling a lot on the hard tyre, so that was my moment to try and attack him,” Verstappen would say. “I was like, ‘This is my chance to go for it’.”

The RB18 duly popped open its DRS to depose Leclerc into Turn 1, with Verstappen shrewdly opening his steering a fraction at the apex to force Leclerc to compromise his line even further. Getting back on the power, the Ferrari stepped out of line as the hards again acted out to let Verstappen romp away.

But Leclerc was given a second chance, in between berating the concrete Pirellis over team radio. Verstappen was too early on the throttle out of the penultimate Turn 13 left-hander and the car swapped ends. This came amid complaints concerning the clutch beginning to burn out and troublesome upshifts. He spun up the rears and rotated to carry on his way but not before the Ferrari had streaked back past. At least the nearby Perez could limit the damage by stumbling across his team-mate, checking his pace and blocking Russell from nipping past.

But come the end of lap 44, three tours later, Verstappen was back within a second of his chief title rival. Having closed with DRS over the line, he squared off the apex at Turn 1 to jump on the throttle as the Ferrari broke traction yet again. That permitted Verstappen to power ahead on the run down to Turn 2 for third behind Hamilton and Sainz, both of whom would stop again. Here, Verstappen and Red Bull won a race that Ferrari had emphatically thrown away.

Verstappen had to pass Leclerc twice because of his spin, but such was the Ferrari's pace deficit on the hard that he managed it

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Fittingly then, when Sainz was called in three laps later to relinquish the lead, another pitstop was botched. A fumbled rear-left change onto softs meant he was held for a slow 4.6s.

Hamilton finally made his second stop at the end of lap 51 for a switch to softs and came out in fifth, 10s down on Sainz as Russell usurped Leclerc – still struggling on the hards. The Ferrari broke loose through the final corner to give Russell an easy run for second over the line as Ferrari eventually called time on its strategy nightmare and was forced into an additional stop.

Leclerc was now in the same league as the spinning Yuki Tsunoda, and the damaged Latifi and Kevin Magnussen as having required three stops. In none of Pirelli’s pre-race strategy suggestions had a medium-medium-hard been considered, let alone been the optimum, let alone with another stop for softs.

With Verstappen managing the mediums to the flag, including a late VSC for Valtteri Bottas parking up with power loss aboard his Alfa Romeo, he streaked to what had for so long seemed like an unlikely eighth victory of the season by 7.8s. The Mercedes were the next fastest cars in the final phase of the race, with soft-shod Hamilton able to depose Sainz on older tyres and then team-mate Russell for second place.

Despite complaining his tyres had dropped off, Russell too had the legs on Sainz to nail consecutive 2-3 finishes for then Silver Arrows as Perez inflicted more pain on Ferrari in fifth place.

Asked unsubtly by Autosport how reassuring it must be to rely on the team to nail its strategy calls, Verstappen said: “It's incredibly important if you want to fight for a championship. You can't afford many mistakes. It's very hard to always be on the good side. Today, Hannah [Schmitz], our strategist, was insanely calm.

“Nobody really expected this. But we said to each other that we have to remain calm. We did that. We made all the right calls in the race. We pitted it at the right time. We put the right tyres on the car. That was the most important thing today. Ferrari chose the wrong tyres in their final stint before they then pitted again. I think also the call we had in the beginning, to be on the soft, was a bit safer to stay out of trouble and have a bit of grip. It's about little details again.”

In truth, it wasn’t really details that cost Ferrari this time as Sainz reached the chequered flag in fourth and Leclerc in sixth. Granted, the pitstops were often poor. But the fundamental problem was a reluctance to go beyond the numbers and look at the bigger picture.

Leclerc was forced to bail on his hard tyres and switch to softs

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

The Plans A to F that have been instructed over team radio this season shows Ferrari considers how several scenarios might play out. However, this was an unwillingness to blur the lines between the plans, instead hoping the race would unfold in such a way that perfectly fitted one of its pre-selected boxes.

Ferrari team boss Mattia Binotto had to front up yet another media post-mortem to explain how it all went wrong in 2022 and defeat had been snatched from the jaws of victory. Once again, he was unconvincing in his defence – presumably so resolute as to save face. “Our simulations… our analysis… the data said…”, it was overly dependent around the advanced software leading them down this particular strategic path.

There was no room for acting on the fly, as Red Bull had done all afternoon – Christian Horner stressing: “You have to think on your feet… [Ferrari] boxed themselves into a corner”.

Having been the clear pacesetter in FP2 on soft tyres, the Scuderia would later give the sticky rubber a wide berth and pin its hopes on the white walls. Up to the lap of Leclerc’s stop on lap 39, however, neither F1-75 had turned a wheel on the hard tyres all weekend.

"It always feels like there's always something going on, whether it’s reliability, mistakes, whatever. We need to be better putting a weekend together" Charles Leclerc

Binotto did also claim that the car had been much slower than anticipated due to a lack of balance at the front end, which led to the team’s questionable off-beat strategy. But Leclerc’s average lap times were within 0.2s of Verstappen, who had started three rows further back on the grid at a circuit where track position is king. As per the missteps of Silverstone, the Scuderia was seemingly not willing to let Leclerc earn his salt by battling on track from an even footing. Instead, the pitwall was heavy-handed and left its star driver to defend against his championship rival with one hand tied behind his back.

As the month-long interlude before the Belgium GP gets under way, Leclerc is now 80 points adrift of Verstappen and, besides his win in Austria, astonishingly hasn’t graced the podium since Miami eight rounds ago.

“Obviously, a race like this is frustrating,” was Leclerc’s assessment. “We need to get better as a whole. It always feels like there's always something going on, whether it’s reliability, mistakes, whatever. We need to be better putting a weekend together. We have to reset, analyse and to understand where we need to be better. This is extremely important.”

Yes, extremely important to prevent the litany of Ferrari blunders in 2022 from continuing else risk further embarrassment in the public eye, and to put Ferrari in the best possible stead for future championship fights. But as for saving this one, perhaps the critical time for introspection and implementing remedies has already passed.

Verstappen took full advantage of Ferrari's travails and now has an 80-point lead in the standings

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images