The good fortune Red Bull needs to overthrow Hungary favourite Ferrari

From the scorched yellow grass, shirtless fans on the banks and countless sweat patches in the paddock, it’s not difficult to tell that the heat at the Hungaroring has been searing on Friday. For second practice, even though the sun was beginning to set, the mercury touched 34 degrees Celsius. Yet, this time tomorrow, the meteorologists are predicting a downpour. So much so, there’s hushed talk of qualifying being postponed until Sunday morning. And a washout seems to be Red Bull’s best bet of dragging itself back into contention in Budapest.

Historically, these 2.72 miles and 14 corners have been Red Bull territory thanks to the high downforce requirements. But coinciding with the switch to ground-effect for 2022, the inverse is now true. Tighter tracks that dictate more bursts of low-speed acceleration have proved to be happy hunting grounds for Ferrari and its eager engine. The RB18s have, instead, come to the fore at the open, faster sweeps of Jeddah, Baku and Montreal thanks to the top-end punch of its rebadged Honda power unit.

Even still, while Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez weren’t hot favourites, they were unusually off the pace in FP2. Rather than cutting it with the red cars, the defending champion was fourth-fastest and 0.283s adrift during the qualifying simulations, his Mexican team-mate ninth and 0.952s in arrears. Meanwhile, the Scuderia set the benchmark courtesy of Charles Leclerc. He ended the second hour of running top of the pile thanks to his 1m18.445s effort to run two tenths clear of Lando Norris. Sainz clocked third.

Overall FP2 order

Of course, should the rain indeed wreak havoc in time for qualifying, the one-lap glory runs of Friday afternoon will count for little. The leading teams all favoured dry set-ups in anticipation of fairer weather arriving for the grand prix. But, ominously for its chasers, Ferrari was also a nose in front when the cars were cracking on with their race programmes.

Ferrari appeared to have a clear pace advantage over Red Bull at the Hungaroring in hot conditions

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

According to Autosport’s calculations, it was FP1 pacesetter Sainz - not Leclerc - who had the legs over a protracted stint. On the softest-available C4 Pirelli rubber, he ran for a seven-lap stint late in the session. With no anomalous times from a considerable error or stumbling over traffic, the Spaniard posted an average time of 1m23.624s. That gave him a marginal 0.07s advantage over stablemate Leclerc, the Monegasque running with the same compound but having messed up one of his laps.

Verstappen, meanwhile, ran for 11 tours. Discounting the three that were wide of the mark, he levelled out at 1m24.173s. More than half a second slower than the F1-75s. When loaded up with fuel, Perez - falling noticeably further behind Verstappen in recent races as the RB18 is developed - was another six tenths further back.

On the one hand, there appears to be some solace for Red Bull in so far as ran both its drivers on the slower medium C3 yellow-walled tyres. Pirelli’s prediction of a 0.6s offset between the two compounds would appear to completely make up for that that gap. But nevertheless, Verstappen has been relentlessly playing down expectations at every opportunity in the build-up to this weekend.

"I think [Ferrari] are a bit ahead of us and I think it will be hard for us to beat that. I think in the dry we can't compete" Max Verstappen

Autosport FP2 averages

Having missed a quarter of FP2 while the mechanics appeared to pay particular attention to his rear suspension set-up in the garage, Verstappen then emerged only to complain of excessive oscillations through Turns 4 and 11. When he faced the media, little wonder his assessment was: “I think [Ferrari] are a bit ahead of us and I think it will be hard for us to beat that. Overnight, we'll try to close the gap as much as we can… I think in the dry we can't compete.

“[The car is] a bit tricky as expected around here, just trying to find a bit of a balance from high- to low-speed. Sometimes it works a bit better, sometimes a bit more tricky.”

Verstappen cut a downbeat figure after Friday practice

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

Further to Verstappen’s muted expectations and should FP3 be either wet or not take place at all, Ferrari’s decision to stick with the red-walled tyres might pay off handsomely. With the race set for far cooler conditions, the soft tyre could play a more prominent role in the GP than initially foreseen. The Scuderia would then have more data to tap into, even if the track has been cleaned by the rain to deny an exact correlation.

Red Bull might therefore hope that qualifying goes ahead as per on Saturday, only with the rain muddling up the competitive order by overturning the practice pace precedent or by encouraging rival drivers to get too greedy and make mistakes. At a narrow circuit, track position would then go some way to helping the Ferraris stay in the mirrors.

Aside from the weather, as 2022 has borne repeatedly, there are other circumstances outside of Red Bull’s control that could allow it to bag the spoils this weekend. Ferrari has been capable of creating its own downfall thanks to the ongoing questions concerning unreliability - with Leclerc voicing his worry and then told to pit when he queried a lack of torque low down in fourth gear during FP2. Strategy calls have also left much to be desired, with Sainz’s fine run out in Paul Ricard blighted by poorly timed radio messages, an unsafe release and a late pitstop that many reckon cost a podium finish.

Nor, after a smoky spin into the barrier in France, can driver error be ruled out either. Leclerc, who is 63 points adrift of Verstappen as a result, has said it’ll be his aggressive business as usual this weekend. Asked if a change of approach was required, Leclerc said: “I think you learn from any mistakes with your approach… Would I really want to give up maybe one or two tenths to not make a mistake? Probably not. So, it’s those kinds of mistakes that I just want to look ahead and that’s it.

“When you are fighting with the limits sometimes mistakes can happen, and I think this was a kind of mistake where I just went too far and that’s it… There’s nothing that will help me, dwelling on my mistake or staying in the past on that mistake. I did that mistake, it cost me lots of points, I am aware of it. And that’s it. Now I just need to move on.”

Leclerc remains steadfast in his approach despite his agonising French GP crash from the lead

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Should Ferrari and Leclerc deliver a fault-free performance, though, they might still not have it all their own way. Sorely missing so far in 2022 but as occurred at this venue last year when Esteban Ocon graced the top step of the podium for the first time, F1 is overdue an upset. Perhaps McLaren can step up.

After the gains through Silverstone, Spielberg and southern France, Mercedes is stumbling so far at the Hungaroring. Lewis Hamilton voiced his surprise at being 1.9s off the pace after the opening round of quick laps in FP2. George Russell, meanwhile, was battling to get on top of front-right locking into Turn 1. The result was Russell, the better of the W13s, only ran to eighth fastest behind Fernando Alonso (sixth) and Sebastian Vettel (seventh). His average time from a 10-lap stint on the mediums was a comparatively distant 1m25.315s.

With the Brit’s soft-tyre race pace worthy of a 1m23.917s average lap (to split the Ferraris on the same compound and the medium-shod Red Bulls), he is set to be in the mix at the business end

That paves the way for the brace of MCL36s to feature towards the front. This term’s Woking creation, unlike its predecessors, no longer wants particularly for grip in lower-speed corners. Its issues are when the going gets quicker. That allowed Norris to bag second in FP2 and Daniel Ricciardo fifth.

With the Brit’s soft-tyre race pace worthy of a 1m23.917s average lap (to split the Ferraris on the same compound and the medium-shod Red Bulls), he is set to be in the mix at the business end. That is all the more important after McLaren, last time out, slipped behind Alpine for the first time since Australia in the battle for fourth place in the constructors’ championship.

Could McLaren spring a surprise in Hungary?

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images